MicroStrategy Incorporated Shares Popped Today: Here's What Investors Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR  ) surged 10% today after Deutsche Bank upgraded the enterprise software technologist from hold to buy.

So what: Along with the upgrade, analyst Karl Keirstead boosted his price target to $150 (from $130), representing about 40% worth of upside to yesterday's close. So while momentum traders might be turned off by MicroStrategy's price pullback in recent months, Keirstead's call could reflect a growing sense on Wall Street that its prospects are becoming too cheap to pass up.

Now what: According to Deutsche, MicroStrategy's risk/reward trade-off is particularly attractive at this point. "MSTR shares trade at an EV/2014 revenue multiple of just 1.4x (and at a multiple of 2.7x ongoing maintenance revenues) despite having a best-in-class business intelligence (BI) suite (customer feedback is almost uniformly positive) and despite sporting a 22% license growth rate in 4Q13," said Keirstead. "While several factors weigh on the multiple (weak license growth over the last two years, the lack of a competitive product against Tableau in the "BI 2.0" space, margin deterioration), MSTR's valuation multiple is heavily discounted (we estimate by at least 25%) to reflect the lack of visibility." When you couple MicroStrategy's cheapish valuation with its rock-solid balance sheet, the downside might still be limited enough to bet on Deutsche's bullishness.

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Brian Pacampara

I take a look at big 10% moves, as well as stock-shaking analyst calls, on a daily basis for The Fool. While I don't believe in active trading, closely monitoring Mr. Market's mood swings can help identify long-term opportunities.

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Related Tickers

9/2/2015 4:00 PM
MSTR $197.02 Up +0.98 +0.50%
MicroStrategy CAPS Rating: ***