MannKind's Overly-Optimisitic Investors

Last week, MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD  ) announced that the Food and Drug Administration was delaying a decision about whether to approve its inhaled insulin Afezza by three months.

Investors seemed surprised, with shares falling 8% on Monday, although it made all that and more back in the following two days.

Despite issues with limited time between the advisory committee meeting and the FDA decision date as well as a controversy over conversion between inhaled Afrezza and its injected counterparts from Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO  ) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) , a majority of investors in a Motley Fool poll thought the FDA would approve Afrezza this week.

In the video below, Fool contributor Brian Orelli and health-care bureau chief Max Macaluso discuss the reason straw polls tend to be more positive than they probably should be, and they give their thoughts on the likelihood of approval by July 15.

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Read/Post Comments (11) | Recommend This Article (4)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 14, 2014, at 6:58 PM, WCoastGuynCA wrote:

    With the F.D.A. decision being three months away and considering the expected restrictions that will be placed on Afrezza by the F.D.A. if it is approved it's likely that Mannkind's share price will retrace back below $5.00.

    No compelling reason to buy it here.

    A third rejection would probably bankrupt the company.

  • Report this Comment On April 14, 2014, at 11:54 PM, mpg54 wrote:

    Why would there be restrictions? There have been much, much more hazardous drugs than Afrezza approved by the FDA. I wouldn't even put Afrezza in that category. If it's approved the price will Sky Rocket. Did you here the testimonials by the Diabetics in the trials? This is a revolutionary drug for this illness, if you don't see that your blind.

  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2014, at 12:54 AM, theeseer wrote:

    Gee I guess you missed the testimony at the ADCOM. The test users loved this new treatment and the Doctors obviously want it in their arsenal. This will be a sales smash hit and sure to be approved for type 2 and type 1 don't forget was recommended 13-1. Every label has a litany of issues the bottom line is that the convenience and superior self image of not injecting plus the fast action of this unique insulin that more closely mimics natural insulin make this a blockbuster period. Its not investor hype its the facts.

  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2014, at 10:08 AM, yazzbro wrote:

    Oh the bear argument here is just getting pathetic now. Another hit piece. Anything to get people to come to the FOOL sight. This is the same FOOL who was predicting a bad Adcom. So let's consider the source here for a second. My argument is you think there are going to be a ton or restrictions on Afrezza YET Exubera which was nowhere near as good or as safe as Afrezza had hardly any? Oh Ok. If you look back and actually do some DD on Exubera you will see that the FDA also delayed their decision for three months to look at the chemistry. The only restrictions they came up with where age limits and if you were a smoker to no take it. This is how the FDA works. Most analysts were predicting a delay here so it's not a big deal. So enough of the sky is falling garbage and enough of these really pathetic hit pieces. Why anyone listens to you at this point is beyond me especially when you predicted a negative Adcom. All you have really proven lately is that you don't know any more about this than the next guy.

  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2014, at 10:30 AM, larryw101 wrote:

    Brian Orelli sure has aged from seeing his picture on top to looking at the video. Looks like a 20 year age difference. At least he got a haircut. That bowl cut in his picture is pathetic.

    This is just another bait article by Motley to attract readers to click on the article so Motley can sell more advertising.

    The content is garbage journalism which is extremely slanted against MNKD.

  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2014, at 10:32 AM, larryw101 wrote:

    @WestcoastguynCa:

    I dare you to short the stock.

  • Report this Comment On April 15, 2014, at 8:51 PM, Topdoginvesting1 wrote:

    There is still allot of Shorts betting against MNKD, and allot of investors who buy in Huge Blocks protect themselves, after all it is the Stock market. The real shorts with no holdings have weeks and probably no longer to try and cover. To risky to short, Pfizer could be in talks with MNKD right now and you will not know. Things will fall into place within a few months, Odds are in MNKD'S favor, but you never know. Long some MNKD, CHTP, PCYC, THLD, ISR,...

  • Report this Comment On April 16, 2014, at 8:43 AM, stempo67 wrote:

    Don't listen to anything that WestcoastguynCa has to say about Mannkind nor any other biotech. He is bashing for the shorts. This guy comments on every freaking article related to Mannkind with negative non factual comments. He was at one time pushing the hell out of AMBS. looser!

  • Report this Comment On April 16, 2014, at 3:49 PM, ddbikessamsara wrote:

    I am "optimisitic" that one day Motley Fool will post an article that actually has some depth to it and shows some meaningful insight. So far and after many years my optimism has proven fruitless. The "parasitic" Fool continues to spew out multitudes of meaningless fluff, getting mouse clicks but going nowhere. The Fool runs neck and neck with Seeking Alpha as pursuing agendas at the expense of truth.

  • Report this Comment On April 21, 2014, at 10:23 AM, NewTampaResident wrote:

    Agree with Brian. I bought my block of MNKD in 09. Traded in and out several times on news highs and short/bear raids. At Adcom day in after hours $8.48 was about all it would do. I sold out. Last August it was $8.70 for a high after trials were done. I would say the FDA approval is "priced in" to the Adcom price per share to a certain amount. I wouldn't look for more than $9 even if it gets FDA approval on July 15th. In the mean time if you just sitting on MNKD stock that will not go anywhere till July 15th your missing out on market gains in other stocks and investment vehicles. Don't get all caught up in the forest for the trees in message board arguments. Just set the rate of return you want and stick to it. Flipping MNKD and making $2-$3 a share is fine. Forget trying to prove your the wittiest on the message board and prove your point. Who cares just make profit. If you want to stubbornly hold till hell freezes over that's your decision and problem.

  • Report this Comment On April 22, 2014, at 11:55 AM, yazzbro wrote:

    Who says nothing is going to happen "til" July 15? The FDA said "BY" July 15. They can have a decicion anytime before that. Also, this is not about the FDA approval any more,(we all know it most likely to be approved) you guys(Brian Orelli and NewTampa) are missing the point. It's about the partnership or buyout that happens after the FDA approval. That is clearly NOT priced in at this point. FDA can come with an approval, a partnership or buyout could be announced at any time etc..etc.. NewTampa please, everyone has their own strategy so don't come on here and tell everyone how to trade MNKD. If you want to be out of this stock that is your deal if you don't have the manhood to hold a bit longer "that's your decision and problem" OK. I mean you contradict yourself already by saying that the FDA approval is priced already but, then you go on to say don't look for more than $9. Well which is it? Is it priced in or is it going to $9? Like I said before, this is no longer about the FDA approval. It all about what happens after the approval ,that's what long's are looking at now. You guys are a day late and a dollar short with your advice. Long MNKD.

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