Why Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. Shares Got Shot Down

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of firearm products specialist Smith & Wesson Holding  (NASDAQ: SWHC  ) sank 10% today after its full-year guidance disappointed Wall Street.

So what: Smith & Wesson's fiscal 2014 fourth-quarter results topped expectations -- earnings per share of $0.45 on revenue of $170.4 million versus the consensus of $0.39 and $164 million -- but downbeat guidance for full-year fiscal 2015 is forcing analysts to quickly recalibrate their growth estimates. Of course, management said it still expects to grow 8% to 10% over the long term, suggesting that today's double-digit pullback could be an opportunity for patient investors.

Now what: Management now sees 2015 EPS of $1.30-$1.40 on revenue of $585 million-$600 million, well below the consensus of $1.50 and $620 million. "We believe that by executing on our strategy, we are well positioned to continue to take market share and deliver profitability, even as the consumer market for firearms returns to a more normal environment," President and CEO James Debney reassured investors in a press release. More important, with Smith & Wesson shares now off about 12% from their 52-week high and trading at a still-cheapish forward P/E of 10, the downside seems limited enough to bet on that bullishness. 

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