The Buying Opportunity You Won't Want to Miss

Recs

5

It didn't happen exactly as I predicted, but it's finally happened. And it means that the world's fastest-growing stocks are available for cheap.

Before I get to the whos, whys, and wheres, though, let me tell you who we have to thank.

Here comes the cabal
Although owners of heavily shorted stocks such as Ford (NYSE: F) and Qwest (NYSE: Q) may disagree with me, short sellers are crucial to healthy markets.

By making the case for stocks to fall, short sellers make the market more efficient. Shorts temper excessive optimism, helping us all avoid the protracted painful corrections that are its consequence.

Where shorts didn't tread
Optimism, however, had been the defining characteristic of Chinese markets until this year. Chinese stocks gained 130% in 2006, and another 97% in 2007. As a result, money has moved into the Chinese markets at a remarkable clip, and stories abound about Chinese housewives, cab drivers, and fishmongers speculating in the market.

Of course, there's also been nothing to stop them.

See, you can't short stocks in China. Without investors scouring the market for weaknesses, those same housewives, cab drivers, and fishmongers have been treated to nothing but good news. That made them overconfident, overzealous, and now overexposed to an unquestionably richly-valued basket of stocks.

It won't be that way for long ...
And China's Security Regulatory Commission -- fearing a stock market crash -- was reluctant to stop them. That's why the country held off for so long on allowing investors to short stocks.

But it's gotten so bad in China that the CSRC finally approved shorting at the end of September. What this indicates to me is that they believe all optimism has been purged from the marketplace. When that happens, we've reached the point of maximum pessimism -- the precise time that master international investor Sir John Templeton would have told you to invest.

And you should consider that. Because China bellwethers such as China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU), and PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) are available for lower multiples than we've seen in years.

Get ready to buy
That's why you should be licking your chops.

China's rapid economic growth will be the global economic story of the next 10 to 20 years. The opportunities are huge, and the country is growing richer by the day. In fact, our Motley Fool Global Gains international investing team recently returned from a research trip to China, where we were almost universally impressed by the companies we met with and the growth trajectories they displayed.

That does not mean, however, that we'd be willing to pay any price to own them. Today, however, thanks to the decline in the Chinese market, we're looking hard at a long list of Chinese stocks. To see what we're recommending, click here to try Global Gains free for 30 days. There is no obligation to subscribe.

This article was first published on August 20, 2007 as "The Buying Opportunity You Won't Want to Miss." It has been updated.

Tim Hanson does not own shares of any company mentioned. Baidu.com is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. The Fool's disclosure policy believes Yi Jianlian is going to be shocked to discover the New Jersey ain't that much better than Wisconsin.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On October 19, 2008, at 2:13 PM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Tim,

    I have to say your clue bag is totally empty. You are recommending readers to look at BIDU at 239 as an attractive valuation. My God man, learn how to read a chart!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=D&yr=3&m...

    The 50ma is below the 200ma and the 200 is starting to turn south. In the not to distant future the price will drop back down to test the critical support at $200 and guess what it won't be there. From that point on it will be like stepping off a cliff.

    The price will drop down to the gap formed in April May 07. Approx $110 looking at this chart. You are basically recommending to buy a stock that is about to take a 60% hair cut. But that is just the beginning the next gap is at around the $70 range and its coming also.

    Funny you should mention Ford as a stock that is heavily shorted. Thanks to that in part, it has created a huge buying op. Ford was all the way down to approx $1.90 on the 10th of Oct 08. That's where you should have been recommending a buying op. I did. On the 11th Ford Gapped all the way to $3. The huge gap created a second op to get back in when it closed the gap. (16 Oct). Friday Ford closed just shy of $2.5. The hollow doji amongst the red and black ines changes the way Ford chart looks to the less seasoned trader like yourself. Ford will advance to $3 in a week or so. Then there will be some positive news about gov bailouts or relief for the auto industry. This will enable the breakout and Ford will run to the target range.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=0...

    Ford will run between the 50ma and the 200ma. ($4.28- 5.78).Target That's where the herd will by it at the recommendation of the GURU's like yourself. But at that level it is diminishing returns. The chance of a double beyond that is slim. By the time you figure out this, the play on Ford will be over. Is that why they call you guys GURU's? The market we are in is a traders market. Buy and hold will come at a very painful price.

    The Ford play is right in front of your nose and you can't see it. Ford only has to run to $4 to be a 100% gainer. BIDU will have to move to $478 a share to be 100% gainer. I project BIDU to be at least a 70% loss from your buy recommendation at $239

    The biggest play that will come out of the mess the markets are in, is Homeland Security Stocks.

    We have not seen the worst by far. Wall street is totally corrupt in the average citizens eye. When the economy gets worse and all seems much gloomier. Suppose for a moment that our friends the Al brother's decide we need another 911. (They are already planning the specific details) Except on a bigger scale. Where do the Al bros like to blow themselfs up?

    The market.

    What 2 retailers are doing well these days?

    Walmart and Costco

    What would happen to our economy if the Al Brothers blew themselves up at 50+ Walmarts all over the small town USA at the same time some Sat morn?

    What would happen to the Stock valuations?

    Do you have a target on the DOW under this scenerio?

    Try 3555-3843, a level never tested for support. This was the launch pad for the rally that start in late 1994. In only 14 years the Dow climbed from under 4000 to over 14000.

    Ten years before that (1985) it was at 1200.

    What segment of stocks would run up in another post 911?

    Homeland Security Stocks

    Do you know how long the run lasted in these stocks after 911? Just under 30 days straight.

    Do you know the best play in this basket of stocks?

    rivet does

    Have you even thought about this seeing how you are a GURU?

    Are you aware we fly 24 hour surveillance of the Canadian border out of Great Falls MT?

    Are you aware Al Bros come across the Canadian border?

    I know this is a lot to think about for a GURU but the above scenario is very real and possible.

    The Al Bros are just waiting for Obama to get elected.

    What got us out of the first Depression?

    Economic policy or WWII?

    Who would we rather have fighting WWIII?

    Any way you look at it Homeland Security stocks will become a hedge.

    rivet

  • Report this Comment On October 24, 2008, at 1:08 AM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Tim, Capt Kerk selling 7 million and possible getting ready to dump another 133 million was enough to get me to sell all my Ford as soon as that news came out. What an idiot he is to announce to everyone he plans on dumping 133 million shares. I'll keep an eye on Ford. Capt kerk will most likely send it below a $1 dumping that many shares. I walked away with a 20% gain which I put into DXO Weds and Thurs am. The price of Crude has bottomed IMO for the near term and will bounce. If crude goes to $85 a barrel DXO will double bag to approx $10. In the current market any gain is good to take. A double bag is great. BIDU off $36 today 14% closed at $212. It's getting ready to slice thru the $200 support level like a hot knife thru butter maybe as early as Tommorow (Fri 24).

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=D&b=5&g=...

    I went back and looked closely at the charts. Target for the first bounce is $111.5-121.5. BIDU is about to take one big SWACKING. What does that company do? Doesn't bode well for the sector of the economy. I haven't looked at the financials. After all most financials are mostly made up of lies anyway. Just look at the mess all the analysts have gotten us into by over valuing everything.

    I have a friend that is a commercial real estate appraiser. Ten years ago he quit doing residential appraisals because of the pressure from the banks, Realtors, and builders to come in line with the numbers. Basically over value everything so their commissions were bigger. He refused and lost business. He told me 10 years ago we were headed for a Crisis in the Housing industry 10 times worse than that of the S&L scandal. I think he underestimated.

    Back to BIDU $111-121 near term $65-75.6 12 months or greater. BIDU is best to be shorted IMO The bullish play on it is long gone.

    rivet

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2008, at 3:00 AM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Tim, Here's what I said last Thursday predicting the drop thru $200.

    re

    It's getting ready to slice thru the $200 support level like a hot knife thru butter maybe as early as Tommorow (Fri 24).

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=D&b=5&g=...

    I went back and looked closely at the charts. Target for the first bounce is $111.5-121.5. BIDU is about to take one big SWACKING.

    ----------- Sun 26 oct

    Did you see that chart GURU Tim, didn't even stop at $200 gapped right past 200 from the close at 212.

    Oh I forgot you don't know how to read a chart. Most GURU's don't in fact they don't believe in such BS.

    The chart says the support above $200 is resistance it will never close above again. $111.5-$121 is fast approaching. Should see a bounce play at that level. This is a traders market and you have to have a traders mentality or you will lose your axx. Buy hand hold won't work. Right now the Dow and the S&P are fighting to stay above the lows.

    Warren Buffet is doing all he can to keep people in the market and keep it propped up. If it doesn't hold it he will lose a lot of money. When has Warren Buffet ever told anyone what he intends to buy and at what level. Notice GE is well below the $22 support he tried to build under it. GS at $118 and 122. Warren have you lost your touch? GS will be back at $80-85 soon.

    The worse things get the better the Homeland Security play will look. Right now no one is even thinking about it but they will. rivet just sees things long before the herd.

    rivet

  • Report this Comment On November 17, 2008, at 3:04 PM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Whoa there Tim look at BIDU today off $45,- 25% to low of $130. Wow that's almost 50% haircut from where you recommend your readers to buy it at $239 and I recommended to short it to the bounce target which should be coming up here pretty soon. Target for the first bounce is $111.5-121.5.

    Nice work Tim DOW and the S&P are looking bit shaky lately keep flirting with the lows.

    You should be recommending DXO as a long term play on the price of Crude

    just here to help

    motleyrivet

  • Report this Comment On November 17, 2008, at 10:24 PM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Whoa there Tim look at BIDU today off $45,- 25% to low of $130. Wow that's almost 50% haircut from where you recommend your readers to buy it at $239 and I recommended to short it to the bounce target which should be coming up here pretty soon. Target for the first bounce is $111.5-121.5.

    Nice work Tim DOW and the S&P are looking bit shaky lately keep flirting with the lows.

    You should be recommending DXO as a long term play on the price of Crude

    just here to help

    motleyrivet

  • Report this Comment On November 19, 2008, at 4:38 PM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Tim, I said "Target for the first bounce is $111.5-121.5."

    Well BIDU closed at $111 today as promised. In the news market off 5%+ talk of Fed rate cut. With the DOW and the S&P Below the major support levels a rate cut seems in order. This might be the stimulus that gets BIDU to bounce. Sell at the top the rally because it is going much lower along with the DOW and the S&P.

    To get an idea just look at GE $14.5 today ole Warren Buffet told us to buy at $22. Bad idea, GE is the barometer for the DOW and I say the Barometer will bottom at $7-8. That is a 50% haircut from 14 which the DOW will mirror, just under 4000 for the DOW 3555-3843.

    The biggest problem is the stimulus packages the Fed is doing while the market is coming down the backside are not going to prevent the market from reaching those levels. Then once we get there any further stimulus will have no effect because of the numbing effect.

    That's when we will become very vulnerable to an all out terrorist attack of a magnitude not yet scene.

    I'm not sure what will happen first the market bottom, or the terrorist attack which will send the market to the bottom.

    At any rate the only Segment of the market that will go up is Homeland Security Stocks.

    As I have said before the best name in the basket is

    HOMELAND SECURITY CORPORATION

    HSCC with a OS of only 189 million and a float around 50 million most of which has already been bought, a surge in demand will make the price go up to say the least.

    just here to help

    rivet

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2008, at 1:10 AM, motleyrivet wrote:

    Tim, BIDU at $112. That's a 50% loss from where you recommended your foolish readers to by at $239. I.d say it will lose another 58% approx to $65 a share, but before it does that we should see a bounce. How high doesn't matter Paulson and all the kings men can't put this mess back together again.

    Since being rolled out a month ago, the Treasury Department-administered bailout has undergone two major revisions. One was its abandonment of the original plan to buy banks' toxic assets. The second was its decision to let the Obama administration decide how to spend the second half of the $700 billion.

    "It doesn't instill confidence; it erodes it," Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, said of the shifts in course.

    "The perception on Wall Street is that Washington is rudderless," he added. "There's no leadership on the pressing issues of the day ... and time is running out."

    Market and all these stocks are going to seek and equilibrium point regardless of all the money pumping that is being done. They have it backwards. They're trying to wipe the markets azz before it takes a dump.

    rivet

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