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Today's Solar Rocket Ride

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Diminished expectations can lead to powerful stock price moves when good news unexpectedly arrives. When lots of short-sellers have a position in such a security, you can really see some fireworks.

This is exactly what happened today with Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq: ENER  ) . In 2008, ECD traded like it was the second coming of First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR  ) and traded hands at more than $80 per share at one point. Over the ensuing quarters, the solar laminate player has become one of the most unloved of all solar stocks. A seemingly endless sequence of restructurings and layoffs has enveloped the stock in serious gloom. ECD -- more than 20% of whose share float was sold short earlier this month -- makes SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA  ) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP  ) look resplendent by comparison.

Last quarter, ECD reported a net loss of $9.10 per share, well in excess of the share price at the time. It would have been extremely difficult for this company to report a worse earnings number today.

ECD still reported a loss for its fourth fiscal quarter, but there were some unexpectedly positive aspects to the report. Revenue came in ahead of expectations, the company generated some cash from operations, and it looks like ECD might even report a profitable quarter sometime next year. I told you diminished expectations are a powerful thing.

I know at least one bargain hunter who began sniffing around these shares earlier this year. He was a bit early, but he had the right idea: The time to think about investing in a high-flying stock is after that stock has taken a nosedive. He and other recent ECD investors may even make some money here. As for me, it's not clear that this company has a truly competitive offering, and I'll be fishing elsewhere. As always, though, I'd be keen to hear your thoughts on the prospects for this solar player.

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First Solar and Suntech Power are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Toby Shute doesn't have a position in any company mentioned. Check out his CAPS profile or follow his articles using Twitter or RSS. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2010, at 4:05 PM, ecdfan wrote:

    Toby, I think you should learn to how to read 10Ks. If you had done that, you would have noticed the adverse opinion by the auditors.

    Here is what the auditors had to say:

    "... Our audit was based on criteria established in Internal Control—Integrated Framework issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) and our report dated August 31, 2010 expressed an ADVERSE OPINION [my caps]... The Company utilizes a standard cost model to record inventory movements and periodically adjusts its inventory to actual costs. The control ensuring the accuracy of the adjustment to value inventory at actual cost in the financial statements did not operate effectively. The failure of this control results in a REASONABLE POSSIBILITY [my caps] that a MATERIAL MISSTATEMENT [my caps] of the annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected."

    Diminished expectations are a powerful thing, especially if nobody bothers to read those 10Ks.

    And, yeah, your "bargain hunter" better learn how to read 10Ks as well. Forget the nonexistent "competitive offering" (6.3%-6.7% efficient modules with ASP of $2.12 cannot and will not sell, when 13%-14% efficient crystalline modules sell at less than $1.70 per Watt). What a bargain hunter needs to explain is why ENER's bonds are trading at junk levels (over 20% yield), and how the company's unprofitable "assets" could be enough to cover the $293 million debt due 2013.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2010, at 10:34 AM, XMFSmashy wrote:

    ecdfan,

    As always, appreciate your insights into this company, if not your tone. If you're short the stock from considerably higher levels, you should be breathing easy. Lighten up.

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