This Is the Next Great Tech Market

India is more than an emerging economy. Mumbai and Bangalore, together, may be the world's next alternative to Silicon Valley.

Not just a richer class, a smarter class
The data is striking. According to a recent survey by India's Tata Consultancy Services, 71% of students in the country's metropolitan areas already use PCs. 66% of students in Bangalore -- home to tech outsourcing giants such as Infosys (Nasdaq: INFY  ) -- actively blog and use social media. These are the up-and-comers Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) founder Bill Gates was referring to in a speech at the annual NASSCOM conference in New Delhi in July.

"At first, some of the IT boom was built on low-cost labor. And, of course, as time goes on, you don't want to have that as the only differentiator and it's not a sustainable thing, because others can come along with that as well," Gates told the CEOs in attendance.

Gates said instead that Indian officials should emphasize research and development (as Singapore and China have) and encourage students to pursue Ph.D. degrees. This way they would be able to build the next Microsoft.

He's right. Silicon Valley isn't just home to successful college dropouts such as Gates or Steve Jobs. Former Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) CEO Andy Grove earned his Ph.D. in chemical engineering from UC Berkeley. Advanced education has long played a role in the development of the tech industry on our shores. Why not in India, too?

The ABCs of a great tech market
That's what one well-known Indian entrepreneur appears to be asking. Shiv Nadar, founder and chairman of HCL Technologies, is spearheading an effort to help poor, rural Indian children receive a free education via a program called VidyaGyan.

"We wanted to build leadership skills in students who come from rural areas, the lower income groups, those disadvantaged because of medium of instruction ... We feel intelligence is not privy to the people who speak a particular language," Nadar said in an interview with UTVi.

Notice the language Nadar uses. "Leadership skills," coming from the founder of a company that produced 98 billion rupees in revenue over the trailing 12 months, sounds a lot like "entrepreneurial skills." At the very least, Nadar seems intent on raising up a new intelligentsia in India, one capable of expanding the nation's industry and influence.

If so, he's picked a good time. Among the world's emerging nations, India is one of the most youthful; 32% of the population is less than 15 years of age. Contrast that with the U.S., where 20% of the population is under 15. China is even worse off: The sub-15 crowd makes up just 19% of the people.

India is where youth and innovation are converging. Tata Consultancy employs 48,000 people, 95% of whom are 25 years old or younger. These are the subcontinent's future tech leaders.

An immigration opportunity
In years past, they might have come to the U.S. But two forces are combining to keep them home: First is the greater interest and influence of trade groups such as NASSCOM and grassroots organizations such as Nadar's VidyaGyan. Second is the political climate here.

There's wide debate over the H-1B visa program that allows skilled workers -- many from India -- to work in the U.S. for years at a time. Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) and Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL  ) are among those known to have recruited and hired H-1B immigrants.

Prominent members of President Obama's transition team, such as Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) CEO Eric Schmidt, have argued in support of easing H1-B restrictions. Candidate Obama had expressed support for the program, but only in lieu of comprehensive immigration reform. He's also expressed a strong desire to see Americans earn more advanced degrees and fill positions that would otherwise go to foreign talent.

Congress, meanwhile, will debate the merits of the program as soon as New York Senator Charles Schumer introduces a bill in the Senate, planned for before Labor Day. Schumer is a well-known supporter of H-1B visas, but he could face a fight from legislators who argue that the program takes jobs from Americans.

Which brings us back to Tata's survey. As technically engaged as India's youth are, they also aren't relying on us; 49% of respondents said they would prefer to work in India. And why not? For a smart, well-educated young person, India is still what techies like to call a "green field" opportunity -- one where barriers have yet to be built up.

How to profit from this tech boom
For now, the best way to invest in a rising tech class in India is through IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) , already one of the region's largest consultants and employers. But that should change over time. Privately held software companies are already making headway. Pune-based Persistent Systems is a 19-year-old contract software developer that has attracted big-name venture capital investors such as Norwest Venture Partners and Intel Capital.

As more of these sorts of companies emerge, they'll create an IPO pipeline from India -- and opportunities to invest. For this reason and more, our Motley Fool Global Gains investment team is keeping a close watch on India's business climate.

And I do mean "close." The team has traveled to Asia in each of the last three years to scout for new ideas and meet with the management of companies that pique their interest, reporting back their findings to members each time. There's also a private discussion board where the team and members together discuss stock ideas from the subcontinent. To see all these prior reports, as well as their full list of recommendations, and to get access to the private discussion area, click here. A 30-day guest pass is free.

Already subscribe to Global Gains? Log in here.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers owned shares of IBM, Oracle, and Google, as well as Google LEAPs, at the time of publication. Microsoft and Intel are Inside Value picks. Google is a Rule Breakers selection. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 25, 2009, at 5:22 PM, Howard1ii wrote:

    As usual, Obama is talking out of both sides of his mouth "Candidate Obama had expressed support for the H1B program, but only in lieu of comprehensive immigration reform. He's also expressed a strong desire to see Americans earn more advanced degrees and fill positions that would otherwise go to foreign talent. Most likely the first part of this sentence was in a speech in the Silicon Valley, the second part was someplace in the mid-west.

  • Report this Comment On August 27, 2009, at 11:11 AM, DrGeneNelson wrote:

    Kamal Nath, then India's Commerce Minister correctly identified the H-1B Visa as the "outsourcing visa" in a 15 April 2007 New York Times article http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/business/yourmoney/15view....

    Nobel economist, Dr. Milton Friedman correctly characterized the H-1B Visa program as a "government subsidy" in a 2002 article "H-1B Is Just Another Gov't. Subsidy" http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/72848/H_1B_Is_Just_An...

    Political corruption played a large part in the growth of the H1-B Visa program, aided by "the best and the brightest" Microsoft lobbyist, Jack A. Abramoff. See a legal filing in the case USA v Abramoff here: http://tinyurl.com/koyqg2. A short version is at "The Greedy Gates Immigration Gambit." http://tinyurl.com/37l8ry

    After you are done reading, I think you will agree that this corrupt program should be terminated ASAP.

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