Ciena Corp.
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell or waffle? Nineteen analysts color Ciena's outlook: 10 say to buy it, eight vote hold, and one says to sell it.
- Revenues. On average, they're looking for 24% sales growth, to $253.6 million.
- Earnings. Pro forma profits are expected to fall 10%, to $0.37 per share.
What management says:
CEO Gary Smith boasted last quarter about how Ciena is eating its competitors' lunch. Growth at Ciena has been "faster-than-market," he said, implying that Ciena may be taking market share from rivals like Cisco
What management does:
The numbers back Smith up on both counts. Operating margins are going gangbusters at Ciena; the rolling net and gross margins are up nicely as well. We may not yet be at Cisco or Juniper
1/07 |
4/07 |
7/07 |
10/07 |
1/08 |
4/08 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross |
46.2% |
44.7% |
45.0% |
46.5% |
48.1% |
50.6% |
Operating |
1.2% |
1.7% |
3.5% |
5.6% |
6.2% |
9.5% |
Net |
2.9% |
4.9% |
9.0% |
10.6% |
11.9% |
12.5% |
All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
One Fool says:
Which is why it pains me to point out a quirk that could set Ciena back. Management warned in July that two of its investments in structured investment vehicles are continuing to head south. They've already cost Ciena $13 million; this quarter, they'll lop another $5 million or $6 million off of profits. (Call it a nickel per share.) It doesn't look to me, though, like Wall Street has factored these investment losses into its estimates -- which are, after all, pro forma in nature.
Investors may suffer a nasty surprise when they read the GAAP numbers on Thursday.
What did we expect out of Ciena last quarter, and what did we get? Find out in: