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Where Would Sirius XM Be Without Howard Stern?

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Maybe Howard Stern really is the king of all media.

This morning's New York Daily News offers up what most Stern fans have known for years. "Howard Stern has proven irreplaceable on radio," it begins, chronicling the terrestrial-radio destruction left in the wake of Stern's departure from the FM airwaves at the end of 2005. The flagship Stern station went through several uninspiring replacements before finally converting to a music format.

This has naturally blessed Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) . Stern’s arrival at Sirius in 2006 triggered a shift in power. Sirius was much smaller than XM at the time, but Stern's arrival found Sirius closing the gap with every passing quarter. Few will argue with what I'm about to say next: If Stern had gone to XM instead of Sirius, we would be talking about XM buying Sirius -- and not the other way around -- for a much kinder exchange ratio right now.

So why do some people question the merit of signing Stern to a five-year deal worth $500 million? Yes, it's a lot, but he has certainly earned it. You can't blame him for the company's weak financials and cumbersome debt. He was brought in to ramp up subscriptions, and he certainly did that.

The New York Daily News article offers up a history lesson, but it's also one that Sirius XM will have to bone up on soon. Stern's contract concludes at the end of next year.

How much will it take to retain Stern's services? Will it be more or less than $100 million annually?

Let's look at both sides of the argument. One can argue that Sirius XM has a few aces in its hand to drive down that price, even as Sirius XM has grown to a whopping 19 million subscribers.

  • Terrestrial-radio heavies like Clear Channel and CBS (NYSE: CBS  ) are weaker now than they were a year ago.
  • Sirius merging with XM means that the two satellite-radio services won't be bidding against one another.

The flipside to the argument is that Stern may have more options than the obvious.

  • The evolution of Web radio and the multitude of portable gadgets that will hit the market in the coming years make it quite feasible that Stern could break out with his own subscription product.
  • More to the point, instead of competing with terrestrial radio, the real battle may be with digital delivery powerhouses like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) , Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) , or possibly even Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) .
  • We may never know how many of Sirius XM's subscribers came over only to follow Stern, but just knowing that they may follow him off satellite radio can be troublesome to Sirius XM's subscriber base growth.

It's hard to say who has the upper hand here, though one would think that Stern has the edge. If he decides to stay with Sirius XM, he may even opt to keep the renewal short, to give the market changes a little more time to evolve to the point where he can make more money elsewhere.

Either way, while it seems that most of the non-sports talent acquired by Sirius and XM over the years is truly replaceable -- and that includes Oprah Winfrey, as retail subscriptions have trickled consistently lower since her arrival -- Stern is the most important person at Sirius XM.

Sorry, Mel Karmazin. Even you know it has to be true.

More news than static on Sirius XM:

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What do you think Howard Stern will do? Will he be making more or less in 2011? What will that mean for investors? Please share your thoughts in the comments field below.

Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Google is a Rule Breakers selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz subscribes to both XM and Sirius. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 2:08 PM, Cool700 wrote:

    Howard has hinted at retiring! You did not mention that. I think he will get 100 million and the ability to show when he wants to.

    Howard has already stated many times, he does not want to go back to terrestrial radio.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 2:12 PM, daveshouston wrote:

    I can't imagine that Howard Stern would have any effect on Sirius other than driving away listeners. I know I personally decided not to sign up with Sirius because of the presence of Stern. He's one of the most obnoxious people in the public limelight along with Michael Moore and Barney Frank

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 2:46 PM, jlanan wrote:

    Stern conservatively brought over 5-6 million LOYAL listeners. At 10 bucks a month, that's somewhere between $480MM- $600MM in revenue to Sirius per year..Plus he knocked out XM. Yes he makes a lot of money, but he clearly deserves it from a pure business perspective. It's about time he gets credit for a job well done for over 25 years....

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 2:57 PM, TheREALFuriousD wrote:

    Howard Stern is not the only non-replaceable talent at Sirius. Jason Ellis is the Future, Red Dragons!

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 2:59 PM, PokerRon wrote:

    It's very easy to find out how valuable Stern is to Sirius - conduct an email survey. I think he's over-rated. I never listen to him and I don't know anyone who does. And Karmazin has the upper hand - Stern couldn't do his "thing' on any other network. Personally I'd rather Sirius replace Stern with Don Imus.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 3:07 PM, myopinioncounts wrote:

    Angelico, it's NOT $500 Million PER YEAR. It's $100 million per year for 5 years. And he's earned every penny of it. Sirius went from 600,000 subscribers when he signed to over 4 MILLION by his first year. Call that a coincidence. And I'm sorry, but he's not as obnoxious as all of the people with sticks up their butts think. He's had celebrities, famous sports players, and even Senators on his show to be interviewed. Sure he has porn stars and strippers on occasion, but listening is not the same as seeing. So if you really despise the beauty of the human body that much, then it's a good thing you're not listening. I believe he will sign for another contract because of his love for Satellite radio. The freedom from the FCC is enough to keep him there. To know that people are paying to listen to you is also another winning point. He'll stay and SiriusXM will prosper.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 3:13 PM, shibum wrote:

    I am not a Stern fan or listener, but the people that say that Howard Stern is obnoxious and they do not know anybody that listens to him and he is not worth $100mil a year are either crazy or ignorant. It doesn't matter if you agree or not with Stern or like him as a person, he has a very loyal fan base of MILLIONS that are willing to pay just to listen to his show. If Sirius/XM were not to re-sign him, it is very conceivable that they would lose 25% (4-5 million) of their subscribers, IMMEDIATELY.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 3:20 PM, sinkorswim28 wrote:

    First, daveshouston - your comment is naive and nonsensical, no one (except for you) can dispute that Howard brought millions of listeners to sirius; therefore, you are a $hithead

    Second, angelico - you instantly discredit yourself, Stern only makes $100 million a year and has a five year contract. And he does deserve because he brought the subscribers to pay for it; therefore, you are a $hithead.

    Third, PokerRon, you are forgetting that Stern holds the trump card, retirement. He doesn't need to negotiate he has all the money he needs, he can just travel to Mexico and never leave the resort for fear of being kidnapped; therefore, you are a $hithead.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 3:49 PM, wescoast001 wrote:

    Oh please! Howard couldn't get enough Sirius suscribers to surpass XM before the merger. In terms of talk, Opie & Anthony have more - and more loyal - listeners. The "masses" of Stern's followers didn't follow him to Sirius to begin with. Do your research and don't buy into the hype. Important? Yes. All important? No.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 4:03 PM, VoodooLoons wrote:

    > Howard couldn't get enough Sirius suscribers to surpass XM before the merger.

    That wasn't the deal. The deal was that he would bring a certain number of subscribers, and he greatly surpassed that number. So he delivered on his end of the deal, and then some.

    Of course Sirius needed Howard, much like the Bulls need Michael Jordan. But now XM is no longer a threat, and the question is whether they need Stern to survive. IMO, if they succeed at driving out their redundancy costs and continue to improve their content (and this means staying away from the stale FM formats on the music side, too), they eventually will be fine w/out him.

    I think the quality music programming is a piece that doesn't get talked about enough. The talk and sports are fine and have their audiences, but the state of FM radio is crap, and as long as they maintain a corner on eclectic and wide music selection they'll offer something that terrestrial radio doesn't, and that you can't get with an mp3 player stuffed with all the music you already own.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 6:19 PM, OutofFavor wrote:

    I subscribe to Sirius because of Howard. When he leaves, I will too. They have done a lousy job trying to develop new talent for the day when he retires or can no longer perform due to injury, illness, death, etc.

    The dingdong who said that his listeners didn't follow him is ridiculous. I actually tried going 2 weeks with terrestrial and it was so mind numbingly horrible I had to pony up the cash for a subscription. With 2 hours of commuting time every day, I consider this a better product than cable television.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 8:16 PM, Orangeman27 wrote:

    Outof Favor- I agree with your rationale though I am not a big Stern fan. He definitely has his loyal fan base.

    BUT- Sirius paying $500 million for him for 5 years when they were already faced with huge debt due to the high cost of their satellite delivery system- they raised the cost of all satellite radio talent and, in the process, screwed themselves.Royally! Well done, Mel!

    They basically forced up the price they had to pay to acquire XM because of the high cost XM paid for Oprah, et. all.

    Complete stupidity to- essentially- force up the price of the entity you needed to acquire to survive. Especially when your debt load is already off the charts! (Paying $15 million for Mad Dog Russo? Hello?!)

    I have been an XM subscriber for several years- because I didn't want to get Sirius because I figured if they were stupid enough to overpay for Howard Stern they would put themselves out of business.

    I was almost right.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 9:02 PM, dgmennie wrote:

    Commercial radio programming today is dominated by corporate conglomerates who use computers to decide what/who gets on the air. The names that pop up among the posts here (Stern, Clear Channel, Sirius, XM) are just as few of the better-known villains in this cabal.

    What's needed is not more technology and more spreadsheets, but more diversified ownership of the media. More strange and somewhat crazy people owning stations and getting their soul-mates on the air. But most of all the opportunity for many more people to participate hands-on at hundreds of small stations.

    No more network-syndicated programming that makes radio in Texas sound like radio in Vermont or California or New York. No more deejays that spin one or two songs they never identify yet having plenty of time to rant about TV shows, movie star gossip, or conduct phone scams. And this is just the tip of the iceberg regading what I find obnoxious about MUSIC radio programming.

    Talk radio is such a collection of offensive nonsense there is almost nowhere to begin a discussion. But essentially why are people who know absolutely nothing allowed hours of airtime every day to tell everyone (over and over again) that they left their brains at the dry cleaners in 1970 and never went back to pick them up?

    PS: I did engineering work at some of the biggest radio stations in NYC during the 1970s and saw it all firsthand.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 9:16 PM, kiddego wrote:

    BUT- Sirius paying $500 million for him for 5 years when they were already faced with huge debt due to the high cost of their satellite delivery system- they raised the cost of all satellite radio talent and, in the process, screwed themselves.Royally! Well done, Mel!

    Hey Orangeman 27,

    Just so you can check your facts. Mel Karmazin did not sign Howard Stern to his Sirius contract. Karmazin actually came to the company after Stern was signed.

  • Report this Comment On March 26, 2009, at 9:59 PM, ds10 wrote:

    daveshouston,

    You omitted The Crown Prince Of Obnoxious:

    Rush Limbaugh.

    What a great pair for Sirius: Limbaugh & Limbaugh

    (there's enough of him for two!)

    Now that would spell doom for Sirius.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 9:49 AM, seanvanv wrote:

    I have 4 accounts with Sirius strictly for Stern. I know many people who have the service that would cancel when stern leaves.

    Perhaps Sirius can get Stern staffers to run a show when stern leaves kind of like the wrap up show - I would give it a chance at least. The sports are great but not sure I would keep the accounts just for them when I can get the locals on free radio.

    Let's hope he stays - I love the show. Can't imagine driving around without it. Tried for a while and was miserable.

    Ba ba booey to you all!

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 9:50 AM, PTURBED wrote:

    The Stern sheep bleep out the master lies...

    Stern is the reason real investors stay from this stock. His payday is a BIG reason the company is so in debt, Stern knows this and spends much time putting up a smoke screen and commenting on Oprah's pay. Sterns pump of the stock with his listeners is the slimiest thing I have ever seen. many are stuck with paper that will never be worth what the paid on his advice.

    Research the stock price starting with the day Stern opened his Mic on Sirius and you have the real story. the stock started a slide that very day.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 9:53 AM, xandrosnj wrote:

    Oh PLEASE!!! Howard is not responsible for EVERY SINGLE subscriber for Sirius after he signed. The 5 - 6 million number is preposterous. If he was even responsible for 25% that would be unbelievable. I personally NEVER listen to him but am a longtime Sirius subscriber. He is way overpaid and will not be missed if he retires.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 10:36 AM, TheMerovingian wrote:

    The name Howard Stern generates debates and that in turn generates media interest. It's plain and simple, hate him or love him he generates interest.

    Oh and just for the record Howard does not get paid $100mil a year, Sirius provided Howard a budget of $500 million to pay Howard, his staff and general production costs

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 1:49 PM, profproof wrote:

    Howard Stern is absolutely NOT replacable. The annecdotes of a few commenters that don't listen to Stern do not discount the numbers. He had a huge audience in terrestrial radio and he brought 5 million to Sirius with him. Nobody else has done that so that makes him irreplacable.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 1:53 PM, profproof wrote:

    Look what they paid Oprah and she puts nothing into her show. If she converted a few million housewives into subscribers I wouldn't care what they paid her but she brings nothing. No entertainer has brought more subscribers than Stern so as an investor I love him.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2009, at 11:20 PM, panzer55 wrote:

    NO ONE is irreplacible...especially Mr. Stern. Why not allow SIRI's shareholders to decide on Stern's value to SIRI? Or better allow each debt interest holder in SIRI to decide on Stern's worth on a yearly basis,making renewal options conditioned upon Stern's effect on SIRI's financial performance.

  • Report this Comment On March 28, 2009, at 1:30 AM, wtfdidyousay wrote:

    if he isn't irreplaceable, who can replace him? who else out there could get 5 mil plus subs to switch over?

  • Report this Comment On March 29, 2009, at 5:21 AM, thadschiele wrote:

    You really are an idiot. You have no finger on the pulse of radio right now. You don't mention that the culture has completely changed, not a result of Stern leaving, but the cause. There was a time when interesting pesronality driven radio was grabbing the listener. Now, the personalities are so restricted, there isn't room for interesting, and unique radio. The Imus firing, as well as other personalities in the industry, was the true death of radio. I'm not going to sit an listen to watered down entertainment. I'm not going to listen to bubble gum pop music, and I'm not going to listen to milk toast radio personalities. Stern is an important show on Sirius, but so is Ellis, and so are Opie and Anthony. Listeners are moving to satelite for interesting radio they can't find on regular radio, not because the pesonalities on regular radio can't do the job, but because their hands are tied on that format.

  • Report this Comment On December 21, 2009, at 5:57 PM, dogatonic wrote:

    Here’s the real truth:

    Howard Stern will do what’s best for Howard Stern. He has two likely scenarios:

    1) Resign with Sirius – He has huge motivation for doing so, he owns a large amount of stock. Even if he resigns for $0 a year, this could drive the stock price back up and earn him millions of dollars.

    2) Start his own company. This is not even cutting edge technology. Streaming apps for iPhone, BlackBerry and the internet are available for a dime a dozen. A meager 1,000,000 subscribers paying $5 a month would generate $60 million annually, and that’s the weak number. 10,000,000 subscribers at $9/mo is not a stretch of the imagination, that’s $1billion annually.

    3) A group of investors will guarentee Stern $100 million a year, just for the oppurtunity to be a part of option #2 above.

    My prediction? Sign with Sirius for one year at a time until the stock is higher and internet technology is even better. Then he will leave and strike gold on the internet.

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