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Google's Riskier Than You Think

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There's been plenty of controversy over the years about the insistence of Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) execs on splitting the company's shares into two voting classes, with the Class B shares of co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, and CEO Eric Schmidt, having ten times the voting power of the Class A shares that the rest of us can buy via the market. This arrangement guarantees that Brin, Page, and Schmidt can collectively shoot down any shareholder proposal in spite of having a combined ownership stake that's well below 50%.

Judging by how Brin, Page, and Schmidt run their company, I can see why they'd want such a safeguard in place against potential shareholder wrath.

Defenders of the dual voting-class structure might argue that Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-B  ) shares have long worked under similar rules, with the net effect of giving Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger the same kind of ability to overrule shareholder wishes. But Buffett and Munger also have a very hard-earned reputation of making the growth of shareholder value their first priority. Google, on the other hand, is not only a participant in the value-destroying practice of repricing stock options grants, it's arguably one of its worst offenders, having repriced options for over 6 million shares last year by $191 or more. You don't need to be one of the math whizzes working on Google's search algorithms to know that's a lot of money.

Can you see Buffett signing off on the repricing of millions of Berkshire stock options by triple-digit dollar amounts, assuming he was even a fan of using stock options for compensation purposes? Me neither.

Google's leadership has produced plenty of value for shareholders since their company first went public. And it's quite possible that they'll produce more of it in the coming years. But all the same, investors should realize that they're putting their money into a company that, from the looks of things, also has other priorities in mind.

A different view of success
Investors definitely have a lot of reasons to like Google: While well off their 2007 highs, the company's shares are still up more than 80% over the last twelve months, and more than 580% from their IPO price of $85. Minor fluctuations aside, the company continues to throttle Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO  ) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) in its bread-and-butter search and affiliate advertising businesses, and as long as that's the case, it should remain a cash cow. But all the same, it's worth asking whether Google's actions often give shareholder interests a backseat to management's quirky vision of the kind of company that their brainchild should be.

And by such behavior, I'm not merely thinking about Google's headline-grabbing threat to exit the Chinese market rather than continue censoring its search results on Google.cn. In fact, I don't think it's worth dwelling on that move in particular. At least in the Chinese censorship case, Google's decision, while potentially damaging to shareholders (though less so to Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU  ) ), is based on an honest attempt to stick to its stated moral principles. Whereas in many of the company's other moves, shareholder interests are harmed simply because Google's executives appear to define "success" in a different way than what you'd expect for a company that has to answer to public investors.

In a nutshell, Google's leadership seems to think of "success" not just in terms of building shareholder value by growing earnings and cash flow per share, but also in terms of being able to create cool new products and services, and to remake the way that markets and even industries work. For sure, these goals aren't always incompatible: Google Maps and Gmail turned the online mapping and email markets on their heads, and they also seem to be generating meaningful advertising revenues for the company. And while YouTube has burned up quite a lot of cash, it looks like that site's finally on the verge of turning profitable -- if only after its huge losses raised some alarm bells.

Questionable business decisions
But how about Google Books? Between the cost of scanning and indexing its growing library of books and magazines, and the $125 million settlement that it reached with authors and publishers in 2008, I'll go out on a limb and assume that the modest amounts of advertising delivered by Google Books hasn't come close to recouping its costs.

Then there's the hundreds of millions that Google has committed to investing in alternative energy research -- not exactly a core business for the company. Going in hand with these investments is the creation of Google Energy, and its plans to gain access to and sell enough power from renewable sources to make Google as a whole "carbon-neutral." A laudable goal, but let's keep in mind here that Google's data center infrastructure, with its hundreds of thousands of servers, is one of the biggest IT power hogs on the entire planet. Unless the government proves willing to subsidize the company's efforts on a massive scale, expect this operation to be another cash sinkhole.

Let's also not forget Google's recent plans to enter the ISP business by launching an "experimental" fiber network that will provide 1 Gbps Internet access to as many as 500,000 homes. As AT&T (NYSE: T  ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) can attest, digging up residential streets to install fiber can get pretty expensive. Google claims that its network will be a test bed for running new, bandwidth-intensive applications. But this looks like a ridiculously costly way of achieving that goal. More plausible to me is the idea that this is a desperate attempt by Google's leadership to spur the adoption of faster broadband connections in the U.S., even if the chances of success are hardly in Google's favor.

All of these initiatives give the impression of a company that's so confident that it can keep shareholders happy via the cash generated by its search advertising business that it can get away with putting some shareholder value at risk via actions that "feel good" to do. And as long as Brin, Page, and Schmidt keep signing off on such feel-good actions, Google is a riskier investment than you might otherwise consider it to be.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Eric Jhonsa does not have a position in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Baidu and Google are Motley Fool Rule Breakers choices. Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Motley Fool Options has recommended a diagonal call position on Microsoft. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway New Com. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 12:46 PM, DJDynamicNC wrote:

    Risky perhaps from a purely financial sense, but these sorts of initiatives make Google much more attractive to me.

    And although alternative energy may not be Google's core industry, it's most assuredly a growth industry.

    Google's a bit out of realistic price range for me, but when that changes I expect to add it to my collection.

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 2:21 PM, pete163 wrote:

    Google is ok I guess, it will never be a Berkshire Hathawa stock and everyone knows this fact. It dose have something, what I have no idea. But people will pure money into the hands of people they don't know! Just thinking they will make a fast buck. Google saw you coming a long time ago. Stick with what you KNOW and stop hopping for dollars to fall from the sky

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 3:00 PM, kennyJ43 wrote:

    Google is a different company as it rarely looks for a quick short-term profit, it creates shareholder value through long-term products. Many describe it as a one trick pony, but its these obtuse projects that are throwing more advertising revenue at its core business.

    The electric initiatives are also good for the bottom line. If Google can control there electricity expenditures in its huge data-centers, their balance sheet as well as any dividends these projects produce will have a positive impact on the company.

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 3:20 PM, golfer121501 wrote:

    "sell enough power from renewable sources to make Google as a whole "carbon-neutral." A laudable goal, but let's keep in mind..."

    The author may find Google's attempt at carbon neutrality a "laudable goal", but I find it to be a BIG WASTE of money. If you want to jump ships and get into renewable energy that's one thing, but to do it to prove that you ascribe to a bogus enviro-weeney goal is a foolish waste of shareholder value.

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 5:59 PM, plange01 wrote:

    if google gets thrown out of china in spite of their best efforts to stay there will be a huge loss in revenue as advertisers leave..

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 6:39 PM, PSU69 wrote:

    GOOG has share in a media that is going to keep growing as print media shrinks. As younger people take over the computerless exec suites, they will be churning more and more dollars. I own GOOG and I respect their stand on FREE speech. China, Russia, Iran, and now Chavez are all ANTI-Internet freedom. Why?

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 6:42 PM, plange01 wrote:

    google is nothing more than a online phone book with its stock selling at the ridiculous price of over $500 a share!if google is riskier than i think it will be out of business in a year!

  • Report this Comment On March 16, 2010, at 7:43 PM, slard271 wrote:

    It's commentary like this that just goes to show that GOOG is not a good investment for those looking to make a quick buck holding it for 6 months. The company is in it for the long haul and is precisely why many don't understand these kinds of initiatives. Shareholder value will come over time.

    Those that don't understand how Google can come to monetize energy in combination with their ability to harvest massive quantities of data are amazingly myopic. Any investor seriously on-board with how Google can change things looks at cash "sinkholes" like Google Books, share repricing, and the like as mere pittances. They are a means to an end, not an end themselves.

    *Generally speaking*, as a shareholder of any company, you are entitled to absolutely nothing other than to lose your entire investment, so give up the entitlement attitude. If you don't understand how Google works, don't invest in it. If you don't understand how Google can make you money, place your faith (and cash) elsewhere. Let the rest of us cash in.

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 12:34 AM, mattius10 wrote:

    Eric,

    Excellent post. These are exactly the type of articles that i would like to see the Fool produce more of. Informative and thought provoking, and even though Google is one of the most thoroughly covered companies out there you provided an angle that i personally haven't seen talked about very much.

    Slard,

    I don't know all the details of Google's share repricing. Out of curiosity, if share repricing is a means to an end, what exactly is the end goal?

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 1:01 AM, walt373 wrote:

    Take over the world obviously...

  • Report this Comment On March 17, 2010, at 1:01 AM, walt373 wrote:

    Take over the world obviously...

  • Report this Comment On April 06, 2010, at 1:38 AM, yuhong2 wrote:

    "*Generally speaking*, as a shareholder of any company, you are entitled to absolutely nothing other than to lose your entire investment, so give up the entitlement attitude."

    Agreed++! We need to move away from "maximizing shareholder value".

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