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Too Much iPhone Love Could Kill OmniVision

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Too much of a good thing can be a very bad thing.

Camera chip designer OmniVision Technologies (Nasdaq: OVTI  ) will soon eviscerate its entire inventory of high-end sensor chips, according to DigiTimes. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) is the main culprit, as the gadget guru is building tons of iPhone 3GS handsets for the holidays. Netbooks and notebooks with built-in cameras add to the load, so we should probably point a little finger at Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  ) , too -- the only laptop maker I know that uses OmniVision technology for sure.

Apple's manufacturing partners have ordered up to 20% more camera chips than they did last year, leaving OmniVision between a rock and a hard place. Being a fabless chip designer, the company depends on third-party chip foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM  ) to crank out those chips.

TSMC is a giant and probably could produce enough chips to fill OmniVision's demands -- but OmniVision is a pretty small fish in a big pond. TSMC isn't likely to make bigger customers like Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM  ) or NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA  ) wait just so OmniVision can keep its supply chain in order. "Your lack of preparation isn't my emergency," and all that.

This is good and bad for OmniVision. It's always nice to sell more product than expected, but OmniVision believes -- and I agree -- that "the ability to … produce and deliver reliable products in large quantities [in a timely manner] is a key competitive differentiator." The chips are manufactured in the Far East, and then typically shipped out to Asian gadget manufacturing shops like Foxconn. Then the finished products need to be schlepped over the Pacific on a boat, which takes a long time.

And it's not like Dell and company can easily turn around and drop in a replacement chip from competitors like Samsung or Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) , either -- we're not talking about commodity chips here, but proprietary designs that are difficult to replace.

So OmniVision's reputation is on the line, which could be bad news for future orders. You don't design a gadget around chips you're not sure will be available when you need 'em. The shortage should be over by mid-November, but that's a tight squeeze in front of the holiday shopping season.

Did OmniVision just show off how popular its technologies have become, or did the company lose the trust of its customers? I'm a little verklempt -- talk amongst yourselves.

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Fool contributor Anders Bylund owns shares in Taiwan Semiconductor, but he holds no other position in any of the companies discussed here. Apple and NVIDIA are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Dell is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. You can check out Anders' holdings and a concise bio if you like, and The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2009, at 3:37 PM, NDProps wrote:

    NOOOO!!

    Why is it so hard to fact check before spreading RUMORS!! OVTI has flatly denied they are having **ANY** production constriants. They ARE NOT hitting any walls in production and to your point TSMC is a partner with OVTI in image sensors so you can bet they WILL give OVTI all the capacity they need. Call IR and ask them to comment on Digitimes and they will deny any such statements or problems.

    OVTI has ALL the cpaacity to fill any orders they recieve from Apple or anyone.

    This Digitimes person,Hans Wu, has reported on OVTI before and has been dead wrong before, yet he keeps doing it so IMO he is in the pocket of some short or hedge fund or is just too lazy to pick up a phone and call for the other side of the rumor.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2009, at 3:55 PM, ovtilong wrote:

    Correct image sensor demand is increasing. Nokia, Apple and others have all indicated this to be true.

    So what makes you think Omnivision can not keep up with demand? They have never had these issues in the past. Their guidance was far less than their historic revenue qtrs, so again why is it they cant meet demand?

    While OVTI clearly remains the technology and market leader and demand for image sensors is strong and growing in many markets, that up until recently never existed, OVTI will remain a GREAT BUY.

    This is a blow out qtr with deman thru the roof.

    Analists who were once short this stock (sell side) have recents targets of $20.

    Enjoy an uneducated media created discount!

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2009, at 9:23 PM, ovtilong wrote:

    One more point,

    Are you incinuating that TSMC is at or near FULL capacity? Would'nt that be QUITE the BULL market. A foundry like TSMC at FULL throttle would be a LONGS dream.

    Guidance this qtr was 155-170M With news like you're reporting, I'd expect 200-230M

    Investor Relations at Omnivision claims there is no supply problems.

    Call 1-(408) 567-3000 for yourself

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 7:52 AM, ovtilong wrote:

    Anders Bylund looks like you got it worng. No supply problems. Check your source better next time. You know, false rumors and bad rumors

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 7:55 AM, ovtilong wrote:

    Sorry, I meant false rumors are BAD rumors

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 8:57 AM, russfischer1013 wrote:

    The implication that the fabless semiconductor model puts Omnivsion at a disadvantage is not born out by the facts. The most recent qtr had Omnivision at a unit volume record of 145 million units. TSMC and Omnivision are involved in two joint ventures, VisEra and XinTec and therefore have common interests. Nvidia and others build product on TSMC's 40 nm process which has had shortages. Omnivision build on a 110nm process in which there may actually be excess capacity.

    Omnivision has a number of drivers for future growth and margin improvement. 1. The image sensor business is blessed with organic unit growth. 2. The average resolution of image sensors is in the process of doubling with obvious growth in total market. 3. The industry is working furiously to move to "monolithic camera modules". These devices will be supplied by the current sensor manufacturers at three times the current unit price for bare sensors, and 60%+ margins. Omnivision is leading this important transition with its' CameraCube product line. 4. In Omnivision's case there will be a transition from 8" wafers to 12" wafers with an expected 40% decrease in unit cost.

    The next two years are a "virtuous perfect storm" for Omnivision

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