SolarCity's Greatest Move Was the One You Didn't Hear About

When you combine the near-celebrity status of Elon Musk and the red-hot solar-energy industry, it seems almost impossible that anything SolarCity (SCTY.DL) does would fly under the radar. Surprisingly, though, the company's acquisition of module installation Zep Solar hasn't garnered much attention. It's a shame, because this deal could mean more to its profitability than any other deal it has made this year. Let's look at why this deal was important and how it could help the company reach its goal of 1 million installed systems by 2018.

Seen a house with panels like this one? There's a 26% chance they come from SolarCity.

Buying a compliment, not a competitor
One of the biggest misconceptions about solar companies is that many investors lump them all into the same basket. Let's be clear: SolarCity, Zep Solar, and panel makers such as SunPower (SPWR -2.17%) are wildly different businesses that don't have as much overlap as one would think. Zep Solar specializes in manufacturing mounting and grounding equipment for panels, whereas Sunpower builds the panels themselves and SoalrCity is a panel user.

This is what made the move so attractive for both companies. For Zep Solar, SolarCity's market share in residential photovoltaic installations is greater than the eight next largest competitors combined, and it's targeting 1 million customers by 2018. The most recent quarterly release shows that the company has just over 82,000 customers. So getting there would result in a compound annual growth rate of greater than 75% for the next four years. To that end, getting hitched with SolarCity gives Zep Solar a built-in customer who will have a voracious appetite for its equipment. 

Converesly for SolarCity, it secures a source of mounting equipment for installations, reduces costs, and allows for standardization of installations that will in turn reduce installation time. Ultimately, this will translate into installation cost reduction, which represents 72% of cost of goods sold. In buying Zep, it's also buying the market leader in residential mounting equipment leader, which is a market that expects to grow by 16% annually over the next five years to as much as $1.5 billion. In reality, though, that is just a cherry on top of the cost savings.

The potential for cost savings on the installation side of the business cannot be overstated. Just look at the breakdown of company revenue.

Source: SolarCity Q3 2013 10-Q.

Low margins in energy systems sales is a product of the business model. Many of the offerings SolarCity provides involve zero upfront payments from the customer for panels and installation, which is what makes SolarCity so compelling to customers. The downside of this model is the company is forced to eat the installation costs, which you can see in the company's system sales gross margins. System sales alone will never be a highly profitable segment of the business, and investors shouldn't expect too much from this segment, either. But any significant cost control on that side will go a long way in increasing the overall profitability of the business. 

3 deals for 1 million customers
The Zep Solar deal itself isn't going to get SolarCity to 1 million installations because it doesn't really expand the customer base. However, the combination of this deal with the company's other recent moves, it paints a much rosier picture.

• Zep Solar: Increasing the customer base by 12 times in four years will take more than just a spectacular sales team, the operations team will need to be fantastic as well. As I mentioned, Zep Solar provides a decrease in installation costs and reduced installation time. This will make the operations of the company more efficient and allow an individual crew to do more installations per year.
• Tesla Motors (TSLA -3.55%): Using Tesla's battery technology for on-site energy storage will reduce the issue of intermittent power generation. This will also allow customers to skirt net metering issues and provide extra power when panels can't generate power. Ultimately, it makes SolarCity's offerings more attractive to customers and will help keep its market share lead over competitors such as SunPower and NRG Energy (NRG -3.95%) that have been making a splash in the market as well. 
• Wal-Mart (WMT -0.65%): Can you name a better client to get 13% of your business from than the world's largest big-box retailer that wants to generate 7 billion kilowatt hours from alternative energy by the end of the decade? For the past couple of years, SolarCity has been cultivating a relationship with Wal-Mart and has done about 130 installations at Wal-Mart stores this year. With solar saving Wal-Mart $2 million a year on utility bills in 2012, you can rest assured that it will continue to tap SolarCity for more installations down the road. 

SolarCity estimates that 1 million customers would equate to about 6,000 megawatts of installations. That would be equal to all solar panel installations in the United States between 2010 and 2012, a very ambitious goal to say the least.  Besides, getting only halfway there would still equate to a jaw-dropping compound annual growth rate of 53%. 

What a Fool believes
The Zep Solar deal and the other ones SolarCity has made this year make no guarantee that it will get to 1 million installations by 2018, but they are a clear indication that management is pulling all the right levers to head in that direction. For investors in SolarCity, acquiring Zep Solar for just over $150 million may have not registered as too much of a blip on your radar, but the cost savings it could deliver to the company may very well be more significant to the performance of the stock than any other deal this year. Shares of SolarCity are up almost 375% this year, and investors would be crazy to think the company can repeat that performance in 2014. However, don't be surprised if the company posts impressive numbers as it reaches for that mythical 1 millionth customer.