Blue Coat of Many Colors

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Much of the streaming video you've been downloading from the Olympics is possible because of the technology Blue Coat Systems (Nasdaq: BCSI) and Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) installed at China's CCTV and NBC. Minus the charges for its acquisition of Packeteer, revenues have been streaming into Blue Coat as well.

On Thursday, the network security and application delivery company reported a GAAP loss of $0.15 per share, but absent the merger costs had profits of $0.16 per share. Revenue rose 64% from last year and 16% from the prior quarter.

The limp U.S. enterprise market has been part of analyst concerns about Blue Coat's buyout of Packeteer, a WAN traffic prioritization technology company. The prospects for growth seemed dim, and with a number of competitors vying for the shrinking dollars being spent, the potential for contraction was large. Blue Coat also needs to ease clients' concerns about relationships being maintained after its merger with Packeteer is complete. Blue Coat's shares had fallen by nearly 40% since the start of the year.

Yet the merger also suggested that industry consolidation would become more prevalent. Riverbed (Nasdaq: RVBD) has been seen as a takeover candidate, and F5 Networks (Nasdaq: FFIV) rounds out a number of smaller players competing in a space dominated by Cisco and Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR).

WAN optimization, however, is slowly giving way to WAN application delivery: The market researchers at IDC say Blue Coat is an industry leader in that, along with Riverbed. The market is expected to grow to $1.1 billion over the next few years, with companies looking to boost security and speed while at the same time reducing their costs. Blue Coat hopes to capture a large part of the business through Packeteer, which will help system administrators see what is occurring over their networks. Application visibility -- and Packeteer's platform today is capable of recognizing 650 applications -- will be the key to the plan.

While Blue Coat's results weren't very impressive, they underscored management's contention that Packeteer would add to earnings fairly quickly. Costs still weigh on the company, but it's a marathon, not a sprint, and Blue Coat ought to win in the end.

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Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 26, 2008, at 1:32 PM, PersuingFreedom wrote:

    This is a "synergy" story from the 80's all over again. Read Random Walk by Burton Malkiel to understand it better. The gist is that two weak companies don't make a strong one.

    Analysts opinion about direction of the market toward WAN application delivery is nothing but marketing messages being fed to them by the company.

    Numbers tell the real story. The big guys(Cisco, Juniper) will dominate this market because WAN optimization is moving towards integration with their existing edge router products.

    IDC and Gartner market data show the integrated market is growing 5 times faster than stand-alone device market.

    RVBD is very capable and they will put up a worthy fight but their battle is uphill from here on and they are being flanked by Datadomain in the Data Center replication market.

    That's how this market will play out. Protect your assets and avoid this stock.

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11/9/2009 4:00 PM
BCSI $25.84 Up +1.23 +5.00%
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Cisco Systems, Inc… CAPS Rating: ****
FFIV $47.88 Up +0.76 +1.61%
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JNPR $25.06 Down +0.00 +0.00%
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