Why Nimble Storage Inc. Shares Soared Today

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Nimble Storage Inc. (NYSE: NMBL  ) jumped nearly 12% Monday after two analysts upgraded the stock.

So what: Nimble won't announce quarterly results until May 29, but that didn't stop analysts Jason Ader of William Blair and Richard Kugele of Needham & Company from weighing in today. Specifically, Ader increased his rating on Nimble shares from "market perform" to "outperform" after noting the recent pullback. He also pointed out Nimble's promising new products -- which include expected Fibre Channel support this year and the "general availability of its new scale-out software" -- should enable Nimble to expand its scope and take market share.

Kugele, for his part, upgraded Needham's rating on Nimble from "buy" to "strong buy," while curiously reducing his price target on shares to $35 from $62. Kugele also cited the recent pullback, suggested Nimble can grow its top line by 50% or more for the next several years, and finally insisted Needham's channel checks indicate Nimble is executing well.

Now what: Nimble shares are indeed trading more than 60% below their February highs. But I personally prefer to avoid trading around earnings -- especially considering Nimble is prone to volatility, anyway, having only held its IPO late last year. Instead, I'm opting for a wait-and-see approach before making any decisions on Nimble as a long-term investment. If Nimble Storage shows progress toward achieving sustained profitability later this month, patient investors should have plenty of time to build their positions.

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