Eyes Down for Barclays Results

LONDON -- Barclays (LSE: BARC  ) (NYSE: BCS  ) is the first of the U.K.'s big five banks to report this season. The company is set to announce its annual results on Tuesday this coming week (Feb. 12 ).

At the time of writing, Barclays shares are trading at 292 pence -- up 70% from six months ago, making it the biggest riser among the banks over the period and an outperformer of the FTSE 100 by a factor of 10.

How will Barclays' business have performed in 2012 compared with last year? And will the results justify the strong performance of the shares? Here's your cut-out-and-check results table!


FY 2011

Forecast FY 2012

Forecast FY growth

Adjusted total income net of insurance claims (billion pounds) 28.51 29.06 1.9%
Adjusted profit before tax (billion pounds) 5.59 6.86 22.7%
Adjusted basic earnings per share (EPS, pence) 27.7 34.6 24.9%
Dividend per share (pence) 6.0 6.5 8.3%

Adjusted versus statutory
The figures in the table above are on an "adjusted" basis rather than a "statutory" basis. You'll find the statutory figures in the consolidated income statement, but you'll have to root around a bit to find the adjusted numbers, which the company reckons give a better indication of the bank's underlying performance.

The adjusted figures exclude various "exceptional" or "one-off" items, but such items have been a regular annual occurrence since the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, the adjusted figures do provide a line to where the statutory figures might be once the exceptionals drop away and business returns to something like normal.

The numbers
At the nine-month stage, Barclays adjusted total income net of insurance claims stood at 22.35 billion pounds, so look out for a Q4 number of around 6.7 billion pounds to take the full-year figure to just over 29 billion pounds (2% ahead of last year).

Analysts are expecting a much bigger improvement at the profit level. If their estimates are on the button, expect to see adjusted profit before tax of 6.86 billion pounds -- up around 23% on the 2011 performance, with adjusted EPS a little higher still.

We can note that at the nine-month stage, while adjusted profit before tax was up 18%, statutory profit was down a massive 86% to 712 million pounds as a result of various exceptional charges, impairments and provisions. The full-year statutory number isn't going to look pretty, especially as Barclays has just announced additional provisions totalling 1 billion pounds for mis-selling Payment Protection Insurance to the public and Interest Rate Hedging Products to small and medium-sized businesses.

However, the underlying profit and cash generation is expected to support an 8% hike in the dividend from 6 pence a share in 2011 to 6.5 pence. Look out for the declaration of a Q4 dividend of 3.5 pence, following 1 pence dividends in each of the first three quarters.

The people
There were wholesale changes in the Barclays boardroom in 2012 in the wake of the Libor-fixing scandal: Chairman Marcus Agius, CEO Bob Diamond, and Chief Operating Officer Jerry del Missier all walked.

City grandee Sir David Walker was appointed the new chairman and Antony Jenkins the new CEO. Both men have talked in general terms about Barclays' future -- Jenkins hopes "to restore Barclays reputation," for example -- but shareholders will be hoping for a bit more nitty-gritty in the upcoming results.

Still cheap
Despite the stunning 70% rise in Barclays shares over the past six months, the stock continues to look "cheap" at a price of 292 pence.

Tangible net asset value per share at the last reckoning (Sept. 30) was 379 pence, so the shares are trading at a 23% discount. In addition, if EPS for 2012 meet analyst expectations, the earnings multiple is a mere 8.4.

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