Saved by Emerging Markets. Sort Of.

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The emerging markets are saving GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) -- at least on the top of the profit-loss statement.

The company managed a 15% increase in revenue for the third quarter, but that was mostly because of a weaker British pound. Sales at constant currency were up just 3%. Still, we shouldn't complain, considering the last time the company reported revenue growth at constant currency was the fourth quarter of 2007.

Sales in the U.S. were down 12% as generic competition continues to hamper sales. The downturn in the U.S. was made up for by the 25% growth in sales in the emerging markets, which now make up 14% of sales. Unfortunately, as I've pointed out, not all revenue should be treated equally. Glaxo makes a 64.6% operating margin (excluding global research and development) on sales in the U.S., compared with a 38% operating margin in the emerging markets. A straight transfer of revenue from the U.S. to the emerging markets is a losing proposition.

Fortunately, the future for U.S. sales looks a little brighter, because year-over-year comparisons for the off-patent drugs won't be quite as bad. The company also received three new Food and Drug Administration approvals in the past two weeks, including its long-awaited HPV vaccine, Cervarix, which will compete with Merck's (NYSE: MRK) Gardasil, and Votrient, which should be able to compete well with Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) Sutent and Bayer's and Onyx Pharmaceuticals' (Nasdaq: ONXX) Nexavar in the kidney cancer market.

Glaxo is also expecting a nice windfall from sales of swine flu vaccine in the fourth quarter, as well as a boost from its antiviral medication Relenza. The drug doesn't have nearly the sales that Roche and Gilead Sciences' (Nasdaq: GILD) Tamiflu does, but the windfall is nice, although we hope (for the world's sake) that it's not recurring.

A turnaround at the top was welcome. Now Glaxo just needs to get the U.S. tuned back around. If it does, we should see substantial growth at the bottom.

Looking for a pure play on the emerging markets? Check out where Tim Hanson thinks is the next great place to invest.

“The Next Great Investment”… That’s how a top global investor describes India’s potential. On Nov. 28, The Motley Fool’s Tim Hanson returns to India to prove it. Follow along in real time and get his TOP pick first (Hanson returned from China in July with a stock that’s up 169%!). Enter email below.

Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. Pfizer is a recommendation of the Inside Value newsletter service. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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