Why TherapeuticsMD Inc. Stock Grew Wings

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of TherapeuticsMD (NYSEMKT: TXMD  ) , a drug manufacturer focused on developing over-the-counter, prescription generic, and branded clinical-stage therapies for women, surged as much as 28% this morning after FBR Capital initiated coverage on the company.

So what: Here's where things got really interesting. FBR Capital initiated coverage on TherapeuticsMD with an outperform rating and a price target of $34 per share. As a reminder, TherapeuticsMD closed yesterday at just $4.13 per share. In other words, FBR is implying as much as 723% upside from yesterday's close. According to FBR's thesis, the company's hormone replacement pipeline, specifically investigational hot flash treatment TX-001, could revolutionize the way women receive hormone replacement therapy. As my Foolish colleague Leo Sun noted earlier today, TX-001HR has peak sales potential in the U.S. of more than $2 billion.

Now what: Who says you need a Red Bull to give you wings when you have FBR Capital in your corner? Under normal circumstances I strongly advise investors against paying too much credence to shareholder actions as they're often short-term drivers of a company's share price and have little impact on our long-term investing thesis. FBR's price target, however, appears to defy the laws of gravity considering that the meat and potatoes of TherapeuticsMD's portfolio is still clinical in nature. It's as if FBR has completely cast off any notion that there could be competing drugs, launch issues, or even FDA concerns. Ultimately, I'm not saying that TherapeuticsMD won't succeed, but a $34 price target seems absolutely ridiculous given the data we have right now. I'd suggest watching this company from the sidelines until today's emotional move calms down.

TherapeuticsMD shares soared today, but keeping pace with this stock that Warren Buffett recently bought may prove impossible! 
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000 per hour (That's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report details this company that already has over 50% market share. Just click HERE to discover more about this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable landslide of profits!


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  • Report this Comment On July 08, 2014, at 3:12 PM, graciefan1 wrote:

    Maybe they think the sock will pull another Dendreon who's stock went from $3 to $55 in three months...lol

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