Why Shares of Boyd Gaming Company Popped

Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Jan 31, 2014 at 6:35PM

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our thesis.

What: Shares of Boyd Gaming Company (NYSE:BYD) were on a hot streak today, gaining as much as 12%, and finishing up 10% after updating its guidance last night.

So what: Ahead of its earnings report coming out shortly, the casino chain actually said it expects results to come in worse than its previous guidance. It now sees adjusted EBITDA from its Borgata property at $15 to $17 million, compared to previous guidance of $22 to $24 million, and it lowered its EPS guidance for the quarter to -$0.21 to -$0.27 from -$0.15 to -$0.20. CEO Keith Smith said, "Despite short-term challenges, we remain optimistic about the overall direction of the business."

Now what: The market's reaction to this news was bizarre. Almost always, shares sell off after lowered guidance, but this holiday season was a strange one. Retailers across the board announced terrible preliminary reports as consumers seemed to stay home and keep their money close. Casinos are a very cyclical business, so the market likely expected that attitude to carry over to Boyd, and thought the effects of the weak holiday season would be worse. Despite the market's reaction, I'd be wary of a company popping on a loss, and would also avoid a casino stock without access to hot properties in Macau or Singapore.

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A Financial Plan on an Index Card

Keeping it simple.

Aug 7, 2015 at 11:26AM

Two years ago, University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack wrote his entire financial plan on an index card.

It blew up. People loved the idea. Financial advice is often intentionally complicated. Obscurity lets advisors charge higher fees. But the most important parts are painfully simple. Here's how Pollack put it:

The card came out of chat I had regarding what I view as the financial industry's basic dilemma: The best investment advice fits on an index card. A commenter asked for the actual index card. Although I was originally speaking in metaphor, I grabbed a pen and one of my daughter's note cards, scribbled this out in maybe three minutes, snapped a picture with my iPhone, and the rest was history.

More advisors and investors caught onto the idea and started writing their own financial plans on a single index card.

I love the exercise, because it makes you think about what's important and forces you to be succinct.

So, here's my index-card financial plan:


Everything else is details. 

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