When a Network Effect Like Snapchat's Are Overvalued

What's the difference between a LinkedIn and Snapchat user? One is a bit more permanent.

Jan 6, 2014 at 10:30AM

When determining the value of certain companies and their competitive advantages, the number of users or customers is often highlighted. These are called network effects -- the more users who take part, the more valuable that service becomes for everyone.

However, somewhere in the shift from traditional industries to high-tech start-ups, the exact value of a network has gained more than the value it can actually create.

Tangible versus ephemeral
Whereas the network effects of interchangeable parts for all sorts of machinery are clear and tangible, the value of advertising to Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) network are still a bit unclear. For example, back in October, a Forrester survey ranked Facebook at the bottom of advertising effectiveness behind LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) and Twitter. Whereas a marketplace like eBay obviously gains from more sellers and buyers of physical products, smartphone application Snapchat's user base amounting to a $3 billion valuation may not make much sense.

Weak networks
As the ease of floating in-between and among these networks increases, the value of network effects should fall. This has yet to happen, as valuations speak to the belief of a strong network lock-in. While joining the Microsoft Office network meant that a user had to pay a non-zero amount, joining Snapchat has little cost beyond a few taps on a smartphone. And while that's great for quickly building a user base, it creates a weak network effect in comparison to one with more initial cost.

This idea of weak network effects should be applied to most online social networks, especially ones that provide a free service. Now that we don't even need to sit down at a computer to join a network, or fill out any form, or pay anything, the value of each user should be minuscule.

Monetizing weak networks
That's not to say that these companies can't make money and easily monetize through advertising. Facebook's income statement is a testament to the amount advertisers are willing to pay to access these networks. In the last quarter, advertising brought in $1.8 billion of Facebook's income, 89% of its total for the quarter. However, when a company like Snapchat springs up and sports nothing but a small tweak to previously offered services like Instagram, one should remember the outcome of past fads. The barriers to entry for making a service go viral are minimal. And while Beanie Babies at least had a profit margin to reap while they were popular, Snapchat has little more than server costs.

The lesson
When looking at a company that uses network effects to support its value, make sure they actually reap value from their network. LinkedIn is a great example. While it offers plenty of its service for free, it also sells premium subscriptions that brought in $80 million last quarter and hiring solutions that brought in $225 million. This is in addition to its advertising revenue -- what most other social networks solely depend on -- of $88 million. And once a company buys into its network to find employees, and that becomes the standard way for a company to find talent, it becomes a much stronger lock-in effect.

Beware of weak social networks. They can spring up as easily as they can fall apart.

Investing picks in strong networks
Strong network effects can lead to fantastic returns. And, such a quality is only one to look for to match Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner's 100-bagger stock pick wins. You can uncover his scientific approach to crushing the market and his carefully chosen 6 picks for ultimate growth instantly, because he's making this premium report free for you today. Click here now for access.

Fool contributor Dan Newman owns shares of eBay. The Motley Fool recommends eBay, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter. The Motley Fool owns shares of eBay, Facebook, and LinkedIn. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning

Don't be one of them.

Jun 12, 2015 at 5:01PM

Admitting fear is difficult.

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KPMG advises we're "on the cusp of revolutionary change" coming much "sooner than you think."

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Yet according to one J.D. Power and Associates survey, only 1 in 5 Americans are even interested in this technology, much less ready to invest in it. Needless to say, you haven't missed your window of opportunity. 

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David Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and American Express. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Google, and Coca-Cola.We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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