MannKind's Dominating Win Annihilates the Shorts

The biggest winner in health care, and possibly on the entire market, was MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD  ) today, up an astonishing 73% after the advisory committee reviewing its inhalable insulin Afrezza to make its recommendation to the FDA for or against, shocked the world by voting overwhelmingly in favor of the drug. The final votes were 13-1 in support of its type 1 diabetes indication, and 14-0 for type 2 diabetes.

In this video, Motley Fool health-care analyst David Williamson breaks down just how much of a massive win this is for the company. He discusses the long road MannKind has traveled toward commercialization, and the further questions and concerns he has, now that FDA approval looks incredibly likely.

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Read/Post Comments (9) | Recommend This Article (8)

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  • Report this Comment On April 02, 2014, at 8:49 PM, mbracket123 wrote:

    It did not annihilate the Shorts you naive journalist. They ran a coordinate campaign the last few days before the Adcom, smearing the companying by paid shills to induce fear and drive the price down before the meeting. They then methodically bought back their short positions during the days leading up to the vote. Get a clue.

  • Report this Comment On April 02, 2014, at 10:07 PM, robsacher wrote:

    Wow. I needed to see and hear this feel good piece. I was actually somewhat disappointed in today's 75% rise as the stock was down over 30% last week. I was expecting a much bigger bump today.

    Still, I guess many folks will wait until the FDA decision. I just don't know why those folks invest in companies like Mannkind. Anyway, let's hope for no surprises. This should be a slam dunk from here to the end of April…

    All the longs need to watch this video. Thank you David Williamson.

    :)

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 12:28 AM, WCoastGuynCA wrote:

    I don't think Mannkind shareholders should be celebrating until a final decision is issued. The F.D.A. could require REMS, periodic lung function testing, and either a cancer warning on the label or additional cancer studies.

    Arena, Vvus, and Amarin all lost a major portion of their market caps after their blockbuster drugs were approved and Mannkind will have substantially more competition than any of the three.

    Any potential partner may want to let Mannkind go it alone for a year or two to see if there is a market for Afrezza. If that happens Mannkind will need to raise another $300M to fund the commercial launch.

    Mannkind's current market cap on a fully diluted basis is over $3 billion.

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 12:35 AM, stemcells2011 wrote:

    mbracket123: That is an accurate assumption and seems to have some clear evidence based on the number of shares short as of 3/14 (63.5 mil) and the volume of shares traded just in the 4 days prior to adcom (~77 mil). It is likely that many of those shares were covering shorts. It is equally likely although probably impossible to prove that some of those trades were planned in accordance with all of the negative articles that appeared around the same time frame. My guess would be ~35% or 22m optimistically (could be higher) were shorts covering that still leaves around 40m or so shares short. There could also have been new shorts opened around $8 again so the total shares short may not seem to change by much when data is updated. Whatever the exact numbers, I do believe that a very many number of shorts were indeed "vaporized" or at least nearly so. The question is if they covered or not. The "smart" shorts likely will use the same old tactics going into PDUFA. They may be in for a surprise as their schemes have less effect with today's volume coupled with market's assumption that this drug will likely be approved. In conclusion I find it unlikely that many more than 10m shorts covered were working directly with the smear campaign, yet so many more shares that did cover expected and profited from that campaign. Then there's the ~40m left that are stuck dumbfounded by the FDA panel :)

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 5:02 AM, marp11 wrote:

    impressive and a great article...if you really want to write about a short diaster looming...well all the eyes are on the classic squeeze coming at

    ARNA ARNA ARNA

    this one will wipe out a few funds.....

    and the catalyst are way to numerous to list here

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 5:02 AM, Angelstar wrote:

    These all so called analyst are extremely stupide, they think that investors will act as per there comments. In reality they all comments in the articles for their personal gain only(working for hedge funds).

    In fact Afrezza is a revolutionary unique inhale insulin system which is now overwhelmingly approved by FDA(it just matter of time only). Afrezza will change the way of treatment of diabetic patients (Type 1 & Type 2 both) and will make diabetic patient's lives safe and easy.

    After approval of FDA, Mannkind corporation will be the perfect prime takeover target for pharma giants.

    This is just beginning of share price of Mannkind to rise to around $40 in near future.

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 10:20 AM, larryw101 wrote:

    @angelstar:

    You need to go back to grammar school . Your writing and spelling skills are atrocious.

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 2:11 PM, robsacher wrote:

    For what its worth:

    This reminds me of the Battle Of Richmond at the end of the Civil War. Lee, had dug in and had built trenches running from east to west south of the city supported by a railroad junction in a town called Petersburg. He had a reasonably decent fortification.

    However, Grant new that time was on his side. Grant's army could easily be reinforced while Lee was trapped behind his barricades with almost no chance of reinforcement. All Grant had to do was continue to extend the Union line to the west day after day, week after week.

    Eventually, Lee's defense line was so long that he could only put one man every twenty paces. He had fortifications but he was stretched way beyond his ability to respond to an attack.

    Then the fateful night came when Grant, sensing that now was the right time to attack, launched a full scale assault along Lee's entire east/west line. Lee's defense crumpled like a house of cards and the battle was over in less than two hours.

    The shorts are covering their thinly stretched line. But, the longs know that time is on their side. The shorts pray for a miracle as Lee's men must have also done behind their fortifications. Maybe, the FDA will save them after all.

    Maybe, the longs will give up the battle in this eleventh hour, maybe the FDA will require a market suppressing label, maybe, maybe, maybe…

    The shorts still launch their attacks but they grow more feeble with every passing hour just as Lee's attacks grew more feeble when he tried probing Grant's line just days before Grant launched his final blow.

    Former generals are looking for a way of escape, General Cramer now says he is "neutral" when formerly he was a revered leader of the shorts, Col, Feuerstein now concedes that defeat is likely, but the shorts still battle on seemingly safe in their belief that their short walls are secure.

    General Mann surveys the situation.He has waited a very long time for the sunrise on this momentous day. His loyal officers stand by in support. His long army is about to annihilate what is left of the final short force in front of them.

    Then, in one monumental move, the whole damn defense collapsed as will happen when the FDA approves Mannkind's Afreza. In one immortal moment, history was written and will be written again.

    Perhaps we should call this short last stand the Battle Of April 15th!

  • Report this Comment On April 03, 2014, at 9:00 PM, richr wrote:

    Dream Boat inhailer or a Needle which would you choose ?

    Insulin and Blood Sugar spikes (could be Fatal) or Smooth and Stable levels?

    Type 2 drugs that are dangerous to liver heart and pancreas or insulin that is natural,and is what your Body Produces?

    Mr. Mann, well all I'll say is, this is not his first rodeo.

    Good luck Shorty

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