Is Sirius XM Growing or Shrinking?

We're now less than a week away from the end of the third quarter, and one of the market's bigger mysteries is whether Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) is growing again.

The company shed net subscribers in each of this year's first two quarters -- going from 19 million to 18.4 million through the six months -- but there are still reasons to be optimistic.

Auto sales spiked during the "cash for clunkers" rebates promotion. The economy is showing signs of bottoming out. There are a growing number of ways to experience satellite radio, including a streaming feed via Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) iPhone.

There are headwinds colliding with these tailwinds, though. August was a huge month for carmakers, but September is shaping up to be a real dud. The "cash for clunkers" crowd is also a bit dubious, since it consists of drivers of older cars with minimal trade-in value. Paying a premium for radio won't be an easy sell. On the early adopter end, Apple, Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM  ) , and Palm (Nasdaq: PALM  ) tacked on millions of new smartphone owners during the quarter, giving more consumers access to free Internet radio on the go.

Churn is also likely to spike, after the company began charging subscribers as much as $2 a month in July to offset music royalties. The last time that Sirius XM inched rates higher was back in March, when it began charging more for secondary accounts and initiated online streaming charges. This likely contributed to the 3.3 million subscribers who have deactivated their receivers through the first six months of the year.

I think the negatives outweigh the positives when it comes to subscriber counts, though the rate hikes and cost savings should deliver better top- and bottom-line results than analysts expect. Wall Street expects Sirius XM to post a loss of $0.02 a share on a 1% year-over-year decline in revenue. I believe that Sirius XM will manage to marginally grow revenue, even as it sheds roughly 80,000 net subscribers sequentially.

So where do you think Sirius XM will stand by the end of the third quarter?

  • Sirius XM posted a net subscriber loss of 404,422 in Q1.
  • There were 185,999 fewer subscribers by the end of Q2.

Since Sirius XM began the quarter with 18,413,435 subscribers, my prediction calls for 18,333,435 by next week's close of the third quarter.

Don't like my 18,333,435 call? Give it a shot in the comment box below. When Sirius XM ultimately reports its results, I'll make sure I send published props to the reader who came the closest.

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (83) | Recommend This Article (29)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 12:30 PM, joefromtexas wrote:

    18,194,013

    I think the larger numbers that deactivated during the 3rd quarter will be larger than expected and overshadow any marginal gain from the cash for clunkers headache.

    JoefromTexas

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 12:44 PM, nayeemfm wrote:

    18,550,200

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 12:46 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    Who can trust SIRI reporting? Mel lies as much as Obumbum.

    The only thing trading SIRI in the past 5 days is the flash trading computers at Goldman Sachs. They are propping the price for the big rev-split.

    Who trades 3 shares back and forth all day for a .0001 cent gain? Data from Wed shows 12 million trades under ten shares. What is that???

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 12:57 PM, holtbw wrote:

    18,443,373

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:05 PM, Fool wrote:

    I will allow my subscription to expire without renewal.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:06 PM, dedmunds wrote:

    The cash for clunkers, the new satellite launch, all the new subscribers that are being brought on board. SIRI is sure a winner soon. All the ones who hang on will be rewarded handsom!! To bad all the bashers will be left out!! SIRI is growing and will be beyond the 1:00 mark soon and climbing!!!

    LONG SIRI!!!

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:07 PM, Terryoutofit wrote:

    18,487,784

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:14 PM, RAF22 wrote:

    For accurate and unbiased information regarding Sirius XM and SIRI go to Satwaves.com and Seeking Alpha. These two sites provide the best background information available for investors to review and evaluate.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:16 PM, aevans1998 wrote:

    18,543,336 Skydoc, i-phone. Cash for clunkers is irrelevant thisa qtr. First 3 months are free.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:18 PM, JimboUSMC17 wrote:

    18,327,891. But I hope I am too low. For some reason, this is what I got.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:19 PM, cycle63 wrote:

    18,490,000

    I think there will be a net increase over the 2nd quarter, not by much, but enough to raise some eyebrows. I would be more happy with a even per share price or eek out a .01 share profit.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:22 PM, RAF22 wrote:

    I note the article above this one, speculating about a possible reverse split, is totally inaccurate. Sirius XM will have from 6 to 12 months (most realistically up to 12 months) beyond September 14, 2009 (date of the non - compliance letter) to correct the issue of the stock trading below 1.00. Probability strongly suggests that SIRI will be trading well above 1.00 long before any action would be required.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:34 PM, thejuice31 wrote:

    self pay +60,000

    promotional +20,000

    Total Subscribers 09/30/2009 - 18,493,435

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:38 PM, DrilSgtBlade wrote:

    I am surprised more people don't buy this product. Commercials on the tv and radio suck. It takes me 30 min to get home from work. If I listen to local radio 15-20 minutes of radio time is talking BullSH*T and commercials.. WERE IS THE MUSIC. I'll tell you. SIRIUS that's were. I can get ti anywhere anytime. it is worth every penny. If I want to listen to people talk crap and listen to nonsense commericals I'll call 1-800 EX WIFE. yup, I love it, but i do think the numbers will drop..

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:49 PM, dedmunds wrote:

    self pay +82,000

    promotional +22,000

    Total Subscribers 09/30/2009 - 19,862,356

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 1:56 PM, overbubba wrote:

    Stern has 20 minutes an hour of breaks. I had 4 subs and after my 2 that are prepaid for the year I will have NONE. I listen to pod cast and slacker. Way better product and I can be almost anywhere and get reception!

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 2:28 PM, karaokejb wrote:

    19,114,095

    +700K from 2Q numbers

    iPhone, & Auto Sales at 14M SAAR for month of Aug is hard to ignore.

    At very least 19m

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 2:38 PM, ThongLover wrote:

    So...from 19 million to 18.4 over six months during the end of one of the worst economical downturns in the history of the planet? Let's see...that's about a 3% decrease...wow...that's an enormous loss of subscribers!! Kidding, of course. Considering what this country has been through, for Sirius to shed only 3% off their total subscriber base is truly amazing and impressive.

    Here is my take...as I drove from Tulsa home to Kansas City yesterday, i enjoyed ESPN Radio, CNN, CNBC, Octane, Lithium, Howard, The Virus and several other stations. I thought as I drove...what in the hell would i do without Sirius?!?

    I have an iPhone...love it...love the music i play from it at home and on the road. But there are ZERO options out there as good as Sirius for true live content and choice. Just having CNN/CNBC/HLN/ESPN on the road is amazing. I can go from music to live news broadcasts seamlessly.

    I hear of folks letting their subs run out...speaking of Pandora and other services. I don't know these services well, but i can't imagine baulking at a $20/month fee when you get all the content and choices that SIRI provides.

    Yesterday, some estimates of next year's auto sales numbers ranged from 12 million on the low end to 14.5 on the high end. Now remember that even with the 50% saturation in new autos and 50% retention, that gives Sirius somewhere around 3 million new subs next year. However, many of the new cars purchased will be by folks that already have Sirius, meaning their subs will be a wash. I would estimate roughly 1.5-2 million new car adds next year. I won't get into churn and retail adds and iPhone/internet income.

    My take is profit is here to stay and each addtional 2 million subs from here on out will equal $250 million in profit each year. The way i see it, Sirius is here, they have the best new Satellite in the sky, the best music on the planet and they will just continue to grow. They are going nowhere but upward and onward, and the stock price will slowly but surely continue to rise. Shorts are blind and dreaming, longs are patient and prepared. The future has promise of additional gadgets, tv, internet, international expansion and many other possibilities that we haven't even considered yet.

    This stock is poised to change some investor's lives. This stock will go nowhere but up with our without a split. Sirius has made it through the storm and will continue to invent itself and grow.

    New Sub# - 18,642,344

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 2:52 PM, Dgib1956 wrote:

    18563433

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 3:33 PM, MotleyBashesSiri wrote:

    Why does Motley Fools mention Sirius/XM (siri) in almost every article they write? Motley Fools has spun topics that have no relation whatsoever to siri into veiled bashes of siri. Give me whiplash.

    "....so yes the Chinese/U.S. trade imbalance is a concern long term, but it's not as imbalanced as Sirius/XM"

    ".........President Obama spoke today at the UN Security Council. I bet Sirius/XM felt like they had some security.....

    Either Motley Fools is shorting Sirius/XM or they are the pawn of someone who is shorting Sirius/XM or they are just trying to increase readership by catering to the massize amount of shareholders of Sirius/XM, which in itself is a conundrum because you are trying to get readers by bashing a stock held by a pool of people that are for the most part long the stock.

    You have really taken down any credibility you may have had in the market place and the more you do it the worse it gets. You might not feel it yet, but you will. What goes around comes around and when it comes around it's not going to be pretty Fools.

    Sirius/XM will report subscribers at 18,482,111 for the period ending Sept 1, 2009. A positive gain of roughly 70k subs.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:14 PM, BananaHeads wrote:

    Satellite radio is the future. There is no way I could go back to terrestrial radio. It's awful compared to satellite.

    This will all be moot in a few years when Sirius is trading at $10 a share.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:15 PM, tpron wrote:

    Motley Fool, why do you bash this stock on a daily basis? All the company's in the Dow and Nasdaq & all you do is focus on Siri, ignoring all positive news and picking up on the slightest negative tidbit you can find on Sirius. Could you have a motive????

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:21 PM, BananaHeads wrote:

    "If I want to listen to people talk crap and listen to nonsense commericals I'll call 1-800 EX WIFE...."

    ===================

    I haven't laughed out loud all day until now. Good one.

    Satellite radio is the future. There is no way I could go back to terrestrial radio. It doesn't hurt that I got in on day one with a lifetime sub.

    My wife doesn't have Sirius. Terrestrial radio sucks so bad when we're just going out for dinner in her car, I put my radio in there. 20 minutes of commercials for 10 minutes of show is very yesterday.

    Satellite radio will dominate in the near future. Just like cell phones, cable TV and high speed internet. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

    This will all be moot in a few years when Sirius is trading at $10 a share.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:34 PM, John1234321 wrote:

    I'll bid $1, Bob.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:41 PM, CHUCKWAS wrote:

    18,573,227 SUBSCRIBERS, AND I KNOW BECAUSE I BOUGHT A NEW CAR AND I LOVE SIRIUS RADIO! I'M 61 AND LOVE UNINTERRUPTED MUSIC OF MY CHOICE!

    THANKS

    CHUCKWAS

    P.S. THE DETROIT TIGERS WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR!

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:48 PM, siriuslee wrote:

    Seems to me that the fools are getting just a little more optimistic lately. They still are lame but my guess is 186494321

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 4:56 PM, plange01 wrote:

    sirius is bankrupt and living off cash infushions from a large investor.sirius is a great idea but it will never make money and making foolish deals like overpaying stern didnt help...

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:18 PM, chucksowers wrote:

    The recession is still very strong. Folks have to cut back on household expences.

    I think we'll have 17,965,000 subscribers.

    I own a lot of this stock. I think SIRI is a long term winner.

    I think we'll have positive earnings also. It may be only a penny, but that is a lot better than nothing.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:25 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    Rick Aristotle Munarriz's brain Growing or Shrinking?

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:27 PM, sharkbrains wrote:

    Subscribers are counted differently for Sirius and XM. Sirius counts it as soon as the car is parked on the car lot - XM counts it when its sold. Remember that in response to cas for clunkers auto makers had to vamp up previously cut production. My guess: 19.2 million.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:28 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    "I am surprised more people don't buy this product. Commercials on the tv and radio suck. It takes me 30 min to get home from work. If I listen to local radio 15-20 minutes of radio time is talking BullSH*T and commercials.. WERE IS THE MUSIC. I'll tell you. SIRIUS that's were. I can get ti anywhere anytime. it is worth every penny. If I want to listen to people talk crap and listen to nonsense commericals I'll call 1-800 EX WIFE. yup, I love it, but i do think the numbers will drop.."

    There is this device called an iPod. For about $20, you can hook these devices through the Aux connection of your in-dash stereo system. By doing this, you can listen to your iPod anywhere in the world with 0 commercials and with 0 monthly fees. I heard this company Apple has created several variations of this device and is pretty successful. You should look into it.

    :)

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:31 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    "Satellite radio is the future. There is no way I could go back to terrestrial radio. It's awful compared to satellite.

    This will all be moot in a few years when Sirius is trading at $10 a share."

    Since the ratio of poor to rich in this country is growing and this means there are far more people with less money than 10 years ago for you home gamers (I love Cramer lol), I doubt SIRI will be around for much longer. Poor people who are already struggling to pay the bills they have aren't going to pay $10 or whatever it is for SIRI radio when they can listen to their own radio for free for life.

    Sorry but the miseducation of SIRI "Stock Holders" is flawed.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:45 PM, cantbefoolish wrote:

    Come on down John 1234321.... you're the next contestant on The Fool is Wrong.

    plange 01, why do you still think Sirius XM is living on cash from large investors, when subs pay over $600 mil. every quarter? And how can you say Stern is overpaid? Shall I remind you, when he joined Sirius, they were way behind XM in subs. Then what happened? Who got bought? If you want to say that Oprah, Martha, and Mad Dog are overpaid, I'd agree, but Howard deserves what he gets.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:55 PM, goforitrandy wrote:

    It doesn't matter if SIRIUS XM IS growing or shrinking today.

    What Matters is This...

    What direction is SIRI going over the next year...

    GROWING GROWING GROWING

    Any FOOL can see where all the new additions will take SIRI over the next year and beyond...

    SIRIUS XM News for 2009

    New Satilite with better reception...

    Can listen to SIRIUS on your iPhone...

    Can recharge your iPhone on SIRIUS XM SKY DOCK and listen to SIRIUS while charging iPhone...

    New mobile SIRIUS XM DEVICES...

    New iPods have capability to listen to Sirius xm...

    Sirius Xm expanding into other countries...

    Economy improving = more new subscribers...

    More advertising = more new subscribers...

    Possible bundling with Direct tv subscribers...

    Car ads on TV promoting SIRIUS Xm as standard equipment...

    Every car manufacture now has SIRUIS XM installed in one or more of their car models...

    And who knows what Mel will come up with next that will launch SIRIUS XM in a whole new direction...

    SUBS= 18,651,278

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 5:59 PM, khenry7650 wrote:

    18559201

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 6:30 PM, kram45n wrote:

    Mel won't fail us! Sirius is here to stay.

    18,725.123

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 6:46 PM, TxTom wrote:

    I sold all my SIRI this week.

    I bought a new Camaro and when the free subscription expired I didn't renew it. If I own the stock and still won't subscribe, why would I think a bunch of other folks would?

    I don't see a lot of upside in this stock. It was great at 14 cents, but it seems to be stagnant now.

    Adios Sirius.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 7:16 PM, tpe59 wrote:

    18,000,001

    SiriusXM needs to ditch their current business model. If they can't make a profit with their current subscriber base paying $13/month then its unlikely to ever happen. They need to start offering a basic package of stations for free and only charge for the premium stations. Of course these free packages will also involve being subjected to advertising. I think this path is what the National Assoc. of Broadcasters (NAB) feared the most when they fought so hard to block the merger.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 7:23 PM, nayeemfm wrote:

    In mid Aug during the CC Mel said we have positive subscribers for the month of July and that was before the CFC started fully. We will have positive subscribers. Make no mistakes.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 7:43 PM, yamazed wrote:

    Approx. 19.1 Million

    Shares forecast: $0.75 to $1.12

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 10:25 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    Worst economy in 80 years, ya still growing. After Q3, Q4, it will be official. If you understand how subs are calculated, you would already know they will be back to growing shortly. FCF is achievable this year. As quoted by Mel in Q4.

  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 11:40 PM, aamcadams wrote:

    as a subscriber, I can tell you they are almost on thier way OUT of my car. I dont get the promised quality, the commecials are killing me, they've killed off the computer streamer, AND the price increase! I shouldn't have to pay for every FOUL_UP they make. At some point, soon, I'm gonna look at the reciever & put in a 6disc deck for the money I save. I cant be the only one DEEPLY disappointed in the "service" quality drop. At least I could let my step-kids use the computers in their rooms w/streaming. They keep wanting me to pay for their over-payment of the system I bought.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 3:28 AM, akorn28 wrote:

    I believe that there will be 18,221,645. I wont be one.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 8:35 AM, mpk44 wrote:

    Nice cross section of replies. I won't make a guess on subs, but will comment on the product. I love it. I am hating the stock right now, but the product is undeniably a great one, especially for those who travel during work. Yes, you can plug an ipod in you aux plug and listen to it, but you're only listening to music that you have to load. If you like that, good for you. Personally, I want the varied content ALONG with the music -fresh music, varied music, any music you want - just turn the dial.

    The stock is worth bashing, bash away. The company's balance sheet sucks, and they've never turned a penny profit. I understand that, but am still long on some shares. Time will settle this argument, but there's no bashing the product; it's good. It may not be for everyone; so be it.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 10:14 AM, HFStern wrote:

    AFTER THIRD QUARTER REPORT THE STOCK WILL GO "TO THE MOON, ALICE, TO THE MOON!" --Ralph Kramden

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 10:16 AM, Huayra wrote:

    Why does TMF list so many articles on this stock. Since I am an oversees investors I didn't really know this stock beforehand, but seeing all the fuss I decided to have a look.

    As investors everybody is allowed that have their views, but as editors it would be expected to have some constraint in posting certain articles. It this company is a sponsor of this site I assume this is disclosed somewhere.

    Looking at the numbers I see this company has a market value of 2,4 billion!

    A P/B of 17!

    A Debt to Equity of 21.1!

    A horrendous operating margin.

    Still people read these articles and invest in this company while there are thousands of other high quality companies with low P/B's & a nice dividend of 5-10% in the process.

    I just hope that people understand that there is no such thing as easy money and that the changes that this company will suddenly change into a jewel are very, very slim.

    Stockprices can always go up and down, but when this stock rises, that is also the case for many more companies which pose much less risk to your initial investment.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 10:23 AM, BuffettIII wrote:

    Mr. Rick Aristotle Munarriz:

    Your consistent, anti-Sirius spin is noteworthy. Are you certain there isn't a short position you should disclose to us?

    Let me guess. You don't like the metrics. The stock breaks every analysis rule you've ever been taught. So you're comfortable bashing it. After all, numbers don't lie, right?

    That, my plucky friend, is the difference between fundamental and technical analysis.

    You criticize the stock for it's financial perfomance this year. Fair enough. Bigger companies have gone belly up this year.

    Are you on the Forbes 500 list, Rick? I don't think so. Here's a fact to keep in mind. John Malone didn't get on that list by being stupid and he essentially owns 40% of this company.

    Do you listen to Sinatra, Rick?

    "That's Life! And as funny as it may seem, some people get their kicks, stomping on a dream."

    The company has defied the odds thus far. It is in danger it is true. Frankly this is a stock only for risk takers only right now. If that isn't your cup of tea, I suggest you find another dog to kick.

    Keep your words sweet, my friend, because some day you may have to eat them.

    Position: Sirius Long

    Buffett III

    :)

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 10:35 AM, tigeri wrote:

    I think subscriptions have toped out plus or minus a few hundred thousand.

    The real point here is that Sirius will have to buy companies that are subscription fee based and then offer Sirius as an add on.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 1:12 PM, bubbaduke wrote:

    18,437,321

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 2:15 PM, Guise wrote:

    Subscribers: 19, 013,213

    Share Price: .89

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 4:02 PM, xjp83x wrote:

    I don't see any future for XM Radio. Radio itself is long gone history, people install tvs and dvds in their cars. Unless they come up with a better innovation to make use of this technology, they are going downhill.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 4:38 PM, booyahh wrote:

    "Radio itself is long gone history, people install tvs and dvds in their cars."

    it's kinda hard to watch tv and drive at the same time

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 7:03 PM, ibtd4 wrote:

    Let's be realistic. The only reason subscriber losses weren't as bad in the 2nd quarter as the 1st is because Sirius held up the Iphone app until just before the end of the quarter and gave a free trial that extended into the 3rd quarter. Losses were vastly understated and while they will count the cash for clunkers cars (also on free trial), they will disappear too. The fact is that this company is badly mismanaged and they wasted the years in which they had a technology advantage adding more and more over-price "content," never once turning a profit. Sirius is well into its death throws. Game over, man.

  • Report this Comment On September 25, 2009, at 7:08 PM, ibtd4 wrote:

    Let's be realistic. The only reason subscriber losses weren't as bad in the 2nd quarter as the 1st is because Sirius held up the Iphone app until just before the end of the quarter and gave a free trial that extended into the 3rd quarter. Losses were vastly understated and while they will count the cash for clunkers cars (also on free trial), they will disappear too. The fact is that this company is badly mismanaged and they wasted the years in which they had a technology advantage adding more and more over-price "content," never once turning a profit. Sirius is well into its death throws. Game over, man.

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 12:39 AM, georcole wrote:

    18,374,569

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 9:04 AM, badbaa wrote:

    18,550,000

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 9:16 AM, ibtd4 wrote:

    The number of subscribers reported is meaningless, particularly when it comes to Sirius. The company is most creative concerning what it counts as a subscriber and includes radios in cars that haven't even been sold to a potential customer. What matters is the number of PAYING subscribers because they are the only ones that bring in revenue. The goal of every company is to make money and in 15 years Sirius has done nothing but lose it. Satellite radio was a good idea, but their dreams got ahead of consumer interest. They paid too much for content of questionable value rather than stick with music and news. As a result, the incompetence of management destroyed satellite radio. They've priced themselves out of the mainstream market and eventually they will fail.

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 11:54 AM, EagleWings wrote:

    Don't think a lot about the stock, but the product is awesome! (maybe I should rethink the stock) I drive a truck for FedEx, 645 miles a night. I see the dash on trucks and cars very easily, especially at night. XM/Sirius is a prominent fixture in both. Not many truckers that I have talked to don't own the XM. They, like myself, have become addicted to the service. Fox, CNN, CNBC, all the music, NPR, etc, etc. I think that on

    a rebounding economy, when trucks start hauling the freight we used to haul, and consequently, more are back on the road, then the sales of XM will follow. At least in the transport arena. My .02

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 2:07 PM, BigVincent wrote:

    I think sirius/xms business model is fundamentally sound.

    I think that 2009 was a horrible year for almost every company.

    Some say that sirius/xm only makes 2.7billion a year. In truth this is some what correct until you take into effect advertising base which generates roughly 2million, so the company is generating 2.9Billion.

    The company won't see the full effect of what has happened from the royalty $1.98 fee for at least 3 quarters, it's only been 2 quarters so far. There needs to be a relationship between the churn, to the amount paid, and figures are so rough that any assessment or speculative number or figure would be absurd to calculate. In relationship to acquisition cost this number quarter to quarter is getting better.

    What we do know is that EBITDA is getting much better from quarter to quarter. If sirius xm can generate 3.2billion by the end of 2010 the company will be cash flow positive and be able to match it's debt, and operate expense. The company has shown that it is on the road to recovery, but it is a pains taking path that won't be seen until the 4th quarter, or 1st quarter of next year.

    Sirius LONG

  • Report this Comment On September 26, 2009, at 2:21 PM, ibtd4 wrote:

    BigVincent : I think you've got your price increases mixed up, which is understandable given the frequency of them. The $2 increase was in July .... this quarter.

  • Report this Comment On September 27, 2009, at 8:00 AM, FluffypantsMcGee wrote:

    Mel lies.

    Cancelled radios are left active and are counted in the numbers.

    Enjoy your "Sirius LONG" when the curtain is pulled back.

  • Report this Comment On September 27, 2009, at 10:40 AM, jtsailjt wrote:

    SiriusXM is on it's way out, just a matter of time. I've subscribed for over 4 years but when my subscription ends in March, I'm done with it. Poor decisions about constantly switching around content just when you find some stations you like to listen to, and constantly trying to nickel and dime regular subscribers will cause others like myself to leave. I'm a long time XM subscriber in one car, and my new 2nd car is "Sirius ready" but they tell me they aren't "set up" to recognize my second car as a secondary account even though SiriusXM is all one company, so tell me I must pay for two primary accounts. Wrong, I'll go back to FM radio and use my iPhone music and Pandora on long trips.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 5:39 AM, bearandangus wrote:

    I am going to go with 19,212,000 subscribers.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 8:10 AM, wayno1000 wrote:

    i only have it for Howard Stern, and even he is getting lame lately

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 9:42 AM, AreYouSirius wrote:

    Cash for clunkers will only bring non-paying free trial subs for at least the present quarters. Sirius has been reporting that less than half of the free trial subscribers ever opt to pay for service. Since Retail sales seem to be in the crapper, your number seems Okay. Shareholder must hope they are not lower.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 1:16 PM, JWILLI44 wrote:

    I maybe out of touch with technology but...I keep hearing how more phones are getting unlimited data plans which allow them to listen to "free" radio such as pandora and slacker. I personally find it hard to believe that many people will choose to use their cell phone as a entertainment device while driving. You get in your car, then got to set up your phone to Pandora or whatever....make sure you have a good signal...And..1 more thing....YOU MIGHT GET A PHONE CALL!!!. I have a phone with unlimited data...I can't imagine using it for radio in my car...Ok, in the office with headphones yes...But while Im driving? SIRIUS XM is made for the car and is easy to turn on as your car radio...My cell phone is not designed to be a car radio...Sure, I know some geeks love to hook up their iphone or other smart phone and get Pandora and customize stations...Have we all become that tech savvy? I just like to get in the car choose a station and drive anywhere and get my entertainment..Oh..and anyone ever heard of Sports and Talk radio? not just a juke box of songs? I can't imagine a busy person over the age of 30, wanting to go through all the trouble of using Pandora or slacker to save $15.00 or so a month..Many people still use their phones for calls, navigation, Now they going to use it for radio too? I just don't see it. Even this skydock, I feel will not be big for Iphones.....The ipod touch is where it will be a winner..Your cell phone should be used for a phone, and maybe navigation in the car....not a radio!

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 1:29 PM, wolfwuf wrote:

    Sirius must get any advertising and better support by their telephone staff...They should also identify other demographic groups...i.e. retired, rural, those of us who don't use a cell phone except occasioinally...

    I got Sirius w/ a boombox for Mother's Day and you would have to break my arm to get it back.

    But you all may be right ...those of you who won't resubscribe...but I wonder how long it will take before you come back.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 4:41 PM, Fersnok wrote:

    I actually tried to buy a second radio, meaning I would have paid MORE for my subscription. (Call me crazy. I liked it. My fiancee liked it. We wanted it in two cars.) But XM's website failed as a shopper-education tool. (I couldn't make sense out of what was what and how one would install the various offerings. A mess of an e-commerce site!)

    So I went to BestBuy to look at the product boxes -- to actually see the product and what was in the box. Made a decision to buy a product off the shelf. Was ready to check out, plug it in, and then call XM to get it activated -- but alas! BestBuy was unable to sell it to me without me giving them all sorts of personal information. (Can't a guy just pay for a product and walk out the doors these days?!)

    So no sale. BestBuy would not budge on this "we need your personal information" policy.

    Bottom line: SIRI and its partners have to make it easier to buy and install these products into EXISTING vehicles without the kabuki dance of paperwork and bureaucracy. Would-be buyers are walking out the door and clicking off of webpages because the process is more complicated than it needs to be.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 6:46 PM, crunchyoyster wrote:

    They are shrinking. I recently threatened to cancel my account, and they offered me a decent discount. They are desperate to keep their subscriber numbers up.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 6:48 PM, scottvuko wrote:

    I would say a 1% decrease or 18,229,300

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 8:30 PM, Quincynova wrote:

    I see Sirius China,Sirius Europe etc. we alredy have Sirius Canada,right?

    Is there a good possibility Sirius will go global? That will be a game changer.

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2009, at 3:04 PM, oghowie wrote:

    Free 3 months and most people don't subscribe afterwards.

    I had NavTraffic for 2 years and canceled it just to save a few bucks a month since I can get traffic on my iPhone. Most of the songs played on the radio are also similar to what is played on normal radio. It's not that rare to change from one XM station from another and hear the same song on both.

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2009, at 4:02 PM, suejimkramer wrote:

    If you're as fed up as I am about Jim cramer, Mad Money and thestreet.com slandering sirius and their attempted market manipulation tactics, call them directly at 1-561-354-4400 and ask for the man responsible. Glenn Hall editor in chief of thestreet.com. Guess what else I did. I called LUNDY LAW offices (1-866-281-8612) in Philadelphia to sue cnbc and mad money, jim cramer, and glenn hall for the pain and suffering i've been going thru since they decided to illegally slander this company. NOONE WILL STAND UP FOR YOU! THIS IS ILLEGAL! YOU CAN DO SOMETHING BECAUSE THE FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION IS OBVIOUSLY LETTING THIS HAPPEN! MAYBE I WON'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE, BUT AT LEAST I'M TRYING! Siri will skyrocket tomorrow when the third quarter earnings come out and the motleyfool, street.com, glenn hall and jim kramer will all eventually pay for their slander and market manipulation tactics. Good luck with your stocks, I'm still happy with mine.

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2009, at 10:24 PM, HarryCaraysGhost wrote:

    18,123,456

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2009, at 10:25 PM, HarryCaraysGhost wrote:

    18,123,456

  • Report this Comment On September 30, 2009, at 3:28 PM, etobey wrote:

    I am a believer sirus has the products people will

    want that is muisic on the run.

  • Report this Comment On September 30, 2009, at 6:09 PM, TMFEldrehad wrote:

    Where wil Sirius XM stand at the end of the third quarter? I haven't a clue.

    Where will Sirius XM ultimately wind-up? On the scrap-heap of failed businesses.

  • Report this Comment On September 30, 2009, at 7:33 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    "There is this device called an iPod. For about $20, you can hook these devices through the Aux connection of your in-dash stereo system. By doing this, you can listen to your iPod anywhere in the world with 0 commercials and with 0 monthly fees. I heard this company Apple has created several variations of this device and is pretty successful. You should look into it.

    :)"

    haha oh thats funny but my headphones sound better then my stereo so i just use them.

    oh well i guess it's better to be talked bad about then not be talked about at all. right?

  • Report this Comment On October 01, 2009, at 5:47 PM, PSU69 wrote:

    19,124,682

    To the shorts I say good luck.

    To the longs (like me) I say having the courage to hang will pay off 10X.

    I added the product to my car (Porsche) because their system is inferior. Anyone want a genuine Porsche radio and amp? I put in Alpine and a 550 watt Alpine amp. The SIRI sat antenna is stealthy under the carbon covers near the wipers. Reception THRU the carbon is amazing....even IN MY GARAGE.

  • Report this Comment On October 01, 2009, at 8:35 PM, kntall wrote:

    After all is said and done by the year 2015,

    subscr.....13,000,000.00

    stock.......10.00

    profits.....??????????????

    what say you ???????????????

  • Report this Comment On October 03, 2009, at 10:32 AM, dcsilver wrote:

    The third quarter will be a mirage of good news with no foundation...

    My call is 18,535,500

    The stock will bounce to .85 the day before the conference call and then settle back to .55 after the conference call.

    You can see my blog to know my feelings on Sirius - but essentially dilution has killed the stock price, not negative articles on the FOOL, thestreet.com, or Jim Cramer.

    Even with dilution, this stock has a target value of 1.50 if car sales return to normal in 2010 and somewhere between 11-13 million cars get sold.

  • Report this Comment On October 04, 2009, at 10:41 AM, cobbcity wrote:

    I can only think of one person I know who has XM in their car and still subscribes to it. Most new cars come with a port to plug in your iPod for all the commercial free music you want at no charge.

    and that one person who still subscribes gets a "come back for $4.99 a month postcard soon after he lets his subscription lapse." In fact, I just got one yesterday.

    Wonder how many subscribers are deeply discounted just to keep them?

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2009, at 2:49 AM, dstnewman wrote:

    Ok Rick, I'll take you up on your offer. =)

    My official guess is a net ADD of 95k subscribers, finishing off right around 18,510,000.

    My official predictions will be published today (Tuesday 11/3/09) at http://www.satwaves.com. Make sure when you mention me in your article, you include the URL to satwaves. =)

    Im sorry you won't make it to our live blogging event... Maybe next quarter.

    GIve me a shout sometime.

    David "Newman" Phillips

    http://www.satwaves.com

    Newman@satwaves.com

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