Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Stratasys (SSYS -1.95%) dropped more than 30% early Tuesday after the 3D printing specialist announced preliminary 2014 results and 2015 guidance.
So what: Stratasys now expects fiscal-year 2014 revenue in the range of $748 million-$750 million, representing total year-over-year growth of 54%, including organic growth of 31%. That should translate to adjusted net income of $102 million-$105 million, or $1.97-$2.03 per diluted share.
For reference, when Stratasys reported third-quarter results in November, it told investors to expect 2014 revenue of $750 million-$770 million, and adjusted per-share earnings of $2.21-$2.31. Analysts, on average, were modeling earnings of $2.25 per share on sales of $763.6 million.
To explain the shortfall, Stratasys said its fourth quarter was hurt by slower growth from its MakerBot unit, sales from which increased 7% year over year and represented roughly 12% of the company's preliminary total Q4 revenue. Stratasys also updated its goodwill impairment analysis of MakerBot, and consequently expects to recognize a non-cash charge of approximately $100 million-$110 million in the quarter. Even so, keeping in mind Stratasys is currently developing a multi-tier distribution strategy for MakerBot aimed at enabling broader distribution, it insists the problem wasn't with demand for MakerBot products. Rather, the blame lies with "challenges associated with the introduction and scaling of its new product platform and the Company's rapidly evolving distribution model."
Now what: Finally, Stratasys provided 2015 guidance for revenue of $940 million-$960 million, with adjusted net income of $109 million-$118 million, or $2.07-$2.24 per diluted share. The midpoint of both ranges falls short of Wall Street's expectations for 2015 sales of $1.01 billion, and adjusted earnings of $2.89 per share. Again, however, that includes a ramp-up in investments to enable Stratasys' sustained growth, which is why the company reiterated long-term goals for its operating model of annual organic revenue growth of at least 25%, and adjusted net income as a percentage of sales of 16%-21%.
All things considered, while today's drop certainly isn't ideal, it appears Stratsys' long-term story remains firmly intact.
