Why TherapeuticsMD Inc. Stock Grew Wings

You don't need Red Bull to grow wings when you have FBR Capital in your corner!

Jul 8, 2014 at 2:00PM

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of TherapeuticsMD (NYSEMKT:TXMD), a drug manufacturer focused on developing over-the-counter, prescription generic, and branded clinical-stage therapies for women, surged as much as 28% this morning after FBR Capital initiated coverage on the company.

So what: Here's where things got really interesting. FBR Capital initiated coverage on TherapeuticsMD with an outperform rating and a price target of $34 per share. As a reminder, TherapeuticsMD closed yesterday at just $4.13 per share. In other words, FBR is implying as much as 723% upside from yesterday's close. According to FBR's thesis, the company's hormone replacement pipeline, specifically investigational hot flash treatment TX-001, could revolutionize the way women receive hormone replacement therapy. As my Foolish colleague Leo Sun noted earlier today, TX-001HR has peak sales potential in the U.S. of more than $2 billion.

Now what: Who says you need a Red Bull to give you wings when you have FBR Capital in your corner? Under normal circumstances I strongly advise investors against paying too much credence to shareholder actions as they're often short-term drivers of a company's share price and have little impact on our long-term investing thesis. FBR's price target, however, appears to defy the laws of gravity considering that the meat and potatoes of TherapeuticsMD's portfolio is still clinical in nature. It's as if FBR has completely cast off any notion that there could be competing drugs, launch issues, or even FDA concerns. Ultimately, I'm not saying that TherapeuticsMD won't succeed, but a $34 price target seems absolutely ridiculous given the data we have right now. I'd suggest watching this company from the sidelines until today's emotional move calms down.

TherapeuticsMD shares soared today, but keeping pace with this stock that Warren Buffett recently bought may prove impossible! 
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000 per hour (That's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report details this company that already has over 50% market share. Just click HERE to discover more about this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable landslide of profits!

Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong.

The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A Financial Plan on an Index Card

Keeping it simple.

Aug 7, 2015 at 11:26AM

Two years ago, University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack wrote his entire financial plan on an index card.

It blew up. People loved the idea. Financial advice is often intentionally complicated. Obscurity lets advisors charge higher fees. But the most important parts are painfully simple. Here's how Pollack put it:

The card came out of chat I had regarding what I view as the financial industry's basic dilemma: The best investment advice fits on an index card. A commenter asked for the actual index card. Although I was originally speaking in metaphor, I grabbed a pen and one of my daughter's note cards, scribbled this out in maybe three minutes, snapped a picture with my iPhone, and the rest was history.

More advisors and investors caught onto the idea and started writing their own financial plans on a single index card.

I love the exercise, because it makes you think about what's important and forces you to be succinct.

So, here's my index-card financial plan:


Everything else is details. 

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