This may be the easiest bull argument I'll ever make.
You probably don't think so. Defending Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX ) these days may feel like picketing for cooties. The signature shoes have always felt faddish, and the company gave bears plenty of cynicism-affirming ammo when inventory levels shot through the roof this past quarter.
Crocs explained away the blip as the product of foreign expansion and a broadening product line. The market didn't buy it, slamming the shares down sharply when the company's Halloween report proved more trick than treat.
The media was waiting for this day to happen. They'd love nothing better than to slap wheels on Crocs and call it Heelys (Nasdaq: HLYS ) , or glaze-fry it and call it Krispy Kreme.
Several pundits claimed that the company's guidance disappointed Wall Street. Add that to the inventory-stacking concerns, and battered shareholders headed for the exits.
But there's a side of the story not being told here. Analysts who follow the company religiously marinated in the bothersome quarterly conference call ... then hiked their profit targets!
It's true. Since the company's "disappointing" report, analysts have gone from expecting Crocs to earn $2.52 a share next year to $2.69 a share. And no one can charge these pros with being blindly bullish on Crocs. They have underestimated the company's quarterly earnings every single period since Crocs went public in February 2006.
In other words, this alleged pet rock of a stock still expects to grow earnings at a 35% clip next year, yet it's trading at less than 15 times forward profitability.
Maybe analysts are wrong, even if they have historically erred on the side of conservatism here. Maybe the inventory setback is the end of a trend, even though the company really is expanding aggressively overseas and broadening its product lines, including several different styles of shoes and even clothing items.
You're convinced that I'm wrong. This is 4Kids (NYSE: KDE ) when the bottom fell out of Yu-Gi-Oh! trading cards, or LeapFrog (NYSE: LF ) just as its electronic educational toys became tired. You're welcome to think that, and you're certainly not alone. Many of my Foolish friends are voraciously bearish on Crocs.
Why? Is it because the original shoes were gaudy? I won't argue in favor of Crocs as a fashion statement, but the comfort benefits of its signature croslite resin are hard to ignore. From nurses to chefs, industries that require a lot of time on one's feet have turned to Crocs to develop niche-specific footwear.
If you don't think the company stands a chance in going upmarket with boutique shoes, or making a splash in one-of-a-kind apparel that features a wearable version of croslite, you're denying Crocs the right to prove that it's more than just a one-hit wonder. What if croslite clothing is a performance-apparel breakthrough on the level of Under Armour (NYSE: UA ) ? It's highly unlikely, but Crocs' rich cash stash means the company can afford to take big gambles on new products.
After the beating it took the first time around, do you really think that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT ) would even attempt a second version of the Zune this holiday season if it weren't flush with money? Crocs proved that it could catch lightning in a bottle once, with profit margins that top nearly all of its fellow footwear makers, save for Coach (NYSE: COH ) . How badly do you want to bet against a company like that?
Can the inventory buildup slash margins in a fire sale? Sure. Can that, coupled with the proliferation of cheap knockoffs, sting margins permanently? Perhaps, though analysts expect margins to widen next year. Am I happy with insiders selling their holdings at substantially higher prices? No. However, the stock already has this negativity baked in.
The shares are cheap. The company is misunderstood. I love my two pairs of Crocs. It's the easiest bullish argument to make.
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