Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of TherapeuticsMD (NYSEMKT:TXMD), a drug manufacturer focused on developing over-the-counter, prescription generic, and branded clinical-stage therapies for women, surged as much as 28% this morning after FBR Capital initiated coverage on the company.
So what: Here's where things got really interesting. FBR Capital initiated coverage on TherapeuticsMD with an outperform rating and a price target of $34 per share. As a reminder, TherapeuticsMD closed yesterday at just $4.13 per share. In other words, FBR is implying as much as 723% upside from yesterday's close. According to FBR's thesis, the company's hormone replacement pipeline, specifically investigational hot flash treatment TX-001, could revolutionize the way women receive hormone replacement therapy. As my Foolish colleague Leo Sun noted earlier today, TX-001HR has peak sales potential in the U.S. of more than $2 billion.
Now what: Who says you need a Red Bull to give you wings when you have FBR Capital in your corner? Under normal circumstances I strongly advise investors against paying too much credence to shareholder actions as they're often short-term drivers of a company's share price and have little impact on our long-term investing thesis. FBR's price target, however, appears to defy the laws of gravity considering that the meat and potatoes of TherapeuticsMD's portfolio is still clinical in nature. It's as if FBR has completely cast off any notion that there could be competing drugs, launch issues, or even FDA concerns. Ultimately, I'm not saying that TherapeuticsMD won't succeed, but a $34 price target seems absolutely ridiculous given the data we have right now. I'd suggest watching this company from the sidelines until today's emotional move calms down.
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Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong.
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