3 Questions About Sirius XM Radio

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Covering satellite radio giant Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) is always a treat, as long as you remember to don the Teflon windbreaker.

Now that we have comment boxes below our stories, you're getting a sample of what my email inbox typically looks like. I love it. I don't mind taking my lumps, when they're well earned. I relish the feedback. I got plenty of comments when I wrote Monday about "5 Reasons Why Sirius XM Is at $0.43." (Check out the link to see the full slate of responses.)

I figured I would address some of the more common queries and venom in today's column.

The XM recommendation
DemianBohemian writes: "Why were you guys pumping XM as a stand alone company up in the double digits all those years to your paid subscribers then?"

This often comes up, so let's dive right in. I recommended XM Satellite Radio to Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers three years ago at $30.94. Obviously I felt strongly about the industry's promise and XM's prospects. Obviously I was wrong.

With losses mounting despite the subscriber gains, the newsletter recommended that subscribers sell the stock 13 months later at $14.85. It was a brutal loss, but the bearish turn served readers well. With XM shares being exchanged for 4.6 shares of Sirius this summer, it now values XM at $2.21 a share, given last night's close of $0.48 a share for the merged company. In other words, the stock has taken an 85% plunge since the sell recommendation. We spared our subscribers, and it's why premium newsletters are as important for the timing of their sells as they are for their buy recommendations. It was a horrendous pick, but cutting our losses saved it from being a disastrous one.

Subsidizing the hardware
Mailinator writes: "Why doesn't Sirius give away receivers and installation like the TV Satellite companies do with the DVRs in exchange for a 2 year contract?"

It's a great model for industries like satellite television and wireless phones, but their subscribers are also paying $50-$80 a month. The math isn't as kind when you have pricy receivers, and users paying $13 a month (or less). It is why TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) has never been able to get the balance right between subsidizing its DVRs and tethering its users to long-term contracts.

Overseas satellite radio provider WorldSpace (Nasdaq: WRSP) ran a somewhat successful promotion in India three years ago, offering a receiver and three months of service for the equivalent of $45. The problem is that the typical Indian subscriber was paying just $3.35 a month. That model is kinder domestically, but Sirius will never compete against the sums that DirecTV (Nasdaq: DTV) and Dish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) are billing their monthly satellite television subscribers.

Splits in reverse
TheeShawn writes: "Just having a higher stock price doesn't engender confidence. Look at JAVA (SunMicro), that worked wonders didn't it?"

I stand by my column last month, suggesting that a reverse stock split is in the company's best interest. SunMicrosystems (Nasdaq: JAVA) has collapsed since last year's 1-for-4 reverse split, but that's not a fair example with the stock market tanking by roughly 40% over the past year.

If you're a quality company, you will survive -- and thrive -- after a reverse split. It clearly worked for priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN), which is rocking nicely these days despite its 1-for-6 reverse split five years ago. If you're not a quality company, you're toast anyway.

When you are a consumer-facing company, you can't afford to have a share price that amounts to pocket change. Most subscribers don't know that a dollar-menu burger can be swapped for two shares of Sirius these days. Even fewer listeners know about the three huge debt payments due next year. However, a share price does influence how a company is portrayed by the mainstream media. It's a zero-sum game on paper, but perceptions matter.

Comment boxes never sleep
I'm not naive. The comment box below will fill up with venomous shots, and hopefully a little constructive banter. I welcome it all.

I'm a believer in satellite radio. I have been a Sirius subscriber since 2004 and an XM subscriber since 2006. This doesn't mean that I am going to see the stock through rose-colored beer goggles. The challenges are all too real, and anyone upset that financial articles on the industry typically have a negative bias must concede that the analysis has been correct, given the rock-bottom share price.

So let's try something different. What will it take to make Sirius XM Radio a winning investment? The question isn't rhetorical. Kick in with your thoughts on what can turn things around for Sirius. I'll be back in a few days to go over some of the best responses.

More news than static on Sirius XM:

What do the unfolding financial crisis and ongoing market volatility mean for your money? The Fool's here with answers. Get the best of our daily commentary and analysis in your inbox simply by entering your email address in the box below.

A free 30-day subscription to Rule Breakers will give you all the inside dope on our pick and then pan of XM Satellite Radio. Priceline.com is an active Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz subscribes to both XM and Sirius. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story, save for TiVo. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 1:56 PM, tmph1 wrote:

    Time for Mel to move fast with the new financing structure and not general statements that he is confident it can be done. Investors are not as confident, will it be done and how?

    bst rgds,

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:08 PM, siriusbull wrote:

    I agree with the previous post - with the Fed focusing on getting cash back out into the economy, this is the time for SIRI to secure their next round of refinancing. I think getting the February '09 payment secured might give us a little room to breathe.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:09 PM, doughboy2345 wrote:

    Sirius XM could trim a lot of the fat on the service they provide and free up a ton of money. I would bet that they could cut the NHL and NBA and not lose but 5 subscribers. The Stern channels, the NFL, MLB and music channels are really all they need and they'd continue growing their subscriber base on that alone.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:22 PM, JasonMcCann wrote:

    The only hurdles I see in this stock are the debt refinancing issues. Once those are cleared up, it's only a matter of time until we see positive cash flow and it will be off to the races. Mel has his own stake in the game with his recent purchases of company stock so I don't see bankruptcy in our future. I'll take massive dilution over restructuring anyday - we can always buy back stock later.

    Some factors I have never heard being talked about:

    1) Double the satellites (post-merger) = double the bandwidth! More TV channels, and how about internet capabilities? Mobile hotspot anyone?

    2) Marginal increases of the ad revenue dollar - 10 million subs is nothing to shake a stick at but 20 million will grab the attention of advertising heavyweights (think Budweiser, Kraft, Mattel). SiriusXM should be commanding greater ad revenue per spot. It's already happening - when was the last time you heard that annoying colon cleanse commercial?

    Bottom line: "Hell hath no fury like a cult stock scorned." - Macke, CNBC

    The negative sentiment over this stock will keep it down further and longer than average, but the viability and popularity of the product will help it to endure these times and just like everyone and their mother is negative today, one day, we'll all be buyers.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:23 PM, sharkbrains wrote:

    As a lifetime Sirius subscriber (purchased in 2003) as well as a stockholder, I can honestly say that if I did not have this service in my car for my 90-120 minute cummute I'd have been seen on the 11 o'clock news a very long time ago. Lets say it simply, listening to a vast array of programming with NO COMERCIALS keeps you sane with long commutes. And if you don't like a particular song or program, you change the channel to something else without going commercial hopping like you would on the FM dial.

    But what about the business? It is well known that Sirius was fully funded before aquiring XM. It is also well known that XM without being aquired was done - ready to declare bankrupcy and eventually go under alltogether. They simply could not aquire and retain consumers the way Sirius had been doing over the past 3 years. And when you think of that its quite sad considering as little as 2-3 years ago they had a 2 million subscriber lead that was wiped out this year.

    Everyone talks about the loans coming due in '09 as a reason for the declining stock price. Now lets be honest, do you honestly think that a service industry opperating with a paid subscription (*cough* guarenteed income) in 17 million cars around the USA is not going to find a loan? Let's take it a step further, add to that a low ball estimate of another 5 million subscribers with radios in their cars that are inactive. Roll in the new ala-cart pricing plans. If Sirius gets just 20% of those 5 million back your looking at the most basic $7 dollar package netting you yes 7 million dollars per month (84 million per year) without any investment by the company thanks to OEM prior installations or prior retail investment gone lapse. Suddenly that 300 million dollar payout due in Feb '09 does not look so big - huh how bout that.

    Lets go even farther, look at the quarterly income statement of Sirius and notice that the Selling General and Administrative cost per quarter for the last 3 quarters is about 90 million dollars. Lets also assume that XMSR pre-merger was the same. Ummm XMSR's portion is now eliminated, Sirius has noone left to compete against and you can easily cut that bill in half without concern. Savings = 135 million dollars ---- PER Quarter. Research and Development spends 9 million per quarter. You have noone to compete against now, this means you can make less radios and scale back the bill to lets say half - factor in no R&D for XMSR and you save 13.5 million more per quarter.

    What we are getting at here are a lot of sinergies of simple operations and simple cash management. If Sirius truely wants to shore up their finances all they really have to do is stop spending and they are cash flow positive. Subscribers will still be coming in via the OEM network - and oh yeah Sirius can now make 1 universal radio for all OEM car companies to install - saving more money.

    This company is not going anywhere, I hope all those short sellers are covered because when not if Mel finds a company to finance the 3 billion in total debt like he is looking for; this stock is going through the roof. Hint to those short sellers - the auto industry just got 25 Billion in guarenteed loans, of which they can give their little buddies a simple 3 Billion dollar loan and collect interest above the low rates that the government will give them and turn a small profit - while also allowing Sirius to buck out from the debt talk problems.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:27 PM, DemianBohemian wrote:

    How can you claim that you "served readers well" by recommending your subscribers buy XM at over $30 and then telling them to sell after over a 50% loss a few months later. Sure it went lower, but that was a horrible pick during a bull market. XM was way overvalued at $30. What were you thinking? If you liked XM as a stand alone company at over $30 when it was in heated competition with Sirius. How about both Sirius and XM at an over 90% discount?

    They are just about to be profitable with huge synergy savings from the merger as well as ramping penetration in the new car market - which softens any slow down in car sales. The new "best of" packages will drive tons of revenue from existing as well as new subscribers. The new XM portable and "a la carte" radios will drive retail sales going into the holiday shopping season.

    The debt issue has been overblown. They will be able to pay off the Feb. '09 debt with cash on hand and existing credit facilities if they needed to. I wouldn't want to be short when the news of financing crosses the wires. And it could happen any time now.

    The Starplayr iPhone/ iPod Touch app should be out any day now. This will drive many new subscribers as they don't need to buy a radio. Millions of potential new subs could come from that pool from all over the world.

    Putting out article after article bashing SIRI, without mentioning any of these positives along with all your bearish talk, does a disservice to your readers and subscribers. Don't you think that it's a more attractive price down here at .43 for both companies than when you were recommending it at over $30 just for XM?

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:37 PM, K444fool wrote:

    Just an idea....

    Timing is perfect to create the XMP3 as the MUST HAVE TECH TOY THIS XMAS.

    With an extremely aggressive marketing/advertising campaign, the XMP3 could easily be perceived as the MUST HAVE tech-toy gift for this holiday season for baby boomers. Targeting the 30-60 year old walker-jogger demographic. (It can't be represented as hip young and sexy, because that's ipod and not the xmp3), but there is a more mature market out there that would love this product at the right price point if packaged with comp 6 months subscription, as the perfect Christmas/Holiday present. Plus when economy is bad, health is in. And even in a bad economy if you have an income you are buying presents for your loved ones.

    To be quiet honest, currently the XMP3 is barely known, certainly not brand recognized in mainstream America. This is the perfect Boomer new toy and no body else is coming up with decently priced must have Xmas product for this demographic because of economy. The media blitz alone would help momentum – new subscriber base, positive public brand perception transferring into the market benefiting stock, etc. If done right, it's there for the taking... Give them away on Oprah, Ellen, Regis, top consumer media writers etc., news media, etc.

    Perfect for husbands, wives, parents, best friends...

    -Just one idea to get them moving in the right direction.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 2:40 PM, bb51 wrote:

    How can you not call an over 50% loss a disaster? Also, why do you constantly pound on this stock? Are you short SIRI? No credible analyst would constantly comment on the same stock. You're turning it into your own message board on Sirius, which tells me you and the Motley Fool's don't have other stocks to research at the moment. Good reason not to subscribe.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 3:01 PM, daiglels wrote:

    For me, a lot will be answered after 1 full quarter of the combined company. Hopefully by then we'll see a lot of synergies and reduced costs... Right now, there are too many questions.

    Also, for me, an issue is identity. You had 2 companies, 2 brands. Now you have 1 company with 2 in its name and 2 separate brands. I'd like to see what the plan will be to full integrate. As a Sirius sub I'll be upset if XM gets a new channel of something I want. What's the plan? In the past arguments had been made that XM had better quality audio... So why not have one universal channel offering and have users pay a premium for the higher quality broadcast?

    The final thing about their model that I think makes Cable and Satellite TV stronger is that while Comcast owns channels, not every one of the channels you get is owned by Comcast. It's a little different logistically, but why not pick up some regular radio content? If while I was driving out to the midwest, I could still hear the WEEI morning show, I'd be in heaven. And even locally, I'd be willing to pay an extra buck or 2 just to hear it clearly and not deal with static or having to change channels when one got out of range. I think there's a lot of opportunity there. If relations between Sirius XM and old school radio weren't so strained, it could be win win. More subs for satellite, more revenue for regular radio. I get my local NBC station free over the airwaves, but I only watch it through my cable box...

    I love my Sirius radio but I do find myself still going through the dial at times to hear whats going on with the Red Sox or the local news.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 3:09 PM, chanman02 wrote:

    Just think about the Automotive Industry, If it was in the opposite situation right now(meaning growing) then Sirius Radio would be one of the greatest companies in the U.S given thier marketing department continues to lock up deals with the automaker. As soon as a company comes out with an amazing fuel efficient, safe, low cost car and Sirius can lock up a deal with that manufacturer, watch the stock start to make a climb. A slow one but still, my belief is if you are investing in Sirius you are investing in the Car companies. If you sell SIRI then you are not convinced a US manufacturer can really build a new age, smart investment car.. WHAMMY

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 3:39 PM, sharkbrains wrote:

    Actually chanman02 - Its totally irrelevant how well the auto industry does. Sirius could care less if the auto industry tanks because cars will still be bought no matter what type of economy there is. And thinking of the big 5 auto makers, at least 3 will make it through the slowdown. However what is important to Sirius is the overall OEM penetration rate - that is out of the actual number of cars sold - Sirius wants to have a very high percentage of OEM installs of those vehicles. So it is more important to get as many OEM installs as possible versus volume and a low OEM install rate.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 3:50 PM, RockerKing wrote:

    A new CEO might do the trick. I would rather see someone who is concerned with living up to his fiduciary responsibility to increase the value of the company on behalf of the shareholders, rather than the current CEO who is more concerned with lining his own pockets and that of the talent.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:01 PM, PTURBED wrote:

    This ship started sinking when Howard Stern climbed aboard and it will continue to sink as long as the "experts" that pumped this stock continue to NOW dump on it in an attempt to save face for the horrible advice they gave.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:04 PM, PTURBED wrote:

    bb51...

    I must admit I wonder the same...

    Why do these clowns continue to hammer on this stock? It appears to be an attempt to drive it, not an attempt to "analyze" it.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:08 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    Heres the best way. For Goldman Sachs to stop using their influence as MM's, and stop sending in 1million plus all or nothing order to reverse momentum and cap rises. That would be by far the best and number 1 most effective way for this stock to go up. O, and have stupid people like you stop mentioning it in articles and blogs.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:12 PM, nhpest wrote:

    Please be kind, this is my first post...

    If I was CEO, I would do the following to make Sirius XM Radio a winning investment:

    1. Start an immediate short-term campaign now through the holiday season. Anyone who purchases a 12 month prepaid subscription gets the Best of Sirius/XM for free. If 10% of the subs bite at this, it would raise the 300M needed to pay the first debt installment due in February. Even if they pick up half of the debt, it would send a strong signal to Wall St. This shows the market the product is still very strong even in a bad economy.

    2. Open up a channel that broadcasts exclusive Sirius/XM content for free. It would be a channel that competes with terrestrial and internet radio and allows non-subscribers to get a taste of what they are missing. They have a huge untapped audience, with millions of cars that have unactivated radios installed. Occasional ads could focus the exclusive content that Sirius XM offers. It could also be used for promotions that feature a channel for a few days, much like HBO does.

    3. Merge the duplicate channels immediately, starting with the decade and fringe music channels, and make this very public to show the synergies are under way and saving millions right now. Existing subscribers probably wouldn't notice the difference and would be assured the merger was a positive thing.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:12 PM, mogrifier wrote:

    Sirius XM needs some re-marketing. For cars, I think they need to push the idea that you can upgrade your sound system without getting a new car and for a whole lot less. To compete against the mp3 player, they need to point out that they are the value play- cheaper, no computer required, no music to move from CD to ipod, good programming, etc. It's simpler and cheaper, which is a good message today. I think in-home use should be promoted. I have a home stereo, but only listen to my ipod, my XM, or a CD on it. Radio is dead. With analog TV going away, they should be promoting that they can provide top cable news over satellite for in-home at less than the price of basic cable. Many people won't know what to do when their TV quits getting channel 7. I think a satellite radio also makes an excellent emergency radio. Sell a hand-crank power supply for your radio and use it to get emergency information. Local radio goes home when a hurricane comes- satellite can save the day. What about Internet Radio? Is that in your car? No. Will it be? Maybe, but many years until wireless internet coverage for major metro areas and no one but satellite will ever cover the wide open spaces in between. Data broadcasting (IP File Casting) is another way they could get creative. This would require embedding or just connecting to the computer and LCD in your fancy car, but imagine metro-area data feeds- RSS, GeoRSS- put on a map in your car. Sirius needs to up their game on marketing.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:17 PM, keroyk wrote:

    I think that your answers to the question suck it is not only that The SEC held up the merger for 17 months and that dident help the situation also the financing is also a problem for the merger. lets see what happens to

    subcribers and the future financing and cost savings that is important for future groth of the merger. This is the posative for situation for the company.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:31 PM, getserious08 wrote:

    With the company having over 3 billion

    shares outstanding, and tot. rev under

    3, why dont they buy back X shares,

    or at least file to do so...might scare the

    crap out of the shorts?...or is it too late?

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 4:33 PM, MichChiro wrote:

    In the current credit crisis, cash is king (man...that's a lot of alliteration!). Sirius XM is trading like the company is going bankrupt, but I don't believe that will ultimately happen. Subscribers continue to pile up and the merger-related savings are only in the very early stages at this point. I see so many possibilities for this company in the long-term, and they will greatly benefit from interoperable radios in the near future. There is simply a great deal of fear right now about credit, and that won't last forever. For now, Sirius XM would reap huge rewards by raking in some cash this holiday season. There are numerous promotions that could be created to help accomplish this goal. The company just launched the 'Best of Both Worlds,' so why not offer six months of that service FREE for anyone willing to pony up for a year or more of basic service now? It really doesn't cost the company anything extra, right? If only 10% of the current subscriber base took advantage of this offer, there's the first $300 million to PAY OFF the February convertibles. This buys some time (until May, when the next refinancing will be needed), which is the biggest issue right now. My guess is that this situation will be much different (and better!) seven months from now. Also, with significantly reduced debt and profit coming in 2009, the company will be in a much better position to refinance the rest. With the 25 billion the auto co's are gettting from the government, I highly doubt that Sirius XM will have a major problem finding the money they need to get through next year. Once the debt is out of the way (looks like they could clear it up no later than 2011), earnings will skyrocket. One other note...I know that there are naysayers who claim that free wi-fi radio, iPODs, etc. will kill satrad, but I don't think they really get it. Satrad is about CONTENT. You can get music free from other devices, but can you get all the sports, Howard, and the rest for free? Nope. People are willing to pay for good CONTENT, just like cable tv. Who has only free TV in their home these days?

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 5:02 PM, worldwide28 wrote:

    Looking at the positives:

    1.) SIRI has 20,000,000 subscribers paying something like $12/month. That is approx. 2.88 billion/year in revenue. (compared to a market cap of 1.33 billion and debt of 1.28). On a valuation basis.. this looks REALLY cheap.

    2.) Subscribers love the product and will continue to pay (most believe it is cheap for what they are getting).

    3.) Subscriptions will continue to grow.. while margin cost is minimal

    4.) The second round of negotiations with information providers (H. Stern, MLB, Oprah, etc...) will be much more fairly priced that are tied to users wanting the service (ex. MLB cost $2/month, SIRI gets $1, MLB gets $1).

    5.) SIRI has 20 million customers, that pay a premium for a better product. They are a GREAT audience for advertisers on the channels that have advertising.

    6.) Great taker-over candidate... If someone buys the firm (and the debt).. it will immediatly be cash-flow positive.. and the customers alone are worth alot of money (see #5)

    If this refi doesn't kill them... it is all up hill from here.

    You admitted you were wrong when suggesting to buy at 30.. and right to sell at 14... That means you're right 50% and wrong 50%... Where is the skill?

    At least if you make a recommendation now.. we can see if you have skill... (well, not really).

    so... buy or sell?

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 5:09 PM, ibEddy wrote:

    One thing that would help is that our teachers (news media) understands that we are paying for content wired to a button. Your article yesterday assumed that wifi would harm satellite radio, so given a national wifi network if someone without your knowledge replaces your satellite radio with a wifi radio wired to siri you would be able to tell because? You probably also think Mel doesn’t already have a wifi radio (old tech) as a prototype or on paper ready to go.

    You’re also wrong in assuming that content itself is king. Remember that it was the local DJ who pioneered internet radio. The point is that it doesn’t matter if your web, satellite, or broadcast radio you will not make it (except for mood plays) in the automobile unless you are wired to a real radio button.

    I think that we can safely predict that in the next 5 to 10 years both siri and the local DJ will dominate the market via a physical wifi radio.

    Ed

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    | ,___|

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    /___\

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  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2008, at 6:00 PM, bobmf wrote:

    carryover debt with existing holders thru 09 or if available, shorter term via bank loan. Citi likely, analyst pro. Re-fi entire package debt longer term when rates are at long term low % rates- fixed callable bonds as creit windows open. Announce a buyback program. Use 1/4- 441mil cash on hand to begin a buy back program. Scale in as profits come forth.Promote a management pay schedule based on performance. Temporary halt to all insider set stock sales. Promote new apparatus heavy going into season with new pricing. Very affordable gift and one that keeps on giving. Approach new mkts where mtly outgo a concern, seniors via a promotion thru aarp's mthly letter--arrange discounts for initial one year membership. Expand video concept and sales to manufactures in motorhome, luxury boats, ships. Get high end audio company--Bose--to incorporate tech, design sale their customer base. Offer incentives for re-accuring revenue. Revise existing context providers contracts based solely on number of subs each bringing into the company. Don't go into cramer's den again unless on speed and mouth engaged and set to full speed/afterburner ignited. Gain profitability. Sell 1/2 at 20. Simple.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 12:35 AM, stilljustbig wrote:

    One of the best options that I am seeing as a possible solution to the short term revenue issue with Sirius/XM was touched on by nhpest above.

    " 2. Open up a channel that broadcasts exclusive Sirius/XM content for free. It would be a channel that competes with terrestrial and internet radio and allows non-subscribers to get a taste of what they are missing. They have a huge untapped audience, with millions of cars that have unactivated radios installed. Occasional ads could focus the exclusive content that Sirius XM offers. It could also be used for promotions that feature a channel for a few days, much like HBO does.

    This is a great option in my opinion nhpest well put! And yes, use it as a promotion tool to get more subscribers through exposing your product through the free service.

    The service that Sirius/XM has been touting from the beginning is "commercial free music." While this is a service that is worth paying for, just as cable TV is "worth it" for its lack of commercials and great content, there is a reason why free radio and television remains and always will... free. Of course in the current Sirius/XM business model subscriber growth is completely essential, however, let's not get so caught up on subscriber growth through "commercial free music" that we neglect to adopt a business model that is time tested and currently Driving a company like Google .. free products/services through paid advertisements. Google sure took this model and will continue to run with it. Imagine the millions of people that will be waiting in line to accept a free tvs,computers,phones from Google that are inundated with target advertisements. Athough there is money to be made in selling a tv/computer/phone there is a tone of money to be made in giving away the tv/computer/phone and making money from this longtime powerful model. This is a whole separate conversation so ill save it, but I think that it's applicable and fascinating and something to certainly consider for the future of products and services that can deliver advertisements.

    I understand that the subscriptions must carry Sirius/XM, but right now they need more revenue. I just support the idea of taking a bite out of the ad revenue that has yet to be tapped into by a company that needs it to stay afloat.

    One of many things that I hope Mel already aware of and working on.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 9:08 AM, maxstep wrote:

    Aristotle, As you may recall you have received a few emails from me over the years. Some you responded to, some you ignored. My position has always been that the best you can expect for the SR industry is that it will serve a very small niche market. It will never be a truely successful business model because most people don't need it nor want it. True there are those die hard fans for whom it serves a purpose, but as a successful business model, forget about it. Over the years the subscriber base will slowly erode. Three years ago I projected between 2012-2015 it will virtually cease to exist, and I standby that projection. However, at this time my suggestion is that the company should be taken private so that there will be no more wasted dialog about it or SR technology. Max

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 11:19 AM, wyndjunkie wrote:

    portable portable portable take a nike aproach and get the right people in all sports extreme and otherwise to help promote the new (ipod aproach) tiny detachable portable unit that when attached to the larger more stationary unit can download record dvr music from your favorite stations. at present they call that the love button and it is awesome but we have the s50 and stiletto 100 and as a biker and runner they are just to bulky... I am one of the fools that never let go of my shares so please mel hang in there and be creative

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 11:21 AM, wyndjunkie wrote:

    or just get it on my phone so I have only one thing to cart around

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 12:15 PM, jbrennan33 wrote:

    I don't know why I bother reading anything by the fool. The information is almost set up for day traders. I'm in Sirius for the long haul. I understand that the company is debt burdened and heavily diluted. But I've been buying, much to the probable wincing of the fool, on the way down so that my current position is at $1.82 per share.

    Here's the deal Sirius XM is not going anywhere, first, Karmazin is no scumbag, when I buy Sirius I'm buying Karmazin, he'll get the financing in some fashion and things will move forward. Second, The company is now a virtual Monopoly, Sirius XM will be in every car sold in 5 years. The potential for growth is enormous, how about 100 million subscribers, 12 billion annually, with a cost of doing business around 3 billion. Makes for some pretty decent share buybacks not to mention enormous profit. Buy the stock at 40 cents, stick it in a closet, and wait a little while.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 5:39 PM, UpsideHunter wrote:

    There is no reason to panic if the mgmt of the company just makes some really straightforward moves. First, cut out duplicative content, and share those channels, as suggested by others (60's, 70's, etc.). (BTW -- do NOT cut basketball, hockey, etc. as suggested by another reader. Satellite access to sports is a key differentiator of SR.)

    At the same time, cut all duplicative SG&A.

    Next, for the funding, do the refi thru a RIGHTS OFFERING to all current shareholders. There are currently 3.2B shares outstanding and $1.2B in debt. Give each shareholder either a right to BUY additional shares in order to retire the debt, or to lend SIRI the money at 6% interest, with warrants coverage (like the Buffett deal, only cheaper.)

    If Mel does another financing by diluting existing shareholders, without giving them a chance to participate, he should be replaced, IMO.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 8:10 PM, casteroil wrote:

    My slide began just after I purchased my load of shares way back whenever that dark day was... just before the announcement of HS. Since then,this stock has been on my back burner slowly simmering away. I am wondering who is making all the money I lost? A mear thank you would be in order... Or even a check in the mail for a bottle of fine wine. Unlikely though, it seems like for this company, the longer it ferments the taste of vinegar becomes morre of a prominent acquired taste. I am still holding on the toboggon still sliding down the mountain. When will the mountain end and put an end to my over sautéed stock...

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 11:29 PM, dannyrockett wrote:

    If they made an Iphone Application, and worked on the "in car" television idea more...the company could show massive growth....Content is king!

    Disc. 1000 shares at 2.00$

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 6:30 PM, mckayvo wrote:

    I think there are some nice suggestions on here and the 'mobile hot spot' comment should have real potential for up-sale if that band width is there.

    I do want to set a few comments made by "MOGRIFIER" straight.

    First, traditional radio isn't dead and, based on the new Arbitron electronic ratings system, listening is actually greater than previously thought. In my biased opinion, I think the lack of good, integrated aftermarket radios are the real block for Sirius XM growth

    As far as delivering emergency information:

    For the record, my spouse and her staff literally risked their personal safety to get to their radio station and transmitter site during hurricane Ike to keep live, local news and information to listeners here in Houston....and this is a top 40 station I'm talking about. Considering that ratings were suspended during the storm and aftermath, the only reason these people risked their lives was community responsibility. You aren't going to get that from people who don't live in your community.

    One thing you said is kind of funny though. You said, "during a hurricane, local radio goes home." That's sort of true. We were on vacation and my wife cut it short, flew through 3 Mexican airports, on to Atlanta, then Dallas, finally driving to Houston during a hurricane (at an enormous expense to us) so she could get home to go to work. This is not to say some groups don't do a poor job, but a little credit for those who work hard would be nice.

  • Report this Comment On October 23, 2008, at 2:47 PM, tguenth wrote:

    How about customizable stations? Give listeners the opportunity to create their own stations (i.e. Yahoo Launchcast) based on their music preferences. Users would be able to program their own station via the Sirius website, bringing more traffic to the site. Bandwidth may be an issue, but if you charge a premium for it, it will limit how many people take actually use the service. Make it available both over the air and online. $9.99 a month times the # of people who steam online while at work has got to be pretty significant...

  • Report this Comment On October 23, 2008, at 4:07 PM, tle99 wrote:

    I say lets have an internet-a-thon to raise money to retire the debt. I'll send in $100.00 if all the other shareholders do.

    We all cringed when Mel said he hoped that he didn't have to raise money from his own pocket, well as shareholders we own part of the company, so why not raise the money "internally" to retire the debt?

    With 3B outstanding shares surely there are plenty of us to pay off the debt, and our reward will be an increase in share price.

  • Report this Comment On October 23, 2008, at 7:52 PM, fatHead995 wrote:

    Its very simple !! First listeners dont want to hear advertisements they want to hear what they bought there raido to hear.So The stock price is at 21 cents right.Buy stock !!!! Lots of stock !!! Iam its not about showing a profit right now its about saving are Listening Pleasure.I own 5 raideo,s.on my account.Like a cell-phone i cant live with out it now.So lets own the company.Lets pump the money in through stock purchases.Everyone be in for 10 years.Dont take Profits an run !!! Remember your stock purchase is saveing your listening Pleasure with out Haveing to listen to 10 commericals and 1 song.

  • Report this Comment On October 23, 2008, at 8:00 PM, fatHead995 wrote:

    I forgot its time to also quite paying Holes like Howard an Opra such large sums of money !!! They already have plenty.If they want a to have there own Talk shows Let them Buy that time like nascar,Fans are what keep these People & Sports in Bussiness.

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