Why TubeMogul Inc. Stock Skyrocketed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of TubeMogul (NASDAQ: TUBE  ) , a cloud-based provider of video-based advertising optimization tools for enterprise customers, skyrocketed by as much as 53% on Wednesday after the company reported its second-quarter earnings results following the closing bell yesterday.

So what: For the quarter, TubeMogul reported a mammoth 127% increase in revenue to $28.7 million, a 135% spike in gross profit to $19.6 million, and the big surprise, $2.1 million in net income compared to a loss of $2.6 million in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis this works out to a profit of $0.01 per share. Wall Street projections had only called for TubeMogul to bring in $24.7 million in revenue and to produce a loss of $0.15 per share. In other words, TubeMogul crushed Wall Street's estimates.


Source: TubeMogul.

Looking ahead, the beatdown continued. TubeMogul is forecasting revenue of $20 million to $22 million for the current quarter, and $98 million to $102 million for the full year. Wall Street, on the other hand, is only sitting on a consensus revenue estimate of $18.9 million in the third quarter and $91.7 million for the full year. TubeMogul also issued a full-year EBITDA loss range of $12 million to $16 million.

Now what: Now that's the way you please Wall Street and investors after going public! TubeMogul, despite being a small-cap stock, still offers a lot of intrigue for me, as the formula for reaching consumers through targeted video advertising hasn't exactly been perfected yet. With video become a more popular medium to reach larger audiences, the assumption would be that TubeMogul will have little hassle growing the revenue side of its business.

The big question, of course, is whether costs will continue to match or outpace revenue growth.This isn't uncommon in a company's early years (TubeMogul was founded just seven years ago), but a few years from now investors are probably going to grow wary of borderline breakeven profit results. Based on Wall Street's current projections, revenue could grow in excess of 30% for the next few years, but profitability isn't expected on an annual basis until 2017 at the earliest. With that in mind I'd certainly consider the stock "intriguing" on any sizable pullback, but I'd suggest avoiding chasing it higher on a day like today.

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