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10

Sirius Bucks the Bears

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The race to the dollar bill is over.

Shares of Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) hit the $1 mark shortly after this morning's open. A buck may not seem like much, but this is the first time in 17 months that the satellite radio operator's stock has reached such lofty highs.

The $1 mark became an essential target for Sirius XM after it received a delisting notice last year. It has until mid-March to comply by closing above the $1 mark for 10 consecutive trading days.

That may be easier said than done, given the wild price swings that have been typical with Sirius XM's volatile stock. I question whether Sirius XM will need to hold its pose over the next two weeks.

When pepper spray maker Mace Security International (Nasdaq: MACE  ) traded above $1 for 10 straight days last month, that was enough to satisfy Nasdaq's listing requirements. However, Mace is a puny $15 million company. Sirius XM commands a market cap of roughly $4 billion, which grows to more than $6 billion when you tack on the 40% preferred share stake owned by Liberty Capital (Nasdaq: LCAPA  ) . Scoop on the approximately $3 billion in debt, and the enterprise value creeps up to more than $9 billion.

Can Nasdaq really afford to cut ties with a company that the market deems to be worth nearly $10 billion because its share price is too small?

It only helps Sirius XM's case that daily trading volume on the stock has averaged close to 40 million shares in recent months. Cutting Sirius XM loose on principle may be bad for many of Nasdaq OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ  ) shareholders.

Just as "age is only a number," the same can be said of a stock price.

A reverse split has been sitting in the Sirius XM playbook since last year, just like a fire extinguisher behind an "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" box. CEO Mel Karmazin will use it if he has to, though it's silly that something as zero-sum as a reverse stock split would be all it takes to bring Sirius XM back into exchange compliance.

During the company's second-quarter conference call last year, Sirius XM pointed out the mindless hoop-jumping the Nasdaq pricing restriction requires. The company even called out Warren Buffett, pointing out that the pricey Class A shares of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) are less shareholder-friendly than the easily accessible Sirius XM stock.

I see nothing wrong with a reverse split, especially for a company with billions of shares outstanding. I actually still think a reverse would be in Sirius XM's long-term interest -- regardless of how the next two weeks play out -- but a listing requirement that can be circumvented by the zero-sum switcheroo is nuts.

Hopefully Sirius XM stays perched above the $1 mark. After all of the positive developments over the past year, it deserves it. However, it would still be an interesting game of chicken between Sirius XM and Nasdaq if it falls through.

It's a game that Sirius XM will inevitably win.

Now that Sirius XM has hit the $1 mark, what will it hit next: $2 or $0.50? Share your thoughts in the comment box below.

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Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. Berkshire Hathaway and priceline.com are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 4:30 PM, Cool700 wrote:

    With Revenues of $2.5 Billion and a Cash Flow of $100 Million I would say SIRI climbs much higher! Throw in the NOLS (Net operating Losses) at $6 Billion which is about $2.38 Billion in tax breaks for 20 years which just about trumps any debt. Debt has been taken care of for all of 2010.

    This stock should be much higher!

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 4:47 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

    Rick, I believe that you were the first at MF to start seeing the value in SIRI. Sadly some of your MF brethren still seem to think this is some sort of fluke. What will it take for SIRI's CAPS rating to improve on MF? How many positive quarters, how much free cash flow and how many subscribers is the magic number needed for MF to see that this stock is going nowhere but up?

    If the 4Q report beats Wall Street's expectations, expect this stock to be at $1.50 by April-May and $3.00 by the end of the year.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 5:25 PM, someonehelpme wrote:

    I am a recent college grad and have never traded before. I wanted to play around with penny stocks and thought Sirius XM was a good bet (although it's not a penny stock anymore - technically).

    I only want to invest $500, which is a lot for me. Is this a good stock to buy right now?

    Keep in mind, I'm not really looking for the safest long-term investment.

    Everyone's help is much appreciated.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 5:27 PM, someonehelpme wrote:

    I am a recent college grad and have never traded before. I wanted to play around with penny stocks and thought Sirius XM was a good bet (although it's not a penny stock anymore - technically).

    I only want to invest $500, which is a lot for me. Is this a good stock to buy right now?

    Keep in mind, I'm not really looking for the safest long-term investment.

    Everyone's help is much appreciated.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 5:59 PM, Guise wrote:

    Dear Help:

    Sirius is a monopolized type of entertainment whose competitors differ significantly in core convenience and content. And in many instances, they are all serving the same demographic ~ gadget-loving, computer-saavy, entertainment-hungry folks with disposable income. Any alleged "competitors" are actually "brothers" who share the same audience. Most Sirius subscribers also own an iPod for example.

    Sirius is associated with some of the best business minds in the entertainment industry. It's in bed with Liberty / DirecTV, hugely popular. And, it involves space-age sh*t. Satellites floating around "out there". Perhaps GPS or Onstar competition is on the horizon. Who knows? It's simply cool and you'll want to be cool and rich. It's a good way to be. Buy!

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 6:07 PM, nowbiteme wrote:

    MACE BLOWS.. Its not even close to being worth a $1.

    Management is a joke and they still cant decide if they are a "security products" company, or a internet marketing company.

    CEO is joke and so his his management team.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 6:15 PM, mrtravel wrote:

    Re: $500 investment

    Well, it would have been good to invest when it was below 10 cents. Of course, now it is over $1, so it is no longer a penny stock. I think there is substantial room for gain, and not a big risk of loss. The economy will recover. I believe there are favorable tax laws on the previous losses, that will have benefit to those who invest now, as there will be a lot of untaxed profit, if I understand this correctly.

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 6:57 PM, jrbatista wrote:

    Actually, SIRI was never a "penny stock" by definition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_stock), even when it was down to 6 cents.

    Regarding the SIRI CAPS rating, a better question would be how soon will MF make it ratable again, so that the rating can change. I believe the drop below $1 is what made it unratable (certainly wasn't the market cap!), so will the Fool also follow the 10 day consecutive rule before opening it up again?

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 7:08 PM, ipfmanager wrote:

    if you want to gamble, do penny bio-techs, bio-gen, and pharma spin-off stocks that only have one or two drugs in their pipeline. Those are the true gambles. Siri has barely any equity, and how long can they really grow these revenue #'s for? (Don't get me wrong. I'm long SIRI @ 0.12. Selling most soon. Pointless to get in after such a run up.)

  • Report this Comment On February 17, 2010, at 7:20 PM, NWCubbyBear wrote:

    @ Help grad - if you want to get into investing, you should do a little research before tossing your money onto a roulette table. SIRI has a lot of potential but you need to understand where it fits in your "investment strategy". At this time, it is a speculation stock and if you take the emotion out of it, it is no different than going to Vegas and popping your $500 bucks on a table. You may make a lot of money, or you may lose your $500 bucks. If $500 bucks is less than 5% of your investement strategy, then it may be fun to watch over the next couple of years. If $500 bucks is over 50% of your investment strategy then you are just gambling and need to do more homework.

    Best of luck either way.

  • Report this Comment On February 18, 2010, at 8:05 AM, edwardstewart wrote:

    My out price is between $11 and $17. Things can change, but when it falls in that range I will consider selling. Obviously I'm long in Siri. Go ahead, laugh at me...

  • Report this Comment On February 19, 2010, at 11:44 PM, free2012 wrote:

    if you have directv you know sirius is no longer there and is now sonic tap.not sure why its no longer there but changed few days ago.

  • Report this Comment On February 22, 2010, at 2:40 AM, Marquus1 wrote:

    Given that complaints have been recently issued with the CRTC (Canada) about Sirius Canada fraudulently re-subscribing members by changing the expiry date on expired credit cards, it will be interesting to see where things go with them.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
SIRI $1.93 Down -0.06 -3.02%
Sirius XM Radio CAPS Rating: **
MACE $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
MACE SECURITY INTE… CAPS Rating: No stars
NDAQ $22.06 Up +0.26 +1.19%
Nasdaq Stock Marke… CAPS Rating: ****
LCAPA $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Liberty Media Corp… CAPS Rating: ***
BRK-A $119500.00 Down -717.00 -0.60%
Berkshire Hathaway… CAPS Rating: ****
BRK-B $79.25 Down -0.55 -0.69%
Berkshire Hathaway CAPS Rating: *****

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