Box Office Preview: 'Rio 2' Set to Battle 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' for No. 1

Can "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" fend off an onslaught of animated birds? Here's what fans and investors need to know.

Apr 11, 2014 at 5:03PM

Relativity, Disney, Viacom, Lions Gate, DreamWorks, and News Corp battle for box office supremacy

Blue Sky Studios' hopes Rio 2 can beat Captain America: The Winter Soldier this weekend: Credit: News Corp, Disney

Disney (NYSE:DIS) Marvel's Captain America: The Winter Soldier may have gone unchallenged in its record-breaking $95 million U.S. debut, but this weekend the box office might sing to a different tune.

With the nearly 4,000-theater launch of its animated, music-filled adventure in Rio 2, News Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NWS) 20th Century Fox subsidiary Blue Sky Studios hopes it has another big hit on its hands. After all, Blue Sky Studios' first effort with Rio opened to a solid $39 million this time three years ago, and ultimately grossed $484.6 million in worldwide ticket sales -- more than enough to recoup News Corp.'s $90 million outlay and spur the creation of this weekend's sequel. 

What's more, DreamWorks Animation's (NASDAQ:DWA) Mr. Peabody & Sherman stands as the most recent competing animated film still in theaters. But DreamWork's latest is already entering its sixth weekend and collected just $5.1 million for seventh place last weekend. As a result, there should be plenty of pent-up demand from movie-goers looking for family-friendly entertainment. 

As of right now, preliminary ticket sales have Rio 2 tracking somewhere in the $40 million to $42 million range over the next three days.  This is great for News Corp., which only slightly upped the ante this time spending "just" $103 million on Rio 2. That might sound like a lot, but Disney and DreamWorks spent $170 million and $145 million, respectively, to bring Frozen and Mr. Peabody & Sherman to life. At the same time, all of Rio 2's core voice talent was happy to return, including Anne Hathaway, Jesse Eisenberg, Leslie Mann, Jamie Foxx, Tracy Morgan, George Lopez, and Jermaine Clement. 

So where does that leave Disney and its Captain America sequel? If Winter Soldier experiences a similar ~58% second-week plunge as both Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 3 did last year, that means it should end up tacking on another $40 million this weekend. Of course, it's worth noting Winter Soldier has already grossed a mind-boggling $320.1 million worldwide, but we might have ourselves a darned close race for the top spot domestically just the same.

Don't forget the wild cards
This weekend also features the sub-3,000 theater rollouts of Relativity Media's super-creepy horror flick, Oculus, and Lions Gate's (NYSE:LGF) Kevin Costner-infused sports drama Draft Day. While neither should pose a significant threat to Winter Soldier or Rio 2, I fully expect both to be successful in their own rights.

Relativity, Disney, Viacom, Lions Gate, DreamWorks, and News Corp battle for box office supremacy

Oculus debuts this weekend: Credit: Relativity Media

Relativity only spent $5 million on Oculus, putting it in the same league as other low-risk, high-reward horror franchises like Viacom (NASDAQ:VIA) Paramount's last four $5 million Paranormal Activity films. In fact, despite receiving a disappointing "C-" CinemaScore from polled audiences, this year's Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones has already proven a huge success after opening to a modest $18.3 million in January, then racking up $86.4 million in global ticket sales for Viacom over the past seven weekends. If Oculus can perform even half as well, Relativity Media has reason to rejoice.

Draft Day is slightly different in that Lions Gate hasn't provided an official production budget, but I find it hard to imagine director Ivan Reitman required significantly more than the $25 million with which he helmed 2011's No Strings Attached. If that's the case, I suspect Lions Gate will also be happy with most early estimates calling for Draft Day's estimated first weekend gross in the low-to-mid teens.

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Steve Symington has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends DreamWorks Animation and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool owns shares of Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning

Don't be one of them.

Jun 12, 2015 at 5:01PM

Admitting fear is difficult.

So you can imagine how shocked I was to find out Warren Buffett recently told a select number of investors about the cutting-edge technology that's keeping him awake at night.

This past May, The Motley Fool sent 8 of its best stock analysts to Omaha, Nebraska to attend the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger fielded questions for nearly 6 hours.
The catch was: Attendees weren't allowed to record any of it. No audio. No video. 

Our team of analysts wrote down every single word Buffett and Munger uttered. Over 16,000 words. But only two words stood out to me as I read the detailed transcript of the event: "Real threat."

That's how Buffett responded when asked about this emerging market that is already expected to be worth more than $2 trillion in the U.S. alone. Google has already put some of its best engineers behind the technology powering this trend. 

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KPMG advises we're "on the cusp of revolutionary change" coming much "sooner than you think."

Even one legendary MIT professor had to recant his position that the technology was "beyond the capability of computer science." (He recently confessed to The Wall Street Journal that he's now a believer and amazed "how quickly this technology caught on.")

Yet according to one J.D. Power and Associates survey, only 1 in 5 Americans are even interested in this technology, much less ready to invest in it. Needless to say, you haven't missed your window of opportunity. 

Think about how many amazing technologies you've watched soar to new heights while you kick yourself thinking, "I knew about that technology before everyone was talking about it, but I just sat on my hands." 

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That's why I hope you take just a few minutes to access the exclusive research our team of analysts has put together on this industry and the one stock positioned to capitalize on this major shift.

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David Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and American Express. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Google, and Coca-Cola.We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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