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Why ‘Captain America: The Winter Soldier’ Won’t Be Marvel’s Next Blockbuster

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Captain America may lead the Avengers, but the character has shown to be less of a cinematic draw than his teammates Iron Man and Thor. Part of that may be because the first movie starring Cap took place in the past and had a very different look than other films from Disney's (NYSE: DIS  ) Marvel cinematic universe. A larger part, though, is simply a result of the character having less appeal.

Iron Man and Captain America by the numbers

Captain America brought in $176 million domestically and $193 in foreign box office for a worldwide total of $370 million, according to Box Office Mojo. That's good -- a hit by most standards -- but not a blockbuster by any means. Let's look at how the rest of the Marvel releases in the current universe have fared.

  • Iron Man (2008): $318 million U.S. plus $266 million foreign equals $585 million
  • The Incredible Hulk (2008): $134 million U.S. plus $128 million foreign equals $263 million
  • Iron Man 2 (2010): $312 million U.S. plus $311 million foreign equals $623 million
  • Thor (2011): $181 million U.S. plus $268 million foreign equals $449 million
  • The Avengers (2012): $623 million U.S. plus $895 million foreign equals $1.5 billion 
  • Iron Man 3 (2013): $404 million U.S. plus $806 million foreign equals $1.2 billion
  • Thor: The Dark World (2013): $206 million U.S. plus $435 million foreign equals $641 million
Of all the Marvel films released since the first "Iron Man" movie, only The Incredible Hulk fared worse at the box office than Captain America. That film, largely considered a dud, is the first of the "Avengers" character movies to not earn a sequel.

The Avengers bait and switch won't work

My colleague Jake Mann argues that Marvel executives say Captain America: The Winter Soldier is "much more" important in terms of Marvel Universe story development than Iron Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World. This, he explains, likely means more development of the Nick Fury/Black Widow/SHIELD story, which was absent from The Dark World.

That is likely true, but the fanboys who will be drawn in to see how Cap's story ties into the bigger Avengers picture are already coming to see this movie. If SHIELD were a big draw then the TV show "Marvel's Agents of SHIELD" would draw more than the 5.46 million viewers for its March 4 episode drew. Those ratings make the show Monday night's eighth biggest draw -- not the kind of audience that makes a difference for movie box office. 

How well will Captain America: The Winter Solider do?
It seems reasonable to think that the "Captain America" sequel will outdraw the first movie based on the increased awareness of the Marvel cinematic universe since The Avengers. The closest comparison is the "Thor," films which increased box office take from $449 million for the first movie to $641 million for the sequel, a 42% increase.

Based on that logic, the "Captain America" sequel should do 142% of the first film's $370 million global box office take to bring in around $525 million. That's good, but it's from from a billion dollars and it may not even do that well. 

The Winter Soldier has a fresh feel 
My colleague Mr. Mann argues that the film will do well because it breaks the Marvel formula and is "an action flick mixed with a political/espionage thriller." That could be a positive, but it also could be a negative.

The titular "Winter Soldier" is largely an unknown quantity. Audiences don't know the villain, and most of the causal fans won't know the comic book lore the film is based around. The movie looks complicated in a way that Iron Man (rich guy in a robot suit) and Thor (good-looking god-type) weren't. 

Who is the Winter Soldier?
"It remains to be seen if the titular villain will draw audiences," Mr, Mann wrote in his piece. That's a decided understatement, and it's why The Winter Soldier may not reach the 42% growth that the second "Thor" film did. Thor: The Dark World had Tom Hiddleston as Loki, the villain from The Avengers who despite his villainy is beloved by audiences.

The "Captain America" sequel has the Winter Soldier, a character that's important in the Marvel Universe but an unknown to casual fans. The first Cap movie at least had the Red Skull (still not that well known, but Captain America's most famous villain.) 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier will be a hit, but not a blockbuster
If the movie is good, Captain America: The Winter Soldier will bring in more than $500 million or maybe even $600 million if the reviews are stellar. The film is facing an uphill battle to reach the heights of Thor: The Dark World, let alone the billion-dollar status of Iron Man 3 because of the movie's titular character.

Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 3 both did more than double their domestic box office totals overseas. The first "Captain America" film barely beat its U.S. haul in the rest of the world. It seems likely that the sequel won't massively increase its appeal in the rest of the world either because Cap is so singularly American. The rest of the Avengers may be tied to the United States, but they fight broadly for the world. Captain America is a U.S. solider, and that might not play as well in foreign markets.

Captain America: The Winter Solider will keep the Marvel universe moving merrily along, but there is a better chance it's a box office stumble than Marvel's next billion-dollar film.

To read my colleague's counter-argument, click here.

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Read/Post Comments (44) | Recommend This Article (4)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 11:57 AM, CalvinballPro wrote:

    This writer has a poor opinion of movie-goers if they think that a Captain America plot will be too "complicated" next to Thor and Iron Man.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 11:58 AM, Wire wrote:

    "Those ratings make the show Monday night's eighth biggest draw -- not the kind of audience that makes a difference for movie box office."

    I don't know. For a show that airs on Tuesday night to be the eighth biggest draw on Monday seems pretty major to me.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:00 PM, Sugoda wrote:

    This writer is just looking to get attention for having something negative to say about a movie getting huge hype.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:07 PM, JimG wrote:

    Trying to pick a movie success is a fool's errand. (no pun intended) If anyone truly has a handle as to what will be and won't be a successful movie or movie character, they wouldn't be writing second rate articles like this one. They'll be making millions in Hollywood.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:20 PM, captainblah wrote:

    First off you're speculating. You obviously don't know the Marvel universe.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:24 PM, laethyn wrote:

    Since this is Motley Fool, I'm guessing this is somehow going to be caused by the WiiU being a total failure.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:29 PM, mrcgregory wrote:

    What constitutes a Blockbuster these days?? do you need to make 1 billion on each film? Yesterday you are posting an article of how this movie will earn atleast 600million dollars, sounds like a blockbuster to me unless the budget was over 300million dollars. Today you are posting how it is not going to be a blockbuster, so are you covering all your bases?

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:36 PM, cubsblue23 wrote:

    This article is so full of holes I thought it was about swiss cheese. SHIELD is #1 in it's time-slot. #1 in the most sought after demographic. This movie is more than SHIELD though, it looks to be a blockbuster. The reasons given for it not to do so are simply bogus.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:38 PM, 69camaross wrote:

    Hate to tell you this, but 500 million is a blockbuster. That's some serious cash, and before all these other successful Marvel/DC films, it would have been considered a huge blockbuster.

    For comparison: Wall-E pulled in 533 million and is definitely in the blockbuster category.

    Star Trek only grossed 400 million and was definitely a blockbuster.

    Not to mention, Captain America is the only marvel film that my 60 year old mother went to see.

    So, yeah, you need to rethink what you write.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 12:42 PM, swilkerson wrote:

    This writer is a complete idiot. Are you saying a movie has to make a billion dollars to be considered a blockbuster? I remember people saying the same thing about Thor 2; how it was expeted to flop, and it did great. As for Iron Man 3 you say it's about a rich guy in a suit? Are you serious? Is that all you took away from Iron Man? And just because SHIELD is not doing as well in the ratings, that has nothing to do with Captain America. The reason SHIELD was struggling is because they have hardly any superheroes appearing on the show. As for Winter Soldier beinng an "unknown" he was Bucky in the first movie and he eventually became Captain America after Steve Rogers. Do your homework and quit being a negative idiot.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:02 PM, hectoruno wrote:

    I do not follow the logic. Because a TV show with different characters, huge budget constraints and set in a different environment is not doing the greatest a large budget film is going to flop. By that logic we should watch an NCIS movie set in a different city with different people because the show is doing well. Mashes last episode was for years the most watched television event ever but After Mash flopped.

    To know if a Movie will do good or not is to measure buzz on the movie not something else set kind of in the same universe.

    It was know months before it opened that the Lone Ranger was going to flop.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:12 PM, prayforwar wrote:

    Just earlier there was an article saying why this movie would be the next block buster. Make up your freaking mind.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:16 PM, TheFume wrote:

    Hey Fools, stay with stocks. Predicting movies is not your thing. I can't wait to come back to this article in another month to laugh at Daniel's expense.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:36 PM, TMFMileHigh wrote:


    I did a bit of number-crunching after Monday night's early screening, and judging by history and the resulting buzz, I think there's a strong case for "Winter Soldier" earning a *minimum* of $600 million:

    And to answer an earlier poster, yes, I'd call that a blockbuster result, especially if you think that Marvel spent the same $170 mil to produce "Winter Soldier" as it did to produce "Thor: The Dark World."

    I'd also point out that early audiences tests have Marvel so confident that Kevin Feige has already greenlit Cap 3 with the Russos back at the helm.

    FWIW and Foolish best,



    TMFMileHigh in CAPS and on the boards

    @milehighfool on Twitter

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:41 PM, dmjacobs2988 wrote:

    The first Captain America flew under the radar for me. This was before I learned they were interconnecting the superheroes and beginning the whole Avengers thing. I didn't even know about it until I spotted the DVD in a store and I picked it up on a whim. I definitely wished I saw it in theaters (I also didn't see Iron Man 1 or 2 in theaters). Is Winter Soldier going to be good? It seems to be a play on the good old fashioned American spirit facing a treacherous and two-faced government that we see today. Not only that, but Bucky will legitimately be the Winter Soldier which is awesome that they are sticking to what the comics portrayed (looking at the lame plot twist and story-line in Iron Man 3). I've been more excited about seeing Winter Soldier than Iron Man and Thor this time.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 1:41 PM, usmc0170 wrote:

    First of all, I agree with most of the users. It will be a successful movie period. The issue with this movie that many people will have is (as was the first movie) that Capt America is played by someone who already played a Marvel Character (Johnny Storm) in a different film. I still cannot understand why they didn't get a different person to play him. But, that aside, this story line is one of the best storylines in the Marvel universe. Unlike the 1st, it is set in modern time, with Capt America still trying to adjust to his new timeline, and taking a roll back with the US Government. When viewers find out who the winter soldier is (again, this is no surprise to comic book fans) they will be captivated with the story line.

    Marvel has done what DC has tried but failed to do. Bring comic book characters and their complexities to life on the big screen. The Batman/Superman movie will most likely turn into JLA, but still will not be able to pull off what the avengers have done. JLA was a very serious comic that did not have the comedic timing as does Avengers.

    This writer was entitled to his opinion, even if it was wrong in every way shape and form. This movie will be a success and even a blockbuster and will probably do as well or better than Dark World. Spiderman reboot was way more creative than the last series and will continue the Marvel phenom this year along with X-Men (although that one I reserve the right to say it may flop since they still refuse to update the trailer and show any CGI for this movie).

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 2:15 PM, Cliffhanger77 wrote:

    $500 million IS considered to be a blockbuster. It would be hard to approach "Avengers" and "Iron Man 3" billion-plus territory, but sheesh, half a billion is enough to make any studio very happy! I think Marvel will be just fine with that.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 2:20 PM, Jarky wrote:

    It probably won't be a blockbuster because, seriously, the first movie wasn't terrible but it was nothing special. But they needed to make one for Captain America so it wouldn't seem weird when he showed up in Avengers. I'm doubting a sequel will improve much on his saga.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 2:58 PM, MistaMann wrote:

    Wow, where to begin?

    Hulk *is* getting a sequel, it's been announced.

    Agents of SHIELD airs on Tuesdays, not Mondays.

    The Avengers is exactly *why* people have been making phase 2 movies successful.

    The most common criticism if Agents of SHIELD is that it doesn't have superheroes. Pretending that audiences just have some aversion to SHIELD is wholly unsupported.

    Motley Fool needs to stop paying people who don't do their research. There are literally thousands of other writers who I imagine would jump at an opportunity like this, and would do a spot of research prior to publication.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 3:26 PM, Smurfkillersquee wrote:

    I'm starting to see why this site is called motley FOOL. First. Check your grammer. I saw at least 3 grammer mistakes in your article.

    Second, this movie will do well. We saw with Thor that Avengers made all the characters FAR more popular even individually. Hell, everyone I know was demanding a Hulk movie with the new actor and I was right there with them. Thor wasn't really that great a character, but the movie got made to set up avengers. Same with Cap's movie. I was never a fan of Captain America OR Thor, but the actors have really done great jobs with their parts and I actually can't wait to see the new captain america.

    I normally wouldn't say this, but you guys REALLY don't know what you're talking about most of the time.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 3:54 PM, Allend406 wrote:

    Are you competing with Tim Beyers to see who knows the least about comic books.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 4:38 PM, Wonderer wrote:

    I watched "The Avengers" because of Captain America, and, will of course the Winter Soldier Figures may not be as expected by Daniel Kline, but speaking of "cinematic draw" he failed to notice that the word America(n) is not as popular in other countries. The other heroes may have been American products/creation, but Captain America sounds very American, you figure it out. Considering this, Captain America still leads all earnings.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 4:48 PM, Jojo1979 wrote:

    I am so tired of yahoo using this motley fool out let to fill in their news feed. This is another example of the waste of space most of these articles are. They put a big headline to get your attention then you click on it only to realized you have been duped to an opinion piece by someone who doesnt have the grasp on all the available information. I mean they are worst than most CNN and FOX reporters. I wish there was a way to block motley fool from our feeds.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 5:01 PM, RANGER1965 wrote:


    I believe a good book on critical thinking, and perhaps a tinge of research on the Marvel universe would be helpful to Mr. Kline.

    He sounds like my grandpa who hated science fiction, fantasy, and anything related to super heroes.

    Wait a sec.....Grandpa? Is that you?

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 5:12 PM, Richardragan wrote:

    From what i have seen about this movie it looks like its going to be good . You can bet im going to see it .This Daniel Kline wouldnt know a good movie if it bit him on his rear side . This moron is the one that said Guardians of the Galaxy will be a flop what a moron .Its going to be a big hit for Disney .With Motley Fool hiring a dummy like him tells me not to trust them with any of my investments in the future ..

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 6:30 PM, JMCodd1 wrote:

    From the trailers viewed to hearing coworkers and friends talk about upcoming movie, the ideas presented in this article are absurd.

    Before making other claims against the success of movies like these, maybe the author needs to remember one thing.

    Marvel Universe has had at least three individuals take up the role of the Foolkiller. Beware

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 7:18 PM, PAJohnDoe wrote:


    I'm not sure that ANY issues were caused by Chris Evans having already played a Marvel hero, and I'm not upset at all , because he's an awesome Cap AND a fine Johnny Storm. There was certainly enough time between FF and Cap 1, and the universes (even though they're both Marvel) were far enough removed that there's no confusion. The FF films aren't so beloved or held in such high regard (until the reboot comes out and all the obligatory "NOTHING can touch the originals" talk begins) that anyone would find a way to put what was one of the best parts of those films to better use elsewhere. That would be like getting riled up because someone cast Bruce Willis as a cop in something. "But he was a cop in Die Hard! I take issue with that!". There are different kinds of cops just as there are certain kinds of superheroes, and as long as they're not phoning it in or just doing the same performance in two unrelated films, I think they should just hire the best guy for the job, and I think we got that. That said, I'd like to see Michael Chiklis, also formerly of the FF, as Kingpin in The Daredevil TV show or something.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 7:21 PM, PAJohnDoe wrote:

    I doubt Anyone would have a problem with Marvel finding a way to put one of the best parts of the FF movies to better use, I meant. I thought I'd proofread that. Whoops .

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 7:31 PM, msorrentino wrote:

    Articles like this make me want to puke sometimes. Here's a radical idea; how about wait till the movie is actually out to make judgments?

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 9:18 PM, Boltman321 wrote:

    The first movie was not up to expectations because they deviated from the original story. It was his extensive World War II experience that made him qualified to lead. Instead he went on only two missions before being frozen and was never a "Rockette" in the original story. It was cast well but the story was lame.

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2014, at 11:48 PM, msorrentino wrote:

    @Boltman321 it would have been utterly impossible for them to incorporate all of Cap's WWII stories into one, two and half hour film and still set things up for his appearance in the Avengers. Plus, they can always go back and tell those stories in other films assuming Chris Evans was willing to return.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 1:19 AM, delfra wrote:

    I agree with what a lot of you are saying, frankly this writer Daniel Kline is goofy and sounds a little flaky to me lol. Dude 'The Winter Soldier' will definitely make more than 525 million worldwide, no it won't make 1 billion but it will still make a lot of money at the box office. In case you've been sleeping on an asteroid or something, the buzz and anticipation for 'The Winter Soldier' has been tremendous with many people who have already seen it calling it great. I think it's poised to hit 600 million worldwide and possibly 700 million, that sounds like blockbuster to me, I don't know what you call a blockbuster buddy. Stop trying to be a troll dude and do better research before you make such silly comments. Sounds like your friend is the only one between you two with some common sense.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 8:26 AM, ScottW wrote:

    While I don't think the movie will lose money, the author does have some valid concerns. In Iron Man and Thor, there are two must-see characters, Downey as Iron Man and Hiddleston as Loki, who brings fun and charisma to the movie. Evans, though a likable and believable Cap, doesn't have that same must-see charisma on screen. Furthermore, an early April release does not usually transform into blockbuster material. I'm sure it will be fun to watch, I plan on seeing it upon it's release. But, aside from a couple of mistake made in the article, the author is not way out in left field in his opinion.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 11:06 AM, Reek wrote:

    Cap 2 won't be a hit because it won't make a billion dollars?! Only a half dozen movies ever have made that much. If a tentpole movie's box office doubles it's production costs (which Cap 2 will certainly do) then it's a hit. This movie will make over $600 million world wide on a budget of less than $200 million. Just because it's not going to be the next Star Wars doesn't mean that it won't be popular and it will certainly help the value of Disney and Marvel studios. Now we just have to wait a day or two for Motley Fool to post an article saying The Winter Soldier is poised to be Marvel's "Next Big Hit!" or similar completely contradictory position.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 11:13 AM, SeamusMcTodd wrote:

    "Audiences don't know the villain?" I guess you're assuming nobody saw the first movie, despite the $370m it made worldwide, since he was in like half of it.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 2:26 PM, TMFDankline wrote:

    For the record...I'm not saying the movie will fail. I'm doing a back and forth piece with a colleague as to how big the movie will be. $525 million is good, but it's not great for a film likely to have $250-$300 million in production and marketing costs.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 2:30 PM, CriticKitten wrote:

    This article is so full of holes that it could perform Sunday Mass. (get it, because it's hole-y....*rimshot*)

    1) There is no definite monetary total for "blockbuster", but if there was, it wouldn't be set at a billion dollars, since very few films ever attain that status. A more reasonable total is a movie which exceeds $250 million and (at minimum) doubles its production costs in overall revenue. By that measure, the first Captain America movie (at $370 mil and $140 mil respectively) absolutely qualifies, and this one is bound to fare at least as well if not far better.

    2) The claim that 5.46 million viewers is "not a difference maker" is absurd. If each of those 5.46 million people translated to one ticket on opening night at $10 a ticket = $54.6 million dollars on the opening weekend, which is generally a pretty strong showing and will beat out most competing films.

    3) People's complaints about SHIELD do not include the notion that "no one cares about SHIELD". It's mainly a lack of superheroes being present that has damaged the series's opening.

    4) "$525 million is good but it's not a billion dollars so the movie isn't a blockbuster" is perhaps one of the most ridiculous sentiments ever committed to an article.

    5) Most audiences didn't know the villains from Thor when it premiered (exactly how many non-comic readers are aware of the frost giants?). Nor the villains in The Avengers for that matter. "Unknown villain" is not a hindrance. And by the way....

    7) ....The Winter Soldier is not an unknown villain anyways, he's one of the best known characters in the Cap America storyline. A little research would have saved you the embarrassment of people pointing this out to you.

    8) As stated earlier, $500-$600 million would absolutely be a huge success for a film that cost $170 million to make. That's a tripling of their investment. Marvel doesn't HAVE to make a billion on every movie for it to be successful.

    9) The reason Cap America did poorly overseas is because, given the film's title, overseas audiences expected a jingoistic film that heaped praise on America as the "bestest country evar". Now that the first film has clearly proven that not to be the case, I expect the overseas sales for this film to fare much better.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2014, at 4:50 PM, panama12 wrote:

    Umm ... Damn dude, what a great gig. Write any BS and get paid. SaWEET!!

    ‘Captain America: The Winter Soldier’ Tracking for Massive $85 Million-Plus Opening" - Variety

  • Report this Comment On April 06, 2014, at 1:03 PM, lycanthrope84 wrote:

    Let me get that egg off your face for yah.

  • Report this Comment On April 06, 2014, at 9:47 PM, buddydave wrote:

    "To date, “Winter Soldier” has raked in an overwhelming $300 million-plus global tally" -- Variety. Blowing past $600 million is almost a certainty. Daniel Kline should add this column to the next edition of his own "Worst Ideas Ever" book.

  • Report this Comment On April 12, 2014, at 3:46 PM, eroc wrote:

    What was your reasons on why it wouldn't work again, please tell me more. Let me know how you feel about other movies also.

  • Report this Comment On April 27, 2014, at 8:14 PM, Snowbie wrote:

    As of this weekend Captain America 2 has officially overtaken Thor 2 at both the domestic and worldwide box-office.

    I'm guessing you're probably regretting this article.

  • Report this Comment On May 10, 2014, at 5:09 PM, rackster wrote:

    This article is funny.

    Did the author think Enron was a good investment too?

    The numbers, so far:

    Domestic: $240,867,000

    Foreign: $442,700,000

    Worldwide: $683,567,000

  • Report this Comment On May 12, 2014, at 6:49 PM, Kenster59 wrote:

    Author's projections are hugely incorrect.

    Domestic: $245,128,338 35.2%

    + Foreign: $450,600,000 64.8%

    = Worldwide: $695,728,338

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Daniel B. Kline

Daniel B. Kline is an accomplished writer and editor who has worked for the Microsoft's Finance app and The Boston Globe, where he wrote for the paper and ran the business desk. His latest book "Worst Ideas Ever" (Skyhorse) can be purchased at bookstores everywhere.

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