Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
So what: Along with the downgrade, analyst Dan Galves planted a target range of $200-$220, bracketing the current price of about $210. While momentum traders might be attracted to the red-hot shares, Galves thinks that much of Tesla's growth prospects, although quite attractive, are already baked into the valuation.
Now what: According to Deutsche, Tesla's risk to reward trade-off is pretty balanced at the moment. "Production will ramp to 48k annualized by 4Q14 from 29k today (vs prior target of 40k by YE), driven by a meaningful increase in battery supply (already known) but also construction of essentially a second assembly line (Model S/X total capacity goes to ~80k)," noted Galves. "Tesla will make a significant announcement next week surrounding the 'giga-factory' that will likely drive a capital raise. We are downgrading to Hold from Buy on valuation." Given all the uncertainty continuing to surround Tesla's long-term adoption trajectory, it's tough to disagree with Deutsche's cautiousness.
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