If you're reading this article, chances are that you heard about the blowout quarter Michael Kors (CPRI -3.82%) announced earlier this month. However, what you may have overlooked is the incredible performance the company has had in the first nine-months of fiscal 2014 compared to its results a year ago. The statistics we are about to go over are a testament to the strength of the brand and have propelled shares higher by more than 75%.
Source: Michael Kors.
Fiscal 2014 in review
Here's a breakdown of each quarterly report that Michael Kors has released so far in fiscal 2014, how each report compared to analysts' expectations, and how each report stacked up against results from the prior year:
First-quarter report -- Aug. 6:
| Metric | Reported | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $0.61 | $0.49 |
| Revenue | $640.86 million | $570.77 million |
- Earnings per share increased by 79.4%
- Revenue increased by 54.5%
- Comparable-store sales grew by 27.3%
Second-quarter report -- Nov. 5:
| Metric | Reported | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $0.71 | $0.68 |
| Revenue | $740.30 million | $725.91 million |
- Earnings per share increased by 44.9%
- Revenue increased by 38.9%
- Comparable-store sales grew by 22.9%
Third-quarter report -- Feb. 4:
| Metric | Reported | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $1.11 | $0.86 |
| Revenue | $1.01 billion | $859.94 million |
- Earnings per share increased by 73.4%
- Revenue increased by 59%
- Comparable-store sales grew by 27.8%
Year-to-date results:
| Metric | First 3 Quarters of 2014 | First 3 Quarters of 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $2.44 | $1.48 |
| Revenue | $2.393 billion | $1.585 billion |
For the first nine months of fiscal 2014, Michael Kors' earnings per share increased 64.9% and revenue increased 51% from the same period a year ago. Comparable-stores sales have increased 27.3%, 22.9%, and 27.8% in the first three quarters respectively, resulting in a 26.2% growth overall. This is an absolutely incredible performance and it has been fueled by the growing popularity of the brand and the company's worldwide expansion. Here's the performance of Michael Kors' stock since the first day of fiscal 2014, March 31, 2013:
What could the fourth quarter hold?
As a finale to the already record-setting year, analysts currently expect 30%-plus growth from the company on both the top and bottom lines. The report will not be released until late May or early June, but here are the current consensus analyst estimates:
| Metric | Expected | Year-Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $0.68 | $0.50 |
| Revenue | $859.90 million | $597.15 million |
These expectations call for Michael Kors' earnings per share to increase by 36% and revenue to increase by 44% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013. If this were to come true, Michael Kors' earnings per share for the year would come in at $3.12 and revenue would rise above $3.25 billion, which would result in yearly increases of 58.4% and 49.1%, respectively. These are very attainable estimates and I believe the company will surpass them, continuing its streak of better-than-expected results. This will set high standards for 2015, but I do not think Michael Kors will have a problem rising to the challenge.
Others can only dream
As Michael Kors has been having the best year in its history, Coach (TPR -2.16%) has seen much of the opposite. Take a look at Coach's financial results for the first six months of its 2014 fiscal year:
| Metric | First 6 Months of 2014 | First 6 Months of 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $1.83 | $2.00 |
| Revenue | $2.57 billion |
$2.67 billion |
For the first six months of fiscal 2014, Coach's earnings per share declined by 8.5% and revenue declined by 3.8% from the year-ago period. North America has been a nightmare for Coach, as total sales declined by 9% and comparable-store sales fell by 6.8% and 13.6% for that region in the first and second quarters respectively; a 13.6% decline in comparable-store sales during the holiday quarter is horrible when you consider that Michael Kors saw a 27.8% increase during this same time frame, which proves that the demand for luxury products was there. Coach's stock has fallen about 14% year to date, and the weakness could continue until the company can deliver on earnings. I would avoid this stock indefinitely, regardless of how "inexpensive" it becomes.
The Foolish bottom line
Michael Kors has been on an absolute tear since it went public in December 2011, and it has risen more than 390% from its IPO price of $20. Earnings have been the driving force behind this performance, as the company has exceeded analyst expectations in every report it has released; I believe this trend will continue in the fourth quarter, adding on top of the already record-setting year. Keep a close eye on Michael Kors and strongly consider initiating a position, or adding to an existing one, as this stock seems destined to continue its run higher.
