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Investors are a fickle bunch.

Over the last few months, they dragged down Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG) more than 60% on worries that hospitals wouldn't be buying as many of its surgical robots. And then, when the company announced yesterday what investors already knew, they sent it down some more.

I mean really, was the lowered guidance such a big shock to anyone?

This recession has taken no prisoners. It's knocked down the usual suspects that you'd expect to show weakness -- cruise operator Carnival (NYSE: CCL), gamer Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS), and LCD-TV-screen glass maker (among other things) Corning (NYSE: GLW). But even fellow health-care companies -- medical tester Laboratory Corporation of America (NYSE: LH) and surgical implant maker Stryker (NYSE: SYK) come immediately to mind -- have recently warned about not making previous guidance.

And yet, here Intuitive Surgical sits, trading for 24 times free cash flow, which doesn't seem at all unreasonable given that it's expecting revenue growth of 15% this year. Earnings and free cash flow will presumably see a more substantial growth as most of that increase in revenue is expected to come from sales of higher-margin accessories; sales of systems are expected to remain flat.

And keep in mind that management has a way of being conservative with its guidance. This time last year, management was guiding for a 40% increase in revenues for 2008, and it looks like it'll come in at 46% ... even after the poor fourth quarter.

Investors with long-term horizons will likely see this downturn as a small blip on the general upward trend of the four-time Rule Breakers recommendation. What else would you expect from a company that can expect a 15% increase in revenue during bad times and 40%-60% growth during good times?

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Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Fool owns shares of Stryker. LabCorp and Electronic Arts are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2009, at 3:44 PM, rmiers wrote:

    As fools gather to lick their wounds, the Bernie's of this world cackle in their back rooms counting their ever growing piles of money made on fear and failure.

    In this initiative they have used all of their tools, or weapons to keep microsurgery off the operating theaters. I have to admit they have done a pretty good job of it. After all, many do what they have been taught to do even if that might have been learned three decades ago. Many do not have money or the inquiring minds to seek the better mousetrap. And lastly, there is the "don't rock the boat crowd".

    As disappointing as this news is, the DaVinchi's scattered around the world, continue to cure, alleviate, and help mankind with his many diseases.

    And...I wonder....really wonder...what ISRG is going to do with their new 70,000 sq foot building purchased last quarter.

    I do hope Lonnie knows of the upcoming dollar devaluation and the bond collapse

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2009, at 4:05 PM, PauvrePapillon wrote:

    Hospital puts off building renovations to buy CyberKnife

    Margaret Sabin, chief executive officer at Penrose-St. Francis Health Centers, said, “We are buying a new CyberKnife program for the cancer center. We decided that that program directly benefited patients — it is state of the art technology. But to do it, we had to put off some building renovations. We decided to focus on health care and patient needs — the rest we’ll make do without.”

    http://www.csbj.com/story.cfm?ID=20667

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2009, at 7:08 PM, jjw120 wrote:

    The article in incorrect in regards to Corning. They do not make the screens for plasma tvs, they produce the glass for LCD screens.

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2009, at 8:53 PM, shortandlong wrote:

    agree with jjw120..

    Corning produces "high end" glass for LCDs, not plasmas. They are also in the process of producing sealants for the next generation OLED displays.

    This is why I never think most reporters, esp Motley fool ones are a bunch of idiots...they know nothing about technology...this is why we are in a crap hole now. MBAs running tech companies(and most companies), and reporters predicting from a 8 ball

  • Report this Comment On January 10, 2009, at 3:32 PM, wolfhounds wrote:

    Hospitals are in the business of attracting good doctors, especially surgeons, to bring in high end customers. Just as any other business, if they fall behind they get left behind. I only have to look at two hospitals in my area that in the past several years have totally reinvented themselves to attract cancer and other surgery intensive patients.

    I agree with the author's premise that ISRG robots will stay in high demand. They continue to expand the scope of operations performed in a highly cost effective manner with far fewer post surgery complications.

  • Report this Comment On January 12, 2009, at 4:24 PM, TMFKitKat wrote:

    When a company like Stryker or Hill-Rom warns that sales for capex items such as beds and hospital room furniture are going to be down because hospitals are being squeezed mercilessly between the uninsured and bad debt expense, how likely is it they are going to be able to afford a $1.25 million to $1.5 million robot?

    The robot is cited as a way to cut costs through shorter hospital stays, but even so it may not be an entirely cost effective method in recessionary environments as hospitals struggle to buy the basics. They can probably scrape by another year or two without a DaVinci, but patients need beds

    Cost-adjusted surgical robotic performance: The plea for a cheaper robot .

    Journal of Surgical Research , Volume 121 , Issue 2 , Page 293

    E . Hanly , S . Bachman , J . Zand , M . Marohn , M . Talamini

    Abstract

    Despite their high cost, surgical robotic systems continue to gain prominence in the operating room. In this study, the initial performance of a diverse population of surgeons and surgical residents with no previous surgical robotics experience was characterized. The objectives of this study were (1) To compare the initial performance of different surgical robotic systems; (2) To determine the inter-robot transferability of skills acquired on a surgical robot; and (3) To determine if differences exist in the initial robotic surgery learning curve among surgeons of varying levels of surgical experience. A multi-institutional group of 38 surgeons and 28 surgeons-in-training were evaluated using three surgical skill tests: “paper cut,” “ring swap,” and “thread the needle.” Every participant was timed on each of two robots, Intuitive Surgical’s daVinci Surgical System and endoVia’s Laprotek System. The order in which the subjects were tested on each of the two robots was determined at random. Composite scores representing participant performance on each of the two robots and overall performance were calculated. The “paper cut” test took participants twice as long and the “ring swap” test took over three times as long on the Laprotek robot compared to the daVinci robot (P < 0.0001 for both). However, when adjusted for robot cost ($1.25M for daVinci and $250K for Laprotek), scores were significantly better on the Laprotek robot for both tests (P < 0.0001 for both). Participant times were significantly faster on each of the two robots among participants who had used the other robot first (P < 0.05 for daVinci and P < 0.01 for Laprotek). A trend toward better overall performance on both robots was found among inexperienced surgeons compared to more experienced surgeons. Among surgeons with little or no previous surgical robotic experience, basic surgical tasks are easier to perform using the daVinci robot than using the Laprotek robot. However, daVinci’s relative ease of use may not justify its 5-fold greater cost. Basic surgical robotic skills acquired on one robot are transferable to use on a second robot. Less experienced “younger” surgeons may acquire basic surgical robotic skills faster than their more experienced “older” colleagues.

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