Fed Projects Higher Employment and GDP Growth for 2013

The Federal Reserve released its latest economic projections (link opens a PDF) today, and things are looking better than before.

After the last round of estimates were released in September, hinting at lower GDP growth for 2013, these latest projections point to a more positive outlook. From its previous range of 2% to 2.3%, the Fed has tightened its estimate to 2.2% to 2.3%. Growth should continue pick up over the next couple years, with 2014 GDP growth estimated between 2.8% and 3.2%, and 2015 growth between 3% and 3.4%.

Source: Federal Reserve. 

The news is good for employment as well. From previous guidance between 7.1% and 7.3%, the 2013 unemployment rate is now generally expected to clock in between 7% and 7.1%. Projections continue to push rates down further in following years, dropping as low as 6.3% in 2014, 5.8% in 2015, and 5.3% in 2016.

Source: Federal Reserve. 

Inflation, generally considered to be the least worrisome aspect of the economic recovery, should continue to steadily rise to long-run levels. The 2013 general estimate range puts inflation between 0.9% and 1%, with a consistent rise to somewhere between 1.7% and 2% for 2016.

Source: Federal Reserve. 


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