This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades

At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.

But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we'll be tracking the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and worst and sorriest, too.

And speaking of the best ...
As morning broke across America today, the markets turned a bright shade of red. One stock, however, stands out for its only slightly pinkish hue: Corning (NYSE: GLW). The glassblower's stock is proving anything but fragile this morning, thanks to its brand new "buy" rating from CAPS All-Star Jefferies.

Lauding Corning's 55% market share in the market for LCD glass, and the proliferation of flat-panel televisions over cathode-ray-tube sets, Jefferies says Corning is set to enjoy "healthy growth over the next few years." Meanwhile, the firm's new bendable optical-fiber product promises even more growth to come.

Let's go to the tape
How good is Jefferies at picking high-tech stocks like Corning? Pretty darn good, actually. Ranked in the top 10% of investors on CAPS, Jefferies has racked up an impressive record of calling winners in the tech and semiconductor industries:

Company	Jefferies Said:	CAPS Says (5 max):	Jefferies' Pick Beating S&P by:
MEMC Electronic  (NYSE: WFR)	Outperform	****	115 points
VMware (NYSE: VMW)	Outperform	***	60 points
Syntel (Nasdaq: SYNT)	Outperform	****	44 points

And while it has also collected a few failures along the way...

Company	Jefferies Said:	CAPS Says:	Jefferies' Pick Lagging S&P by:
Nortel (NYSE: NT)	Outperform	*	47 points
Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM)	Outperform	****	21 points
RF Micro (Nasdaq: RFMD)	Outperform	***	12 points

... overall, Jefferies' wins greatly outweigh its losses. In fact, that's key to the firm's ranking on CAPS. Much like its peer Citigroup, which we looked at yesterday, Jefferies gets nearly as many calls wrong (48%) as right (52%), and depends on the quality of its correct guesses to eclipse its losers.

Unlike yesterday's Citi pick, however, I think Jefferies is right on target about Corning. Not only do the firm's prospects look bright, but its price also looks right. At a trailing P/E of 18, Corning should be reasonably priced, provided it can live up to analysts' expectations of 17% long-term profits growth. And if Corning exceeds expectations (as it has in each of the last seven quarters), the stock might even deserve the label "bargain".

Do you agree with Jeffries, or do you think Corning will falter? Come to CAPS and give us your view.