Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR) surged 10% today after Deutsche Bank upgraded the enterprise software technologist from hold to buy.
So what: Along with the upgrade, analyst Karl Keirstead boosted his price target to $150 (from $130), representing about 40% worth of upside to yesterday's close. So while momentum traders might be turned off by MicroStrategy's price pullback in recent months, Keirstead's call could reflect a growing sense on Wall Street that its prospects are becoming too cheap to pass up.
Now what: According to Deutsche, MicroStrategy's risk/reward trade-off is particularly attractive at this point. "MSTR shares trade at an EV/2014 revenue multiple of just 1.4x (and at a multiple of 2.7x ongoing maintenance revenues) despite having a best-in-class business intelligence (BI) suite (customer feedback is almost uniformly positive) and despite sporting a 22% license growth rate in 4Q13," said Keirstead. "While several factors weigh on the multiple (weak license growth over the last two years, the lack of a competitive product against Tableau in the "BI 2.0" space, margin deterioration), MSTR's valuation multiple is heavily discounted (we estimate by at least 25%) to reflect the lack of visibility." When you couple MicroStrategy's cheapish valuation with its rock-solid balance sheet, the downside might still be limited enough to bet on Deutsche's bullishness.
Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned, and neither does The Motley Fool. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.