Why National CineMedia, Inc. Shares Got Dumped

Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Feb 21, 2014 at 3:32PM

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) were down as much as 23% today following a weak outlook in its fourth-quarter earnings report.

So what: The movie-theater advertiser actually delivered a strong quarter as sales increased 5.9% to $122.7 million, beating estimates of $117.6 million, and its per-share profit of $0.21 also topped the analyst consensus at $0.16. CEO Kurt Hall called 2013 "another successful year" for the company, and said it "made progress on our longer-term strategy to broaden our client base," among other areas. The company also announced a special dividend of $0.50, which will be paid out in March.

Now what: What forced the sell-off was the company's first-quarter guidance, as its sees revenue falling, even after adjusting for the sale of its Fathom division, which it completed on Dec. 26. It sees a range of $67 million to $72 million, below analyst estimates of $79.5 million and down from an adjusted total of $73.7 million a year ago. For the year, it sees revenue of $430 million to $440 million, a 1% to 3% improvement from 2013, with flat EBITDA. Profits may not be growing anytime soon for National CineMedia, but investors can take solace in the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders with its special dividend and regular dividend yield of 5.6%. 

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A Financial Plan on an Index Card

Keeping it simple.

Aug 7, 2015 at 11:26AM

Two years ago, University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack wrote his entire financial plan on an index card.

It blew up. People loved the idea. Financial advice is often intentionally complicated. Obscurity lets advisors charge higher fees. But the most important parts are painfully simple. Here's how Pollack put it:

The card came out of chat I had regarding what I view as the financial industry's basic dilemma: The best investment advice fits on an index card. A commenter asked for the actual index card. Although I was originally speaking in metaphor, I grabbed a pen and one of my daughter's note cards, scribbled this out in maybe three minutes, snapped a picture with my iPhone, and the rest was history.

More advisors and investors caught onto the idea and started writing their own financial plans on a single index card.

I love the exercise, because it makes you think about what's important and forces you to be succinct.

So, here's my index-card financial plan:


Everything else is details. 

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