We haven't heard much from BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP ) since a couple of weeks ago, when it pulled out $38.6 billion and offered it for PotashCorp (NYSE: POT ) . When that $130-a-share offer was rejected by Potash's board as insufficient, BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, took it directly to PotashCorp's shareholders.
Once that move was made, analysts began speculating about companies that might cough up competing offers. But the most frequently mentioned names, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP ) , Brazil's Vale (NYSE: VALE ) , and Canada's Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK ) , have generally been discarded from conversations because of weak balance sheets or involvement in other projects.
From there the speculation has moved to Chinese interests -- especially to state-owned chemical company Sinochem Corp. -- or to the likelihood of a sweetened offer from BHP Billiton. But the Sinochem possibility elicits extreme caution in Saskatchewan.
Brian Wall, the province's premier, has essentially stated that control from China of the world's biggest potash producers would be less than ideal, especially given China's status as one of the world's largest potash importers. As such, the country has a vested interested in maintaining low prices for the key fertilizer ingredient, which accounts for 15% of Saskatchewan's budget. Mr. Wall's comments were reinforced by his energy minister, who said that the province would have "lots of concerns" about a Chinese stake in PotashCorp.
Nevertheless, China buys about 7% of PotashCorp's output, and so Sinochem's apparently having hired HSBC to advise it of its options has gained more than a little attention. But a close follower of the situation has said this doesn't necessarily mean that a Sinochem bid is likely. After all, China will be cautious about saving face, after being rebuffed by Rio Tinto in a $19.5 billion offer for an increased stake in the big miner last year.
So, despite PotashCorp holding a 22% interest in Sinochmen's fertilizer unit, Sinofert Holdings, and while PotashCorp and Sinochem have apparently held unspecified talks following BHP Billiton's offer, I'm still betting on the Australian company emerging victorious.
I realize that this is all ultimately about the importance of food, and that China is highly concerned about feeding its population. But the Saskatchewan officials' comments were sobering, and with a higher offer, solidly run BHP Billiton should be in the driver's seat.
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