Celgene Looks Both Ways

The JP Morgan Healthcare Conference gave drug giant Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) a platform yesterday from which to inform investors about its top-line 2007 financials and its guidance for 2008.

Let's start with last year. Thanks to the continued early-stage launch of multiple-myeloma drug Revlimid, Celgene expects 2007 revenue to be up around 56%, to $1.4 billion, and earnings per share of "approximately" $1.05.

In 2008 -- owing to steeper competition from Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick Millennium Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: MLNM) and the difficulty in growing sales from a much higher base -- revenue growth is expected to decline to "more than" 30%, with earnings per share in the $1.50 to $1.55 range (excluding the effects of the Pharmion acquisition).

2008 is going to be a bit of a transition year for Celgene. It will be digesting its $2.9 billion buyout of Pharmion (Nasdaq: PHRM) and continuing to roll out Revlimid to European countries and elsewhere around the world. Guidance is for worldwide Revlimid sales of $1.25 billion this year.

Unless new data comes out showing that Revlimid is the clearly superior choice in treating multiple myeloma (as well as some of the other indications for which it and rival Millennium's Velcade are used), 2009 is going to be a much tougher year for comparison purposes, as Revlimid will by then be a more mature product in many countries outside the United States.

Fortunately, Celgene has multiple label-expanding studies under way for Revlimid. Much like such studies boosted the good fortunes of fellow oncology drugmaker ImClone Systems (Nasdaq: IMCL) last year, Celgene's longer-term growth prospects for Revlimid will hinge on these new opportunities. 

At the JP Morgan conference yesterday, Celgene's CEO said that his goal is for Celgene to become a major pharmaceutical company. Hopefully he was referring to growing Celgene into the size of a Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) or AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) and not mimicking the pipeline and growth woes of some of the pharmas. Until its other molecules ripen in its pipeline, the Revlimid data and that of its competitors will dictate the intermediate-term future for Celgene.