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Why Super Micro Computer, Inc. Shares Popped Today

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc (NASDAQ: SMCI  ) jumped 10% Friday following an analyst upgrade.

So what: After meeting with Super Micro's CFO, Stifel analyst Aaron Rakers upgraded the stock from hold to buy, and increased his 2015 and 2016 estimates. Rakers cited opportunities for Super Micro to increase gross margin going forward, and says its differentiated product offerings in the x86 server market are helping it achieve faster-than-average sector growth. Rakers assigned a $23 per share price target to Super Micro shares, which represents a 16% premium to today's close.

Now what: I happen to wholeheartedly agree, and even expressed a similar sentiment after last month's brief post-earnings pop. Specifically, I suggested at the time that Super Micro is "enjoying impressive demand during its transition to new technology," and that shares "could still prove a bargain" considering earnings "estimates are likely to drift higher as analysts have time to fully digest today's news." In the end, that's exactly what we're seeing today, and I still think Super Micro is a solid buy for patient, long-term investors.

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