5 Stocks That Just Won't Quit

In my weekly Fool column "Get Ready for the Fall," I run Nasdaq.com's 52-week highs list through the "wisdom of crowds" meter we call Motley Fool CAPS. The result: a list of stocks that have flown so high, investors are starting to get nervous about that whole "gravity" thing. But while many stocks will indeed plunge back to Earth, some seem immune to gravity, steadily riding a rising megatrend to ever-greater heights.

Today, we'll move beyond stocks that have hit 52-week highs, and identify companies now surpassing five solid years of outperformance. Which of these will thrash the market averages for another half-decade? Here are this week's leading contenders:

Companies are selected from the "New 5-Year Lows" list published on MSN Money on Thursday. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS. Bull factor is percentage of outperform calls in CAPS.

"Everybody loves a winner"
Not necessarily. In fact, Fools seem to be getting just a wee bit antsy over the kinds of stocks that are benefiting from this recent rally ... and the prices we're being asked to pay for them. Full-scale panic hasn't yet set in (yet). Still, only two of the five 52-week high-hitters listed above receive above-average ratings on CAPS: NetEase.com and Origin Agritech. Both, interestingly, hail not from our own hallowed shores, but from than Xanadu of eternal investor optimism: China.

But which of the two shall we profile today? Well, seeing as NetEase is already a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation, and that anyone who's of a mind to can learn all about it with just a click o' the mouse, I think we'll use this column to explore the smaller company today. Without further ado, let's dig into ...

The bull case for Origin Agritech
SEED has been lacking in the TLC department lately. Fact is, not a Fool has raised a peep about the stock since last summer -- but back then, Origin was all the rage. CAPS member LEGMAKER introduced us to the stock as a producer of "numerous corn, rice and canola hybrids. They were the first private seed company in China, which makes them well placed long term as it is seen that the companies that first get started in China have a strangle hold on the market."

CrazyCal17 praised the company for its "great leadership with the ability to think outside the box. With the possibility of some future acquisitions this has all the ingredients for wonderful success, short term and long term both." And jcp777 tapped the company for having "just got the corn hybrid seed approved."

As its name suggests, though, this company is growing off of an exceedingly small base. On the one hand, that's good -- because growth prospects are greatest when a stock is still small.

On the other hand, Origin faces significant competition from profitable seed companies such as Switzerland's Syngenta (NYSE:SYT) and our very own Monsanto (NYSE:MON). Meanwhile, Origin is still at the money-losing stage (at least, under GAAP). In its last fiscal year, Origin Agritech reported a $6.3 million loss. This year, no one's quite sure what will happen -- but the fact that management laid out its expectations for the year's revenue and cash flow last week, and said not a word about "profit," seems to imply there won't be any.

On the third hand, Origin did generate profit where it really counts -- cash money. Free cash flow came to $5.5 million last year. If management delivers on its promise to lower operating costs, and delivers "RMB 550 million to RMB 580 million [in revenue and]... operating cash flow ... around RMB 80 million, both improvements over fiscal year 2008," then I'd expect to see free cash flow surge this year as well. Management's predictions would result in gains in revenue of 7% to 13% and in operating cash flow of about 40%.

Foolish takeaway
To me, Origin Agritech looks to have quite a bit of potential -- and a price that's more than reasonable in light of this potential. Whether it will deliver is the question.

And what's the answer? You tell me. Click on over to Motley Fool CAPS and tell us how you think the company will fare over the years to come.

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