Why SanDisk Corporation Shares Sank

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK  ) plunged 12% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: SanDisk shares have soared over the past year on a string of blowout quarters, but today's only slightly better-than-expected Q2 -- earnings increased 4.1% on revenue growth of 11% -- coupled with downbeat guidance for the current quarter is forcing Mr. Market to quickly sober up. While operating margins expanded 700 basis points year over year to 32%, some analysts are concerned that management's cost focus is limiting its ability to keep up with demand.

Now what: Management now sees Q3 revenue of $1.68 billion to $1.73 billion, below the average analyst estimate of $1.74 billion. "We believe it will be difficult for the stock to outperform in the near term given that SanDisk is supply constrained in 2H14, and 1Q is seasonally slow," said Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney, who lowered his price target to $100 (from $107) following the report. He continued:

However, we do believe there were some positives including: (1) SanDisk noted industry pricing stabilized recently (which is consistent with our retail tracker); (2) it plans to launch X3 based SSDs in 3Q14, which will help margins (mostly in 2015); (3) Cash returns are a positive (SanDisk continues to target 100% of FCF).

More importantly, with SanDisk shares now off more than 10% from their 52-week highs and trading at a forward P/E in the mid-teens, Mr. Market might finally be offering a decent opportunity to buy into those positives.   

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