Classic-rock fans know Meat Loaf's "Paradise by the Dashboard Light" by heart. The rock epic tackles commitment indecision, with Mr. Loaf putting off his paramour's requests to settle down with his repeated appeal to "let me sleep on it" -- until he caves in at the end (and regrets it).
XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR ) and Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI ) are unlikely to regret their merger -- if they ever get that far. In their case, the Department of Justice has been the one belting out "let me sleep on it, baby, baby, let me sleep on it" for the past nine months.
The courtship -- just like Meat Loaf's song -- has been long and repetitive. But the end may finally be in sight. Shares of XM opened 7% higher this morning, fueled by a report from Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck, who expects a final regulatory recommendation from the Justice folks to come no later than Monday, possibly even today.
Peck isn't alone in suggesting a near-term resolution. SG Cohen's Thomas Watts was optimistic earlier this month that regulators were wrapping things up. He pegged the probability of the deal going through at a hearty 70%.
Peck is also upbeat on the prospects of a merger. His sources indicate that although some junior staffers are opposed to the deal, the higher-ups with more clout are leaning in favor of satellite-radio matrimony. XM and Sirius have already complied with many of the requests put before them, including a public commitment to rolling out lower-priced, flexible plans for consumers within a year of the deal's completion.
Most of the 20 respondents from a highly unscientific plea for your feedback last week are in favor of the deal. OK, so many of those respondents appear to be XM and Sirius shareholders with plenty to gain if the deal goes through. The Department of Justice, of course, is bound to be far less biased and much more thorough.
However, now that even automakers -- including Honda (NYSE: HMC ) , Toyota (NYSE: TM ) , and Ford (NYSE: F ) -- have thrown their weight behind supporting the deal, the pool of critics appears to be down to select politicians and terrestrial-radio operators.
Are we really on the clock? Are we really just a weekend away from getting this party started? I'm not bold enough to draw circles on the calendar, but I will be back to break everything down when a decision finally does come out.
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