If you're not on the lookout for companies blowing past their earnings estimates, you just don't know what you're missing. Nothing beats a company enriching its investors by toppling -- and topping -- Wall Street's bottom line targets. Why? Read on and see.
I normally take a look back at the companies that humbled the prognosticators over the past week, but it was a quiet week on the earnings front this time around. However, I should point out that the one notable company that did report this week -- Luby's
However, to truly dig into the long-term significance of besting the bean counters, let's look at a few companies that spent all of 2005 staring at Wall Street from the rear-view mirror.
We'll start with Google
Q3 2005 |
Q2 2005 |
Q1 2005 |
Q4 2004 |
Q3 2004 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS Estimate |
$1.36 |
$1.21 |
$0.92 |
$0.77 |
$0.56 |
EPS Actual |
$1.51 |
$1.36 |
$1.29 |
$0.92 |
$0.70 |
The shares have certainly gone along for the ride. It's easy to imagine the stock taking a serious spill when we get to the point at which analysts finally do manage to lasso a quarterly estimate. Rival Yahoo!
Apple Computer
Q4 2005 |
Q3 2005 |
Q2 2005 |
Q1 2005 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
EPS Estimate |
$0.37 |
$0.31 |
$0.24 |
$0.25 |
EPS Actual |
$0.38 |
$0.37 |
$0.34 |
$0.35 |
That brings us to Intuitive Surgical
Q3 2005 |
Q2 2005 |
Q1 2005 |
|
---|---|---|---|
EPS Estimate |
$0.29 |
$0.21 |
$0.19 |
EPS Actual |
$0.55 |
$0.40 |
$0.25 |
The stock was singled out early in 2005 in the Motley Fool Rule Breakers newsletter service and has more than doubled since then. In fact, Apple and Google also more than doubled in 2005. That's why I've spent the past few Mondays ferreting out the profit toppers in a weekly piece here called 3 Stocks That Blew the Market Away.
If companies keep showing up on the list, quarter after quarter, there's a pretty good chance that the capital appreciation will follow. Wall Street doesn't like to be outsmarted. But that's also why it's clearly a rewarding practice for investors buying into the Roadrunners that are making Wall Street E. Coyote look flat-out silly.
But what happens when these perpetual speedsters stumble? Normally, it's not a good sign. Analysts have caught on. It'll probably be harder to trick them the following quarter. That's my guess, at least.
Then again, that's not always the case. Pixar
Was this the end? Was Pixar finally ordinary? Not quite. It bounced back in the third quarter, earning $0.22 a share when the analysts were huddled at just half that amount. In one sequential step, Pixar had lulled the Market whizzes into complacency, only to peel out in front of their satisfied faces.
It doesn't always end this way, but just as an object in motion tends to stay in motion, a market thumper one quarter has a pretty fair shot at being a market thumper the following quarter, as well. But that's not to say that all of them will do so, of course.
For what it's worth, you'll find many stocks that have been recommended to Rule Breakers subscribers to be consistent humblers. Whether it's Intuitive Surgical or Steiner Leisure
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a fan of toppers. He does own shares in Pixar. The Foo l has a disclosure policy. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.