To some extent, it's a race to the bottom in the solar industry. In an effort to be competitive with traditional energy sources and attract customers, solar cell manufacturers are forced to continually shave their prices. And that's not to mention the ongoing recession.
Of course it's thin-film specialist First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR ) that's been leading the way with price cuts, even as competitors like Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ) and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE ) try to play catch-up. As a budding technology that is far from widespread adoption, solar has a long way to go before any winners are crowned, but so far First Solar has kept near the head of the pack.
More than 3,500 members of The Motley Fool's CAPS community have weighed in with their thoughts on First Solar, though, and the ratings haven't been terribly encouraging. The stock has been stuck at a lackluster two-star rating for the past two years. It's worth mentioning that much of the pessimism revolves around valuation, not technology.
Two-star rating or not, quite a few CAPS members have found ways to score big points on this stock. ironyworks, the current score leader on First Solar, has notched an amazing 902 points on one call on First Solar. This player made an outperform call back in January 2007, held on for the near-1,000% rise, and then jumped off in May of last year.
ironyworks is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed a stock-picking accuracy of 60% while racking up nearly 1,100 points. First Solar isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:
|
Company
|
Date Picked
|
Date Ended
|
Call
|
Points
|
CAPS Rating
(out of five)
|
|
Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG )
|
May 10, 2007
|
Still Open
|
Outperform
|
107
|
****
|
|
Medarex (Nasdaq: MEDX )
|
March 5, 2007
|
Still Open
|
Outperform
|
61
|
***
|
|
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
|
May 23, 2007
|
Still Open
|
Outperform
|
42
|
****
|
Data from CAPS.
So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:
|
Company
|
Date Picked
|
Call
|
CAPS Rating
(out of five)
|
|
Mindray Medical (NYSE: MR )
|
June 12, 2009
|
Outperform
|
*****
|
|
WuXi PharmaTech
|
Jan. 2, 2009
|
Outperform
|
****
|
|
China Medical Technologies (Nasdaq: CMED )
|
Jan. 2, 2009
|
Outperform
|
*****
|
Data from CAPS.
While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start further research. I decided to take a closer look at Motley Fool Rule Breakers favorite Mindray Medical.
Bringing the heat
Hot stock Mindray Medical has a pretty mean triple threat working in its favor. First of all, it's in the health-care sector. The medical-device maker's stock could float on the rising tide with the rest of the market, or use the defensive nature of the sector to wade against a correction if this does prove to be a sucker's rally.
Next, the company is based in China, which has been in the spotlight for its potential to produce big returns in the years to come. And finally, Mindray has been delivering absolutely scorching growth, with an average annual revenue growth rate of 51% for the three years ending in 2008.
If there's a major drawback in the picture, it's that the market hasn't totally overlooked Mindray. The stock currently trades at more than 30 times its trailing earnings and 27 times its estimated 2009 earnings -- both well above the multiples of the rest of the market.
CAPS members weigh in
High multiple or not, the CAPS community has been very positive on Mindray's stock. Of the 1,578 CAPS members who have weighed in on the stock, 1,557 have given it a thumbs-up.
CAPS All-Star GorillaGorilla added a thumbs-up back in November, saying:
They make basic medical equipment - heart monitors and the like at a price point that no other manufacture can match - typically half. R&D and manufacturing are all in China - no one can match the margins.
China health market should increase at 50% per annum for the next 5 years and the international market is barely penetrated.
But here's the important question: What's your take? Will Mindray Medical's triple threat continue to deliver for investors? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. It's absolutely free and already has more than 135,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.
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