Why Select Comfort Corp. Shares Surged

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Select Comfort Corp. (NASDAQ: SCSS  ) popped 10% on Thursday after its quarterly results topped Wall Street expectations.

So what: Select Comfort shares have performed poorly over the past year on sluggish sales, but today's Q1 beat -- EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $235 million versus the consensus of $0.14 and $224 million -- suggests that management's new product initiatives are starting to gain traction. While earnings declined 11%, company-controlled same-store sales increased 7% over the year-ago period, giving analysts a much better feeling over Select Comfort's competitive position going forward.

Now what: Management reiterated its 2014 EPS outlook of $1.07 with capital expenditures ranging from $70 million to $80 million. "We remain dedicated to our customer as we continue to transition the business through our growth initiatives," said President and CEO Shelly Ibach. "We know that when we focus on our customer, we deliver value for them and for our shareholders." When you couple Select Comfort's forward P/E of 16 with the uncertainty that still surrounds its long-term turnaround prospects, I'd hold out for a wider margin of safety before betting too heavily on that bullishness. 

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