Happy Monday! Here are eight great things I read last week.
In hindsight...
Apple (AAPL 0.52%) was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week. Here's what would have happened if it were added six years ago:
Aided by a pre-split Apple, whose stock exceeded $700 by 2012, the [Dow] would've reached 21,944.66 on Tuesday -- almost 4,300 points above its actual level. Adding the iPhone maker to the index amplifies the return not only because Apple rose sevenfold since 2008, but because its stock didn't split until June 2014, further boosting the price-weighted Dow.
Expectations
This won't end well:
Investors surveyed by [global investment management firm Legg Mason] said they will require an average of $2.5 million in retirement to enjoy the quality of life they have today.
That's about $2.2 million more than the average balance of $385,000 those investors actually had in 401(k)s and similar retirement plans, which might help explain why only 40 percent of the 458 investors surveyed said they are "very confident" in their ability to "retire at the age I want to."
Overvaluation
This will make it worse:
ETF.com: As you take measure of markets, what are the key takeaways right now?
Bill Bernstein: Well, I would say that the expected return of a balanced portfolio is the lowest it's been in financial history. We're looking at 3 or 4 percent on stocks, and we're looking at zero percent on bonds. Those are real inflation-adjusted figures.
ETF.com: And when you aggregate those two?
Bernstein: Two percent -- I think net of expenses, you're going to be very lucky to get 2 percent over the next 20 years.
Cost of living
Compared with the national average, here's the difference in cost of living:
Wisdom
This is a great quote by billionaire investor Ray Dalio:
To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can't make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you're betting against the consensus, there's a significant possibility you're going to be wrong, so you have to be humble.
Science
This is terrifying:
It's heady stuff. The world's first attempt to transplant a human head will be launched this year at a surgical conference in the US. The move is a call to arms to get interested parties together to work toward the surgery.
The idea was first proposed in 2013 by Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group in Italy. He wants to use the surgery to extend the lives of people whose muscles and nerves have degenerated or whose organs are riddled with cancer. Now he claims the major hurdles, such as fusing the spinal cord and preventing the body's immune system from rejecting the head, are surmountable, and the surgery could be ready as early as 2017.
Learning
I love this theory on the origins of science:
Your chapter on science is one of my favorites and so is the title of that chapter, "The Discovery of Ignorance." It presents the idea that science began when people discovered that there was ignorance, and that they could do something about it, that this was really the beginning of science. I love that phrase.
Long hours
Here's an amazing video about a week in the life of a Japanese salaryman:
Have a good week.
