Is FTSE 100 Stalwart Tesco a Good Value?

LONDON -- Capital appreciation is surely the goal of many investors. One method of achieving that is to buy companies with steady earnings growth. If bought when the shares are cheap, two drivers could move the share price up:

  • growth in earnings, and
  • an upwards P/E rerating.

Highly successful fund manager Peter Lynch classified steady growers as Stalwarts, which he typically traded for 20% to 50% share-price gains. But whether buying for gains like that or holding for the longer term, we need to know if reliable earnings growth can continue, and whether the shares are cheap.

Seeking durable growth
Not all companies achieve stable growth, as you can see by the aggregate performance of those in London's premier FTSE 100 index (FTSEINDICES: ^FTSE  ) , where the compound annual earnings-growth rate has been just 0.7% over the last five years:

Year to June

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

FTSE 100 index

6,608

5,626

4,249

4,917

5,946

5,571

Aggregate earnings per share

537

503

427

397

527

557

Consistent, cash flow-backed growth in profits is a promising characteristic in today's markets so, for this series, I'm examining companies with annual earnings growth between 4% and 20%.

One contender is Tesco (LSE: TSCO  ) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY  ) , which owns an international chain of supermarkets and which is the largest player on its home turf in Britain. This table summarizes the company's recent financial record:

Year to February

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Revenue (millions of pounds)

47,298

53,898

56,910

60,455

64,539

Adjusted earnings per share

27.37 pence

29.06 pence

31.8 pence

36.45 pence

37.52 pence

So, earnings have grown at an equivalent 8.2% compound annual growth rate putting Tesco in the Stalwart category.

My table shows a nice trend in earnings per share, but it's a case of "a lovely trend till the bend at the end," as current-year earnings are expected to come in around 32.5 pence -- oops! What happened? Well, Tesco appears to have taken its eye off the ball in its important British home market, "running the stores too hot," which just means not trying as hard to please customers, I reckon.

The company is one of the world's largest retailers with operations in 14 countries and employing over 500,000 people. Yet Britain is important to Tesco, as it accounts for two-thirds of global sales. The shares dropped around 25% back in January when profits slipped and the directors owned up to under-investing in the U.K. store portfolio. My local store looked scruffy and tired; perhaps it was a similar story around the country. 

Right now, the directors' are refocusing on the core U.K. market and a domestic investment program is under way. On Dec. 5, they also announced a strategic review of the company's perennial loss-making U.S. operation, Fresh & Easy, saying, "It is now clear that Fresh & Easy will not deliver acceptable shareholder returns on an appropriate timeframe in its current form." Many are speculating that a U.S. exit is imminent. Maybe, but whatever the outcome, it seems that Tesco has a grip on its own socks again, both at home and abroad. The company has some catching up to do at home, but I think there's a fair chance that a return to steady earnings growth is in the tea leaves.

Tesco's earnings growth and value score
I analyze five indicators to determine whether earnings growth can continue and if the shares offer good value:

1. Growth: earnings slipped during 2012, cash flow and revenue has grown steadily. 2/5

2. Level of debt: net gearing around 41% with borrowing just under twice earnings. 4/5

3. Outlook and current trading: satisfactory recent trading and a cautious outlook. 3/5

4. Enterprise value to free cash flow: the firm's been under investing; I'm scoring low. 1/5

5. Price-to-earnings ratio: a trailing nine and close to historic growth rate. 2/5

Overall, I score Tesco 12 out of 25. I believe this stalwart can restart earnings growth that out-paces that of the wider FTSE 100 but, given what is known, the shares seem to price the company fairly when compared to the FTSE's price to earnings ratio of around 11 and the firm's growth predictions.

Foolish summary
During the current year, cash flow and profits have dipped. Positives include under-control debt and a reasonable outlook statement.

Right now, forecast earnings growth is 5% for 2014, and the forward P/E ratio is around 10 with the shares at 341 pence. Considering that and the other factors analyzed in this article, I think that looks like a fair valuation.

Tesco is one of several steady-earnings-growing stalwarts on the London stock exchange, each with the potential to deliver significant capital appreciation when purchased at sensible prices.

If you, like me, are serious about capital gains, I recommend you now read "The One U.K. Share Warren Buffett Loves," which is a limited-time Motley Fool free report discussing the British Stalwart that has recently attracted some of the American super-investor's billions.

This one U.K. share ticked the boxes for Warren Buffett on growth prospects and cheapness, maybe it will for you, too. Click here to access the report while you still can.

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Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (3)

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  • Report this Comment On December 17, 2012, at 4:32 PM, lemoneater wrote:

    Thanks for your helpful analysis. I'm an investor in Tesco. (I also enjoyed shopping there on my visits to Scotland.) I think it still has more growth ahead.

  • Report this Comment On December 18, 2012, at 11:57 AM, Sotograndeman wrote:

    Balanced piece. Thanks.

    I do think you should've woven in the fact that Buffett is a major shareholder and that he bought significantly more in February when the stock crashed (as he promised to if the stock dropped). The greatest investor of all time showed us his hand. We would be foolish, not Foolish, if we failed to factor this in to our thinking.

    Yes, yes, I know that's what's in the One UK Share Warren Buffett Loves.

    Long TSCO

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