By
Toby Shute
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More Articles
April 14, 2008
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They came, they saw, they canceled.
Just last November, Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ) announced its intention to build a polysilicon plant in order to combat the silicon squeeze. Now the company has canned that plan. What has changed in such a short period of time?
By all accounts, spot polysilicon is still hard to come by, and recent disruptions at MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR ) certainly don't help matters. There's no shortage of polysilicon contracts, however. Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE ) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP ) sewed up South Korean supply deals, leading to a big upgrade for Suntech. LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK ) landed a deal with an unidentified producer, while Trina Solar tapped a treasure trove of its own.
While I've expressed concerns about Trina's business partner, which burned Solarfun Power (Nasdaq: SOLF ) last year, Trina seems confident enough in the impending industry ramp-up to abandon its plans for the plant. I'm pleased to see Trina scrap the plan, because by the time the factory would have opened its doors, the worst of the polysilicon pinch would have been over. Better to leave this expensive endeavor to LDK and Hoku Scientific (Nasdaq: HOKU ) , both of which are further along in their poly projects.
If you think I'm being unnecessarily cautious about the polysilicon supply, consider this snippet from Trina's investor Q&A:
The average price of polysilicon, though remaining high in the short term, is expected to decrease in the long term as a significant portion of polysilicon manufacturing capacity currently under construction becomes available. [Emphasis added]
That's a tacit acknowledgement by Trina that not all of these new sources are secure. Still, the solar player's abandonment of its own plant is pretty reassuring that new poly supply will be significant.
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