For as much positive reaction as we've seen to the first trailer for Guardians of the Galaxy, the movie still ranks as one of the riskiest in Marvel Studios history. How much does parent Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS ) have to lose? Host Ellen Bowman puts the question to analysts Nathan Alderman and Tim Beyers in this week's episode of "1-Up on Wall Street," The Motley Fool's Web show in which we talk about the big-money names behind your favorite movies, toys, video games, comics, and more.
A lack of meaningful comparisons might be troubling to some, Nathan says. Especially since DIsney's most recent attempt at a large-scale space opera (i.e., John Carter) flopped at the box office, resulting in $200 million in studio writedowns. Guardians may not have enough brand equity to avoid a similar fate.
The good news? What Guardians lacks in brand equity, Marvel has in spades. The studio is already tapping that well by marketing the film as from "the studio that brought you Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, The Avengers." So long as the film delivers a similar sensibility -- the sort of action-comedy blend fans have come to love -- Nathan sees the bet paying off.
Tim agrees, noting that Marvel has already spent the better part of a year getting fans engaged with the characters via a new comic book series written by Brian Michael Bendis. The tone of the trailer will feel familiar to readers of the comics, he says.
Meanwhile, the trailer itself appears to have struck a chord with 13.8 million views over the past two weeks. Guardians was also a social media hit with more than 88,000 mentions in the first 12 hours of release, noticeably more than the 75,000 Man of Steel achieved in its first 24 hours on the Internet. Billboard also reports a big increase in sales of Blue Swede's 1974 hit, "Hooked on a Feeling," which provided backing for the trailer. Add it up, Tim says, and there's every reason to believe Guardians has the potential to be a Marvel-sized winner.
Now it's your turn to weigh in using the comments box below. Do you expect Guardians of the Galaxy to be a hit? Please watch the video as Ellen puts Tim and Nathan on the spot, and be sure to check back here often for more "1-Up on Wall Street" segments.
Get Hollywood to pay you
The beauty of investing in entertainment stocks is that the studios pay you to enjoy the things you love. Yet not every bet pays out as well as it might. Take cable providers. Despite efforts to become more like studios -- offering original content -- there's little doubt that the model you've known is going away, leaving a $2.2 trillion vacuum that a handful of companies are battling to control. Who wins? Our analysts favor three businesses. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.