Does Apple Have Only 2 Months to Live?

One impatient analyst doesn't understand Apple.

Mar 22, 2014 at 3:00PM

If there's one thing Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shouldn't do, it's rush a product to market. But that's exactly what Global Equities Research managing director Trip Chowdhry suggests Apple should do.

"They only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear," Chowdry said, according to CNBC. "It will take years for Apple's $130 billion in cash to vanish, but it will become an irrelevant company ... it will become a zombie, if they don't come up with an iWatch."

Apple Store Tmf

Though it may be on the extreme side, Chowdry's notion that the wearables market is a crucial space for Apple isn't new. A number of analysts have made the case for Apple to enter the wearables space. Even Apple CEO Tim Cook has called the category "another very key branch of the tree."

But there is one major problem with Chowdry's impatient timeline.

A flop is a bigger risk for Apple than tardiness
As long as either Steve Jobs or Tim Cook have been running Apple, the company has always had a very limited product portfolio. With a concentrated product lineup, product flops could be detrimental for the company.

Consider the iPhone, for instance. Apple's iPhone business makes up more than half of its revenue and an even larger share of its operating profits. Even Apple's Mac business accounts for more than 10% of Apple's revenue. With only a few products, a flop can really damage Apple's earnings potential.

Beyond the immediate negative effects a flop could have on Apple's earnings potential, Apple's reputation is on the line every time it enters a new category -- especially in the post-Steve Jobs era. If the company is working on an iWatch, investors should hope the device isn't a typical smartwatch. Instead, it should revolutionize the entire category. Apple has a history of innovation and revolutionary new products to live up to.

Investors should be patient
Apple CEO Tim Cook has said already promised that the company will be launching new categories this year. Whether it happens in 60 days or at the end of the year will make little difference for the long-term story for Apple stock. Perhaps Chowdhry is simply getting desperate for something to happen in order for his bullish $800 price target to ring true.

For investors with a Foolishly long-term approach to investing, the biggest catalyst for Apple stock will not be whether or not the iWatch is launched within Chowdhry's timeframe. Instead, Foolish investors should be concerned whether Apple's new devices in new categories are innovative and revolutionary. If it takes extra time for Apple to get its next category right, it will be worth the wait.

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Daniel Sparks owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning

Don't be one of them.

Jun 12, 2015 at 5:01PM

Admitting fear is difficult.

So you can imagine how shocked I was to find out Warren Buffett recently told a select number of investors about the cutting-edge technology that's keeping him awake at night.

This past May, The Motley Fool sent 8 of its best stock analysts to Omaha, Nebraska to attend the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger fielded questions for nearly 6 hours.
The catch was: Attendees weren't allowed to record any of it. No audio. No video. 

Our team of analysts wrote down every single word Buffett and Munger uttered. Over 16,000 words. But only two words stood out to me as I read the detailed transcript of the event: "Real threat."

That's how Buffett responded when asked about this emerging market that is already expected to be worth more than $2 trillion in the U.S. alone. Google has already put some of its best engineers behind the technology powering this trend. 

The amazing thing is, while Buffett may be nervous, the rest of us can invest in this new industry BEFORE the old money realizes what hit them.

KPMG advises we're "on the cusp of revolutionary change" coming much "sooner than you think."

Even one legendary MIT professor had to recant his position that the technology was "beyond the capability of computer science." (He recently confessed to The Wall Street Journal that he's now a believer and amazed "how quickly this technology caught on.")

Yet according to one J.D. Power and Associates survey, only 1 in 5 Americans are even interested in this technology, much less ready to invest in it. Needless to say, you haven't missed your window of opportunity. 

Think about how many amazing technologies you've watched soar to new heights while you kick yourself thinking, "I knew about that technology before everyone was talking about it, but I just sat on my hands." 

Don't let that happen again. This time, it should be your family telling you, "I can't believe you knew about and invested in that technology so early on."

That's why I hope you take just a few minutes to access the exclusive research our team of analysts has put together on this industry and the one stock positioned to capitalize on this major shift.

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David Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and American Express. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Google, and Coca-Cola.We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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