A Force in Fertilizer

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Last time around, we looked at the big picture driving the demand for PotashCorp's (NYSE: POT) fertilizer products. Now that the company's monster fiscal year has come to a close, we can flesh out that picture with a few figures.

How about this fun farming fact? Indian imports of urea have risen more than 30-fold since 2003. Urea is one of the products falling under Potash's nitrogen products segment, and it's a combination of ammonia and carbon dioxide. Ammonia, in turn, is synthesized from natural gas, so Potash has a strong incentive to secure low-cost natural gas production. It's found such a supply in Trinidad and Tobago, a country where folks like Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) and Canadian Superior Energy (AMEX: SNG) have recently made big finds.

Potash (the mineral), which is experiencing strong demand as well, is mined directly out of the earth. Most of Potash's potash hails from Saskatchewan, a region perhaps better known for Cameco's (NYSE: CCJ) rich uranium deposits. We could have an argument about which deposits are more impressive, but the important point is that Potash has the biggest endowment in the world. Not only does the company produce the most potash (9.4 million tones in 2007), it holds around 75% of the world's excess capacity.

Add in the lucrative phosphate segment, and you have a company growing revenue by nearly 40% for the year. Profits fared significantly better, thanks to operating leverage. Potash is also very confident about 2008, forecasting per-share earnings growth in the neighborhood of 100%.

Now, the reason that investing in global megatrends can be so rewarding is that they tend to persist much longer than a normal business cycle. A couple more years like this one, and the valuation of Potash and competitors Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) won't look so steep in hindsight. Potash, for one, certainly sees value in the shares, having initiated a 5% buyback authorization that expires in one year.