Will Keurig Green Mountain Inc's Q2 Report Perk Up Investors?

Keurig Green Mountain's second-quarter report could include more about its Coca-Cola partnership -- and send SodaStream shares sliding.

May 7, 2014 at 3:30PM
Keurig Brewer

Source: Keurig Green Mountain.

Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) will report second-quarter results on May 7 after the market close. The company had a busy first quarter that included changing its name, making a lucrative partnership with Coca-Cola that threatens SodaStream, and fielding a lawsuit concerning future brewing models. So what should investors look for in its second-quarter report? 

 Analysts estimate revenue of $1 billion with EPS of $0.95. Keurig has beat EPS estimates for the past five quarters and met or beat on revenue in all but one of those quarters. But you should look beyond those metrics for two easy ways to check out Keurig's standing. 

Pod sales 
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters might have changed its name because the Keurig is more recognizable, but it's the pods for the brewers that account for most of the company's revenue. Portion packs (the segment name for the pods) accounted for nearly 80% of Keurig's total revenue in 2013 and 67% of first-quarter revenue.

It's important to keep an eye on this segment's growth or lack thereof, because Keurig lost patent protection on the pods back in September 2012. The loss allowed other brands (such as supermarket generic brands) to come out with cheaper versions of the pods. And that turnaround led to the Keurig's controversial plans to create future brewers with technology that would limit pod usage to products from those companies with Green Mountain partnerships.

Project announcements or updates 
Keurig Green Mountain consistently announces new pod partnerships, such as those with Starbucks, Peet's Coffee & Tea, and hot chocolate brand Laura Secord. But the year's biggest deal thus far was with Coca-Cola for the forthcoming Keurig Cold brewing device.

Sodastream Cola

Source: SodaStream.

As the name suggests, the Keurig Cold will let owners "brew" carbonated cold drinks. The machine will stand in direct competition to SodaStream's system, which offers a variety of flavored syrups but only has generic soda offerings. The Coca-Cola deal gave the soda-maker a 10% stake in Keurig Green Mountain and provided early legitimacy for the Keurig Cold. And since partnerships are Keurig Green Mountain's main priority, investors can expect to see even more name brands signed up in the future.

Foolish final thoughts 
Keurig Green Mountain investors can perform a fairly simple health check with its second-quarter report. Look to see that the pods segment isn't tanking. (A small drop is manageable with the forthcoming patent-protected machines.) And check the earnings report or conference call for more details about the Keurig Cold. 

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Brandy Betz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Coca-Cola, Keurig Green Mountain, SodaStream, and Starbucks. The Motley Fool owns shares of SodaStream and Starbucks and has the following options: long January 2016 $37 calls on Coca-Cola and short January 2016 $37 puts on Coca-Cola. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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