International Business Machines Corp. and UnitedHealth Group Inc. Are Dragging the Dow Down

Big Tech and health insurers are having a bit of a bloodbath today.

Apr 17, 2014 at 12:20PM

Today continues the trend of weakly indecisive markets that has plagued American investors for much of April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), which has spent the month bobbing and weaving around a narrow band between 16,500 points and 16,200 points (that's less than a 2% difference), sat at roughly 16,430 points -- effectively breakeven with yesterday's close -- heading into lunchtime.


First-quarter earnings season is now well under way, and two of the Dow's components are dragging the whole index down after disappointing investors with year-over-year bottom-line declines. IBM's (NYSE:IBM) weakness seems symptomatic of the problems now plaguing Big Tech, while UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) is just the latest health insurer to blame stricter Obamacare mandates on weaker earnings. Similar issues can be seen in the broader S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) index today -- Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), WellPoint (NYSE: WLP), and Aetna (NYSE: AET) have been three of the S&P's 10 worst-performing stocks this morning,  alongside other large-cap tech companies.

IBM, which was down 3.3%, reported a 4% year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue and a truly unpleasant 21% drop in year-over-year generally accepted accounting principles net income -- operating earnings per share was down 15% year over year as well, so the decline couldn't be blamed solely on one-time costs. This report threatens to undo much of the positive earnings momentum IBM has generated since the recession, especially since nearly all of this momentum has been driven by cost-cutting and share buybacks (the chart below has not yet been updated with the latest quarterly data):

IBM Revenue (TTM) Chart

IBM Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

IBM, which recently sold its server division to Lenovo, was dragged down by a 23% year-over-year decline in sales in its hardware segment, but its Chinese sales also dropped by a whopping 20% compared to the year-ago quarter.

Both classes of Google's shares were down over 4% this morning after the search giant provided a different sort of disappointment -- its 19% year-over-year top-line gain, to $15.42 billion for the first quarter, was a hair beneath Wall Street's $15.52 billion consensus.

Big G's EPS of $5.04 was barely an improvement over the $4.97 reported in the year-ago quarter, as higher ad volumes were offset by lower costs per ad and higher operating expenses, which The New York Times pinned on the costs of an ongoing acquisition binge. Google's free cash flow had been falling away from its bottom line in recent quarters as the company gobbled up promising start-ups, but the company's latest report could indicate that EPS will eventually be falling below revenue growth as well:

GOOGL Revenue (TTM) Chart

GOOGL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

Google has been trading places with WellPoint throughout the morning for the title of "S&P's Biggest Loser," as investors are preparing for a wave of weakness following UnitedHealth's first-quarter report. UnitedHealth, the nation's largest health insurer, lost 4% this morning on weaker than expected top-line results, despite a narrow EPS beat; it pointed out that Obamacare compliance cost it an additional $0.35 per share. UnitedHealth had previously warned that Obamacare would reduce operating earnings by $1.1 billion this year, and news that paying for policyholders' hepatitis C drugs -- primarily Gilead Sciences' (NASDAQ: GILD) Sovaldi -- amounted to $100 million in extra costs for the first quarter. The company still expects earnings of $5.40 to $5.60 per share this year, which only hits Wall Street's $5.60 consensus on the upper bound. The widespread reaction seen on health insurer stocks today could simply be an overdue reaction to share prices that had ran rather far ahead of earnings per share. All three of the health insurers bearing the brunt of UnitedHealth's disappointment today have produced at least twice the growth in share value as they have on their bottom lines:

UNH Total Return Price Chart

UNH Total Return Price data by YCharts.

Despite this, all three remain quite cheaply valued. UnitedHealth's P/E is the highest of the trio, but still only touches 13.6. WellPoint's is only 11.2, barely in double-digit territory at all.

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Alex Planes holds no financial position in any company mentioned here. Add him on Google+ or follow him on Twitter @TMFBiggles for more insight into markets, history, and technology.

The Motley Fool recommends Gilead Sciences, Google-Class C Shares, Google (A shares), UnitedHealth Group, and WellPoint. The Motley Fool owns shares of Google-Class C Shares, Google (A shares), International Business Machines, and WellPoint. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A Financial Plan on an Index Card

Keeping it simple.

Aug 7, 2015 at 11:26AM

Two years ago, University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack wrote his entire financial plan on an index card.

It blew up. People loved the idea. Financial advice is often intentionally complicated. Obscurity lets advisors charge higher fees. But the most important parts are painfully simple. Here's how Pollack put it:

The card came out of chat I had regarding what I view as the financial industry's basic dilemma: The best investment advice fits on an index card. A commenter asked for the actual index card. Although I was originally speaking in metaphor, I grabbed a pen and one of my daughter's note cards, scribbled this out in maybe three minutes, snapped a picture with my iPhone, and the rest was history.

More advisors and investors caught onto the idea and started writing their own financial plans on a single index card.

I love the exercise, because it makes you think about what's important and forces you to be succinct.

So, here's my index-card financial plan:


Everything else is details. 

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